The Genius of TheAlrightyOne’s South Vietnam Alternate History Video
Note:
This article was originally written on Tuesday November 2, 2023. I wrote it because I had seen TheAlrightyOne's alternate history video on South Vietnam, and I just couldn't stop thinking about it. I had some things to say about it, things I couldn't really express or articulate any other way. So, I basically decided to write this long article or journal, whatever you want to call it, just gushing about his video and recommending you watch it for yourself. I especially liked the interconnectivity between his video on South Vietnam, his video on the Khmer Republic, and his video on the Kingdom of Laos.
They were all apart of the same shared universe. Not a cinematic universe, but just a literary universe or video universe for lack of a better term. It also helped that I was becoming obsessed with South Vietnamese music as well as 70s Cambodian music 🇰🇭 as well, music that was written and preformed by Cambodian artists 🇰🇭 prior to the Khmer Rouge taking power in Cambodia, known then as the Khmer Republic. I was just really into that era, and the culture of South Vietnam and the Khmer Republic during that time.
I wrote this in the Notes app on my MacBook Air 💻, because you can insert pictures in the Drafts app, which is the app I usually use to write my stuff. But, in Notes, you can post pictures. So, I was able to talk about TheAlrightyOne's videos, and post the flags of the various nations involved. Of course, I didn't just talk about the videos by TheAlrightyOne. I also wrote about my own speculation or extrapolations about the alternate timeline that he had created in this series of videos. Because he just focused on the main subject of his videos, like South Vietnam, the Khmer Republic, and the Kingdom of Laos. He didn't really get into how these three countries winning the Vietnam War 🇻🇳 instead the communists ☭ would've affected the wider world. He never gets into how it would affect the United States 🇺🇸, how it would affect China 🇨🇳, and how it would affect Taiwan 🇹🇼. Because the war in Vietnam had an effect on all three of those countries, especially the US 🇺🇸 and China 🇨🇳.
The culture of the US 🇺🇸 and trajectory of US politics 🇺🇸 was completely changed by that war, and our defeat in that war. And China 🇨🇳's fate was also affected by the war. It was the fact that the war was going so badly for the anti-communist side, including the US 🇺🇸, and the communist side ☭ was winning that pushed the US 🇺🇸 to normalize relations with China 🇨🇳 and eventually recognize them as the one true legitimate China over Taiwan 🇹🇼. So, a communist victory ☭ in the war in Vietnam meant a diplomatic win for China 🇨🇳 and a diplomatic defeat for Taiwan 🇹🇼. But, if the anti-communists won, then perhaps there wouldn't have been this push by the Nixon administration to normalize relations with the People's Republic of China 🇨🇳, and recognize it as the one and only China at the expense of the Republic of China 🇹🇼 in Taiwan.
Perhaps, the US 🇺🇸 would have still continued recognizing Taiwan 🇹🇼 as the legitimate title holder of China, and China 🇨🇳 would have just remained a pariah state. Or perhaps, the US 🇺🇸 and other countries would have chosen to recognize both China 🇨🇳 and Taiwan 🇹🇼 in a sort of "Two China" policy, just like how North Korea 🇰🇵 and South Korea 🇰🇷 are both recognized by the international community as legitimate sovereign nations and both have membership within the UN 🇺🇳. Despite both Koreas 🇰🇵🇰🇷 not officially recognizing each other, and claiming the entire Korean peninsula as part of their own territory. I go into more detail about that in the main piece.
But, speaking of North Korea 🇰🇵 and South Korea 🇰🇷, I really didn't talk about them a whole lot in this article or discussion or review, whatever you want to label this as. Mostly because I figured that the de facto situation in Korea would not have changed no matter which side won the Vietnam War 🇻🇳, short of the war escalating into World War III, which was never actually going to happen since neither side actually wanted that. The peninsula would've still remained divided, just like it ended up being in our timeline. I mean, if the communist side ☭ winning the war didn't cause Korea to reunify, then I doubt the anti-communist side winning the war would've either.
I mean, both Koreas 🇰🇵🇰🇷 participated in the war to be sure. North Korea 🇰🇵 supported North Vietnam 🇻🇳, and and South Korea 🇰🇷 supported South Vietnam. They got involved in the war because they sympathized with the two Vietnams' plight, and help each side achieve what they couldn't achieve in their own war, the Korean War 🇰🇵🇰🇷. And they both kind of treated the war in Vietnam as a proxy war between themselves.
It would also be helpful to mention that South Korea 🇰🇷 in the 60s and 70s was nothing like the South Korea 🇰🇷 of today. South Korea 🇰🇷 was an autocracy, under the leadership of a man named Park Chung-hee, who took power in a military coup. And while South Korea 🇰🇷 experienced high economic growth and became a rich country under his leadership, it lacked many basic rights and freedoms. The kind that we normally associate with a thriving liberal democracy, which Park's South Korea 🇰🇷 was not.
So, both North Korea 🇰🇵 and South Korea 🇰🇷 were both dictatorships during the time of the Vietnam War 🇻🇳, and it was really more of a contest between two autocracies, one left-wing, and the other right-wing. Pretty much an exact mirror of what China 🇨🇳 and Taiwan 🇹🇼 were during this time as well. Not like today where it's a contest between an autocracy and a democracy, which is also what the nature of the relationship between China 🇨🇳 and Taiwan 🇹🇼 is today as well. Ultimately, it was North Korea 🇰🇵 that came out on top and got to have the last laugh as their guy, North Vietnam 🇻🇳 won, and South Korea 🇰🇷's guy, South Vietnam didn't. And North Korea 🇰🇵 managed to help North Vietnam 🇻🇳 win without really sending any of their own troops like South Korea 🇰🇷 did for South Vietnam.
Speaking of which, North Korea 🇰🇵 was involved in a different way. In little known conflict called the Korean DMZ Conflict 🇰🇵🇰🇷, North Korea 🇰🇵 decided to launch attacks into South Korea 🇰🇷, perceiving their increasing involvement in Vietnam as a sign that their defenses along the DMZ (Demilitarized Zone) were weakening since they were being relocated elsewhere. So, they decided to attack, since their enemies' defenses were at their weakest, and they would probably never get another chance like this ever again. They basically took advantage of the chaos caused by Vietnam, and attacked South Korea 🇰🇷 when they felt that they were at their most vulnerable and distracted. It was a very low-level conflict, and the South Koreans 🇰🇷 and the Americans 🇺🇸 managed to repel the attacks without much difficulty.
I mean hundreds of people died on both sides, but it wasn't a huge conflict where thousands or millions of people died. It wasn't the Second Korean War 🇰🇵🇰🇷 or anything, despite some people calling it that. It never escalated and got out of hand to that point. If it did, then we probably would've had World War III.
There other such clashes and incidents along the DMZ before and since then, but this conflict was considered the most significant escalation of tensions since the Korean War 🇰🇵🇰🇷 itself. It was certainly the most significant loss of life between the two sides since the Korean War 🇰🇵🇰🇷, and nothing since has come close, thank God. But yeah, that conflict along the DMZ is probably one of the main reasons why the US 🇺🇸 will probably never fully withdraw from Korea, since they'd just be leaving South Korea 🇰🇷 vulnerable to attacks from the North 🇰🇵.
Sorry to get political, but this is another reason why Donald Trump should not get re-elected since he has not promised to pull the US 🇺🇸 out of NATO, pretty much tearing that alliance apart, but he has also promised to pull the US 🇺🇸 out of South Korea 🇰🇷, and also probably Japan 🇯🇵 too. And I'm sure he'll probably make good on those promises if he's ever re-elected since there would be no more guard rails in place, and no one to stand in the way of him implementing his most crazy and foolish ideas since he's already said that he wants to staff his White House and the entire US government 🇺🇸 with nothing but sycophantic and over zealous loyalists (yes men in other words).
If that happens, if Trump pulled the US 🇺🇸 out of South Korea 🇰🇷, then expect more violence along the DMZ like this conflict I just described, perhaps even a full-on invasion by North Korea 🇰🇵. After all, who or what would stop them? Uncle Sam wouldn't be there anymore to stand in their way of having their way with South Korea 🇰🇷. So, that was an important lesson, an important takeaway from the Korean DMZ Conflict 🇰🇵🇰🇷, that if the US 🇺🇸 gets too distracted with another conflict and diverts forces away from Korea, or if the US 🇺🇸 fully withdraws from Korea, all we'd be doing is invite and enable further North Korean aggression 🇰🇵 against South Korea 🇰🇷.
The takeaway for South Korea 🇰🇷 was that they cannot divert any of their military forces away from the peninsula, and commit to a foreign conflict outside of the peninsula. That will just weaken their defenses, and invite attacks from the North 🇰🇵. That's probably why they've decided not to get directly involved, and commit significant amounts of its own military forces to any of the US 🇺🇸's various foreign wars since then. If they did, they only did from a far, providing humanitarian aid to a country at war that the US 🇺🇸 supports. Or, if they do get more directly involved with their own boots on the ground, it's more in a support role as medical support or peacekeeping. That's essentially what they did in both Iraq 🇮🇶 and Afghanistan 🇦🇫.
They've been very vague, and wishy-washy about whether they would take part in a Taiwan Contingency 🇹🇼 if war ever broke out between China 🇨🇳 and Taiwan 🇹🇼. Most experts and analysts say that they wouldn't because their national security would not be directly affected by a new war in the Taiwan Strait in a way that it would affect Japan 🇯🇵's national security or the Philippines 🇵🇭's national security.
They would likely only provide indirect support by providing military, humanitarian, and financial aid to Taiwan 🇹🇼, sort of like what they're doing with Ukraine 🇺🇦 right now. And they would only send their own military forces to Taiwan 🇹🇼 and the Taiwan Strait if they were directly attacked by China 🇨🇳 for whatever reason, or if North Korea 🇰🇵 got involved somehow. South Korea 🇰🇷's involvement and commitment to Taiwan 🇹🇼 would largely depend on what North Korea 🇰🇵 does, and how the war would affect the peninsula and the wider region.
Which brings us to the other big takeaway from the Korean DMZ Conflict 🇰🇵🇰🇷: North Korea 🇰🇵 is more than willing to take advantage of chaos and violence going on elsewhere in Asia, and attack South Korea 🇰🇷 if they believe that South Korea 🇰🇷 and the US 🇺🇸 are sufficiently distracted by that other crisis. A lot of experts and analysts express concern that if China 🇨🇳 invades Taiwan 🇹🇼, and if South Korea 🇰🇷 gets involved, then North Korea 🇰🇵 might try to exploit that, and attack South Korea 🇰🇷 while it's distracted. Then, it would inevitable turn this already large war contained to the Taiwan Strait into an even larger war that engulfs the entire region, and both sides end up fighting each other on a second front essentially. Then you'd really have World War III. While I do think that it is a possibility, and it shouldn't be discounted, I don't think it's likely.
I think North Korea 🇰🇵 would probably do nothing if a Chinese invasion of Taiwan 🇨🇳🇹🇼 happened, other than give token verbal support and endorsement to China 🇨🇳 for its invasion or attempted invasion, like say, "We side with China 🇨🇳, we empathize with China 🇨🇳, and we hope they succeed," and then just leave it at that. And I imagine South Korea 🇰🇷 would exercise caution, and take a more measured approach to supporting Taiwan 🇹🇼 so as to not provoke North Korea 🇰🇵 in any way. And I doubt China 🇨🇳 would egg North Korea 🇰🇵 on to attack South Korea 🇰🇷 to divert the US 🇺🇸's attention and resources to defending South Korea 🇰🇷 because if they did that, then they'd have to get involved too. And China 🇨🇳 really doesn't want to have to fight two-front war, let alone one where the second front is in Korea.
No body wants a war to break out in Korea because everyone knows that it would be an incredibly difficult and draining experience for both sides, and would weaken both sides. And that's not even taking into account the war escalating into a nuclear war ☢️, with both sides nuking each other ☢️. Neither the US 🇺🇸 nor China 🇨🇳 would have anything to gain from hostilities resuming in extremum on the Korean peninsula. So, both sides would likely take steps to avoid that outcome. And if the war spread and expanded into Korea any way, despite both sides trying to avoid it, or rather one side trying to avoid it and the other side not, then it would like be through a comedy of errors and series of bad decisions. Mostly on the Chinese and North Korean side 🇨🇳🇰🇵, but also the American and South Korean side 🇺🇸🇰🇷 too.
But, enough about Korea. I think this note has gone on long enough. I'll end it here so you can start reading the main piece, which I hope you all will like. But, just one more thing. I wrote a few updates or additions that I will also put on here. They're mostly expansions on things that I wrote about in the main piece that I didn't mention or didn't really explain in-depth, or they're things I wanted to add on, to tell you about some new information I came across and wanted to put into the article, review, journal, whatever, without disrupting the flow of the main text. You'll see what I mean when you read it.
Oh, and I did include a Nazi flag in one of the updates because I was showing it in contrast to the current German flag 🇩🇪 to make a point about how the US 🇺🇸 and its allies managed to successfully change Germany, on the political and cultural level after World War II, until it became the thriving democracy that it is today and would never fall victim to Nazism, or fascism, or any kind of far-right ideology ever again. And I mentioned this along with Japan 🇯🇵 as the only two examples in history where the US 🇺🇸 attempted to nation-build a war-torn country that they were occupying, and it actually worked.
The US 🇺🇸 tried to do the same thing in Iraq 🇮🇶, and the US 🇺🇸 and NATO tried to do the same thing in Afghanistan 🇦🇫, and they really didn't work, or at least, they didn't work out the way they wanted. Iraq 🇮🇶 still has its post-invasion and post-Saddam government today, but it didn't exactly become the rich, thriving capitalist democracy that was more overtly pro-US 🇺🇸 that the Bush administration was hoping it would be. You know, Iraq 🇮🇶 didn't become the next Germany 🇩🇪 or the next Japan 🇯🇵, the envy of the Middle East that the US 🇺🇸 was hoping it would become after they invaded and toppled Saddam Hussein's government.
Despite the US 🇺🇸 still being there after all these years, Iraq 🇮🇶 just became a client state or tributary state to Iran 🇮🇷, and a place where various countries bomb terrorist and militia groups that they don't like, while the Iraqis 🇮🇶 themselves have very little say in the matter. I mean, Turkey 🇹🇷 recently bombed Iraq 🇮🇶 after the Kurdish Marxist militia group called the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) committed a terrorist attack in Ankara on October 1, 2023. And the US 🇺🇸 carried out all sorts of airstrikes in Iraq 🇮🇶 after the Israel-Hamas war 🇮🇱 in Gaza started, in response to Iranian proxies 🇮🇷 attacking US forces 🇺🇸 in Iraq 🇮🇶.
So, I showed the Nazi flag, and contrast it with the current German flag 🇩🇪 to make that point that was the one of the few nation-building projects that the US 🇺🇸 undertook, and actually succeeded at. But, if the Nazi flag makes you uncomfortable, and you don't want to see it at all, even in a purely historical or educational context (even I personally don't consider this article to be educational), that's totally fine. I understand. I'm perturbed by it too, it makes me uncomfortable too.
But, I felt that I had to include it since there was no other way to illustrate the point I was making without showing both flags top-to-bottom. I had shown both flags of Japan 🇯🇵, both the old imperial flag and the current flag to show the difference between the Empire of Japan 🇯🇵 and modern-day Japan 🇯🇵, and I had shown the flags of other unsavory regimes and groups like the Soviet flag ☭, the Khmer Rouge flag, the East German flag, and even the Ba'athist or Saddam era flag of Iraq 🇮🇶. I mean, the fact that I included the East German flag pretty much removed any pretense, like all bets are off.
I mean, I posted a companion piece to a review I did of the Netflix anime show, Ghost in the Shell: SAC_2045 in which I talked about the Confederacy, and showed the two Confederate flags. If I'm willing to show that, then I shouldn't be so reluctant to show the Nazi flag since the Nazi flag and the Confederate flag are two flags that are considered racist and offensive, and elicit strong emotions in people. I would lump the Apartheid-era South African flag and the Rhodesian flag into that category as well. But, just to know I only included the flag for historical purposes, and I don't at all endorse Nazi Germany. I don't like that flag, and I hate Nazis, I hate fascism, I hate the far-right, and I hate Adolf Hitler. If you read any of the other stuff I've posted on here, that should be blatantly obvious. And just know that if you find that flag uncomfortable to look at, and don't want to see it at all, then I can stop reading after the main part of the article is done, or you can skip the first update, and read the other two. With all of that out of the way, enjoy.
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A lot of people have done alternate history scenarios exploring what would’ve happened if South Vietnam had won the Vietnam War 🇻🇳, but the YouTuber known as TheAlrightyOne took much different approach from other “what if South Vietnam won” scenarios. Most “what if South Vietnam won” scenarios usually involve something the United States 🇺🇸 does. But in this case, it was something that the United States 🇺🇸 doesn’t do: get directly involved.
TheAlrightyOne’s video suggests that the only way South Vietnam could’ve survived and won the war is if the United States 🇺🇸 never got directly involved; putting their own boots on the ground, and essentially taking over the entire war, and making it more about them; let’s be honest here. And the only way that could happen is if South Vietnam was more stable, and better able to handle the Viet Cong insurgency on its own than it was in our timeline.
In our timeline, South Vietnam was not only not a democracy, but was also very corrupt and dysfunctional. After the despotic Ngô Đình Diệm was overthrown in a coup, the country was taken over by a military junta essentially that was ineffective, corrupt, and unable to make even the most basic decisions without some infighting. And as a result of the South Vietnamese government’s weakness and corruption, the Viet Cong and the North Vietnamese 🇻🇳 were able to achieve victory in the war, against all odds. Even when South Vietnam was being helped by the US 🇺🇸, and the US 🇺🇸 was doing most of the fighting for them, they still couldn’t win. And it’s all because their government was weak and ineffective, and didn’t have much legitimacy in the eyes of the people, and because the government relied too much on the US 🇺🇸 to do most of their fighting for them.
So, TheAlrightyOne crafted a scenario in-which the US 🇺🇸 never gets directly involved in the Vietnam War 🇻🇳, and the Viet Cong is never able to gain enough traction or power to actually pose a threat to the South Vietnamese state. The key to this is a largely forgotten coup attempt in 1960. People who know the history of Vietnam, and the history of the Vietnam War 🇻🇳 specifically, know that Diệm was overthrown in a bloody coup 🩸 in 1963 due to his brutal crackdown on the majority Buddhist population ☸️.
Diệm was a Catholic ✝️, and a pretty hardcore one at that. He had no tolerance for any other religion, especially Buddhism ☸️, which he found particularly offensive and distasteful. So, he did everything he could to suppress the Buddhist religion ☸️ in the country, even though as I said, the majority of the population was Buddhist ☸️. So, this attempt to violently suppress and ban Buddhism ☸️ was not only not possible, but it ultimately proved to be his undoing.
The violent suppression of Buddhism ☸️ in South Vietnam led to one of the most famous and haunting incidents and images of the Vietnam War era 🇻🇳, the Buddhist monk ☸️, Thích Quảng Đức lighting himself on fire 🔥. He wasn’t the only Buddhist monk ☸️ in South Vietnam who lit himself on fire 🔥 in protest of Diệm’s policies, but he was the most infamous example because it was caught on camera, and was shown on television and in newspapers all over the world.
The image of seeing this man burning alive in the streets shocked the entire world, and pretty much made Diệm’s position untenable and his leadership unsustainable. Even the Americans 🇺🇸 lost all their faith in him. And so, with the backing of the CIA, the South Vietnamese military launched a coup d’etat against him, which resulted in his murder. From then on out, the country would be ruled by unstable and corrupt military junta that failed to win the support of the majority of the people.
But, the problems that led to Diệm’s downfall were already existent within the country, and were already festering under the surface before they even exploded in 1963. Diệm already put these anti-Buddhist policies 🚫☸️ in place before 1963, and they were already starting to have a negative effect on the country, and were already helping the Viet Cong grow in numbers and strength. And there were already plenty of people within the South Vietnamese military who were fed up with his rule, and were ready and willing to take matters in their own hands.
One of these was the 1960 coup attempt, in which South Vietnamese Army Lieutenant Colonel Vương Văn Đông and Colonel Nguyễn Chánh Thi attempted to overthrow Diệm. The coup failed, that’s why it’s called a “coup attempt” and not a coup. But, TheAlrightyOne made this coup attempt key to his alternate history scenario. Diệm’s overthrow was inevitable, and his regime was unsalvageable and irredeemable.
Diệm was a pretty bad guy, and not a very smart one either. I mean, it was his decision to end reunification talks with North Vietnam 🇻🇳, and cancel the reunification vote in 1955 that started the war in the first place; not that the US 🇺🇸 wasn’t complicit in that decision, they were, they encouraged him to do so, but it was still ultimately his call. But, having him be ousted by a coup much earlier would’ve prevented the situation from getting too out of hand, and would’ve allowed the military to reestablish internal order, and undo everything that he did.
And that’s exactly what happens within TheAlrightyOne’s alternate history scenario. The 1960 coup attempt is successful, Diệm is overthrown, and Nguyễn Chánh Thi becomes the new leader of South Vietnam. I’m guessing that the reason why TheAlrightyOne chose this as the point of divergence in his alternate timeline is that it’s earliest point in which the South Vietnamese government could have still turned things around, and shifted the economic, political, and military situation in their favor. If South Vietnam was going to achieve victory without the US 🇺🇸’s direct involvement, it would’ve had to have started here with the 1960 coup succeeding.
I’m also guessing that the reason why TheAlrightyOne chose Thi because he saw him as the only one would’ve been strong and charismatic enough to be a true unifying leader who the South Vietnamese people could get behind and support, without coming across an American installed puppet 🇺🇸, which is an issue that plagued the South Vietnamese leaders that took power after the 1963 coup; after all, the reason why their coup succeeded was because it had the backing of the CIA. But, because this coup wouldn’t have had the backing of the Americans 🇺🇸, and would’ve been something that the South Vietnamese military had done completely independently, this South Vietnamese government wouldn’t have that issue.
What TheAlrightyOne envisions in his video is that Thi assumes control of the government thanks to his successful coup in 1960, and he’s able to restore internal order to the country, overturning all of Diệm’s anti-Buddhist policies 🚫☸️, and then focuses on strengthening the economy and the military. With a much more stable and stronger South Vietnam with a much more charismatic and beloved leader, the Viet Cong movement is never really able to gain the same amount of traction and power as they did in our timeline. Diệm’s poor treatment of Buddhists ☸️ was very important propaganda and recruitment tool for the Viet Cong, and without it or the American Involvement 🇺🇸, they would’ve been much weaker.
And indeed, in this alternate timeline that TheAlrightyOne crafted, they are a lot weaker, and are not as popular with the South Vietnamese people as they were in our timeline. That, along with brutal military campaigns by the South Vietnamese army, causes the Viet Cong to eventually fizzle out entirely. This puts a damper on North Vietnam 🇻🇳’s plans. The Viet Cong were key to North Vietnam 🇻🇳’s strategy in defeating South Vietnam, and reunifying the country under their government. But, with a weak Viet Cong, and stronger South Vietnam with a lot more legitimacy and popular support, Hanoi’s options for defeating South Vietnam and reunifying Vietnam militarily would’ve been extremely limited.
As for the United States 🇺🇸, with a much stronger South Vietnam better able to defend itself and stave off the Viet Cong insurgency, the Americans 🇺🇸 never get directly involved in the war. Instead, they maintain an advisory role, providing training, weapons, and equipment to the South Vietnamese military.
TheAlrightyOne never addresses the Gulf of Tonkin incident in his video. But given that all the problems that were caused by the Buddhist Crisis ☸️ and the 1963 coup never happen in this alternate timeline, or are less severe, the circumstances that led to the Gulf of Tonkin incident never happen either. So, the Gulf of Tonkin incident never occurs, and without the Gulf of Tonkin incident, the US 🇺🇸 never has a convenient reason to escalate the war, and put their own troops on the ground to fight the Viet Cong and North Vietnamese 🇻🇳 themselves.
With the US 🇺🇸 staying out of the war, and maintaining the advisory role they had prior to 1966, South Vietnam’s chances for success and survival were much greater. And Thi’s relationship with the Americans 🇺🇸 would’ve likely been more positive than it was in our timeline.
The Americans 🇺🇸 hated Thi in our timeline, and the feeling was mutual. This was likely due to the fact that they supported his political rivals over him, he kept rejecting their military advice about how to respond to the Viet Cong threat, and he likely didn’t like or agree with their heavy-handed approach to dealing with this threat; as well as the bad strategy and tactics on their part, or our part since I’m an American 🇺🇸 too.
But, without all that messiness, and with him being in charge of a much more stable government, Thi’s relationship with the United States 🇺🇸 would’ve likely been much more friendly, productive, and not as hostile as it was in our timeline. They probably would’ve seen him as the guy who was going to turn things around, and stabilize the country and win the war, which he ultimately did in this alternate timeline; and you know, that’s good enough for them.
Of course, not getting directly involved in the war would’ve dramatically altered the course of American history and politics 🇺🇸. TheAlrightyOne never gets into what effects staying out of the war would’ve had on the United States 🇺🇸, but make no mistake, this would’ve had a huge effect on the country, and the direction it took politically. Just the culture of America 🇺🇸 alone would’ve been different, if only just by a little bit.
The Vietnam War 🇻🇳 protest movement 🪧 had a huge cultural and political effect on the country. The way American culture 🇺🇸 evolved since the 60s, and way American politics 🇺🇸 has played out of over the decades since then was largely because of the war, and the devastating tragedy that it was. This even included the music of the time. Without this huge American involvement 🇺🇸 in the war, the music of the time would’ve been a lot different since they wouldn’t have all been about the war in someway. There wouldn’t have been a war to write songs about, at least from the Americans’ perspective 🇺🇸.
So, with a much stronger South Vietnam, a weaker Viet Cong, and without the rallying cry of a heavy-handed US military response 🇺🇸, the North Vietnamese 🇻🇳 run out of options to defeat their enemy, and reunify the country on their terms, and they ultimately concede and sign a ceasefire agreement or armistice with the South Vietnamese. South Vietnam effectively wins the war. And the South Vietnamese’s victory over the communist forces ☭ has a knock on effect on Cambodia and Laos. The anti-communist and pro-American governments 🇺🇸 in those countries, the Khmer Republic and the Kingdom of Laos respectively, also succeed in defeating their own communist insurgencies ☭.
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They invaded South Vietnam five times during the war. One of those invasions was the 1972 Easter Offensive, and another one was in 1975, which was the final one that ultimately toppled the government in Saigon and ended the war. But, three ones before those were all in 1968, the year, the infamous Tet Offensive happened. Yes, the Tet Offensive was a North Vietnamese invasion 🇻🇳, it was joint effort between them and the Viet Cong.
“We failed to understand that the war was an invasion from North Vietnam 🇻🇳, and not an insurgency in the South.”
—Richard Nixon, 1987, No More Vietnams
So, if anyone tells you that North Vietnam 🇻🇳 was the victim during the Vietnam War 🇻🇳 is either ignorant or is lying to you. They’re arguing from bad faith because North Vietnam 🇻🇳 clearly was the aggressor during the war. With communist activities ☭ in Laos and Cambodia as well as South Vietnam, the US 🇺🇸 was forced to expand their war effort to those countries as well. Although they were already engaged in Laos, in a limited capacity before the Vietnam escalation in 1964.
In fact, they considered Laos key to preventing communism ☭’s spread in Southeast Asia, and they were right. Laos was the communists’ ☭ spearhead in wearing down the US 🇺🇸 and anti-communist states like South Vietnam, Khmer Republic, and Kingdom of Laos in a war of attrition. And they were able to do this by using Laos as a staging ground to invade South Vietnam. Without sufficiently blocking the Ho Chi Minh Trail, and placing the bulk of their ground forces into Laos, the US 🇺🇸 was unable to degrade North Vietnam 🇻🇳’s ability to invade South Vietnam, and win the war.
They began massive and devastating bombing campaigns in both countries, and even launched a counter-invasion of Cambodia (then under the control of the Khmer Republic) along with South Vietnam after Cambodia was invaded by the North Vietnamese 🇻🇳 (at the request of Pol Pot, leader of the Khmer Rouge, himself). These efforts achieved nothing, except weaken and destabilize the governments of those two countries, and give the communists ☭ a much easier victory.
The Khmer Rouge and the Pathet Lao 🇱🇦 wouldn’t have won at all if the US 🇺🇸 didn’t directly involved in the war, and expand it to Cambodia and Laos, and didn’t take such a heavy-handed approach in dealing with the enemy such as carpet bombing. Sure, the CIA’s secret war in Laos, using Hmong fighters, was a little bit more measured and surgical than the numerous bombing campaigns over Laos and Cambodia, but it still wasn’t enough, and it proved fruitless with a dysfunctional and corrupt Laotian government. The fact that US 🇺🇸 decided to keep the war in Laos a secret also contributed to the campaign’s ultimate failure.
The Americans’ 🇺🇸 dogmatic belief in the Domino Theory, and their direct involvement in the war, ultimately led to the very outcome that they were trying to avoid: the further spread of communism ☭ in Southeast Asia. So, it’s better to look at the Cambodian Civil War 🇰🇭, the Laotian Civil War 🇱🇦, and the Vietnam War 🇻🇳 as parts one large conflict rather than three separate conflicts happening at the same time.
But, with a victorious South Vietnam, the Khmer Republic and the Kingdom of Laos are more able to defeat their own communist insurgencies ☭, and win as well. A victorious and stable South Vietnam means a victorious and stable Khmer Republic and Kingdom of Laos, and TheAlrightyOne definitely explores that in his alternate history videos on the Khmer Republic and the Kingdom of Laos. In his video on Laos, he talks about how South Vietnam and the Khmer Republic form a mini coalition to help the Kingdom of Laos finally root out the Pathet Lao 🇱🇦 and the North Vietnamese 🇻🇳 for good.
So, they launch an invasion into Laos in 1976, working closely with the Royal Lao military, and they ultimately succeed in defeating the Pathet Lao 🇱🇦 and evicting the North Vietnamese 🇻🇳. Given that this invasion happens in 1976, I’m guessing that this is supposed to be an alternative to the Vietnamese invasion of the Democratic Kampuchea (Cambodia under Pol Pot and the Khmer Rouge’s rule) 🇻🇳 in 1979. Like, instead of there being an invasion of Cambodia in 1979 by the communist Vietnamese 🇻🇳, there’s an invasion of Laos by the anti-communist South Vietnamese and Cambodians in 1976. And I’m guessing that he also has the viewpoint that Laos was key to defeating the communists ☭ since he had the war end in Laos. Those videos are set in the same timeline as the South Vietnam video.
Vietnam stays divided, at least for a few more decades, and Thi remains in power up until the 1980s or 90s, I don’t remember. But, he eventually steps down, and much like South Korea 🇰🇷, Taiwan 🇹🇼, and the Philippines 🇵🇭, South Vietnam begins transitioning to democracy. South Korea 🇰🇷, Taiwan 🇹🇼, and the Philippines 🇵🇭 were all either under military dictatorships or under indefinite martial law during this period, and they didn’t start transitioning to democracy until the 80s and 90s. So, they’re all pretty young democracies relatively speaking, with Taiwan 🇹🇼 being the youngest out of all them. TheAlrightyOne envisions that South Vietnam would go down a similar path, and envisions the same for the Khmer Republic and the Kingdom of Laos.
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Much like in our own timeline, North Vietnam 🇻🇳 implemented land reforms that proved to be unpopular with the largely agrarian populace, only this time, they weren’t able to implement the economic reforms that turned things around for them in our timeline. So, like every other communist regime ☭ during the Cold War, North Vietnam 🇻🇳 was pretty authoritarian and poor, and became less and less effective as the 80s and 90s came along. North Vietnam 🇻🇳’s problems get even worse once the Soviet Union ☭ (their main benefactor) becomes weaker as well, and collapses in 1991.
Eventually, North Vietnam 🇻🇳 ends up in the hands of a reformer who is more open to dialogue with South Vietnam. The two Vietnams reopen reunification talks that Diệm put a stop to in 1955, and finally after three and a half decades, Vietnam is reunified, only this time, it’s under the Republic of Vietnam (RVN) government, the US 🇺🇸’s preferred government. So, the end of the Cold War is viewed as even more of a victory for the US 🇺🇸 in this timeline than it was even in our timeline. Saigon remains the capital of this unified Vietnam, and is never renamed Ho Chi Minh City, since it never fell to the communists ☭ in this timeline.
The newly reunified Vietnam ends up becoming one of the richest and most successful countries in Southeast Asia, and becomes a role model of sorts for the entire region. That’s sort of like what ended up happening in our timeline. Vietnam 🇻🇳 has been becoming one of the richest countries in Southeast Asia, thanks to those economic reforms I mentioned earlier, as well as large global companies moving away from China 🇨🇳, and diversifying in countries like Vietnam 🇻🇳. So far though, Singapore 🇸🇬 is still the richest and most technologically advanced country in Southeast Asia.
But, in this alternate timeline, because Vietnam had a head start when it was still South Vietnam, it was a lot richer and more influential than the Vietnam 🇻🇳 in our timeline, and is much more neck and neck with Singapore 🇸🇬. And of course, of course, the relationship between this Vietnam and the US 🇺🇸 is a lot stronger and friendly than the relationship between the current Vietnam 🇻🇳 and the US 🇺🇸 in our timeline. They come into the new millennium as true allies.
The reason why the UK 🇬🇧 and France 🇫🇷 joined is that they both still had colonies in Asia that they wanted to protect, and they were still pretty invested in what happened in Indochina. The three protected countries as I state in the main text were Cambodia, Laos, and South Vietnam, and they were referred to as “protocol states.” Cambodia 🇰🇭 was a special case because the Kingdom of Cambodia 🇰🇭 was a protocol state until 1956. It lost its status as a protocol state due to King Sihanouk’s government rejecting it.
But, after the coup against Sihanouk, and after the Khmer Republic was established, Cambodia became a SEATO protocol state once again. SEATO was created in 1954 and lasted until 1977, and it has largely been forgotten about. When it is thought about, it’s mostly seen as a failure by most historians because well, it was a failure. The reasons why it failed is that the member states couldn’t probably coordinate with one another, and they lost interest in it over time.
Besides the protocol state thing, SEATO didn’t really have a robust collective defense or retaliatory clause like NATO. SEATO really didn’t have its own Article 5, many see as the key to NATO’s success, and makes the alliance so attractive to other countries and makes them want to join. As you could imagine, this lack of a collective defense or retaliatory article like NATO’s Article 5 is really bad for the sustainability and viable of a military alliance like SEATO was supposed to be. It was supposed to be the Asian version of NATO, or the Pacific version of NATO, and it yet it failed to include the one thing that set NATO apart from other military alliances.
It was militarily weak as the member states contributed very little to it, and just did their own things, and continued on with bilateral defense agreements, which did the job well enough. The US 🇺🇸 already had a trilateral military alliance with Australia 🇦🇺 and New Zealand 🇳🇿 called ANZUS 🇺🇸🇦🇺🇳🇿, which was seen by all involved parties as being more satisfactory than SEATO ever was; though ANZUS 🇺🇸🇦🇺🇳🇿 in and of itself has sort of been rendered obsolete by a new military alliance created in 2021 by the US 🇺🇸, the UK 🇬🇧, and Australia 🇦🇺 called AUKUS 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇦🇺.
This all rendered SEATO useless. Plus, it ultimately failed in its main goal of preventing the further spread of communism ☭ in Southeast Asia. The timeline of events, and the year it finally officially dissolved correlates with the anti-communist defeats in Indochina in the mid-1970s. So, no one who was still in the alliance felt that it still had a reason to exist, and they were all okay with just letting it die. But, in a timeline in-which South Vietnam, the Khmer Republic, and the Kingdom of Laos prevailed, perhaps SEATO could have survived.
Indeed, I do think there is a version of SEATO that could have worked, and could have nowadays, especially since China 🇨🇳 is even more of a threat now than it was even back then, and security over the South China Sea has become of an issue. Maybe, SEATO was a little too ahead of its time, maybe it was a military alliance that was more suited for the 21st century, and just happened to be created in the 20th century.
But, I think if SEATO were to work, a few things would probably have to change. One is to have an actual collective defense or retaliatory article in the treaty just like NATO, and another is just don’t include Pakistan 🇵🇰. It seems like every military alliance Pakistan 🇵🇰 was apart of ended up failing because Pakistan 🇵🇰 was also in CENTO, a Middle Eastern military alliance started by the UK 🇬🇧, and that one failed too, around the same time too.
So, maybe if Pakistan 🇵🇰 wasn’t in it, SEATO would’ve had a better chance at succeeding. Maybe, swap out Pakistan 🇵🇰 with Canada 🇨🇦, I mean, Canada 🇨🇦’s a Pacific power too, just like the US 🇺🇸. Or South Korea 🇰🇷, they’d be another good alternative to Pakistan 🇵🇰, I mean, they did fight in the Vietnam War 🇻🇳 and were the second largest contingent in that war in our timeline after all. But, really, what it probably would’ve come down to is whether or not South Vietnam, the Khmer Republic, and Kingdom of Laos won the Vietnam War 🇻🇳.)
Of course, with the still existent and vibrant SEATO, the US 🇺🇸 would’ve had a much greater role in this region than it does in our timeline. It would still have an alliance structure that it can rely on to play a more dominant and constructive role than in our timeline. In our time, the US 🇺🇸 only really has bilateral defense treaties with Thailand 🇹🇭 and the Philippines 🇵🇭 and bilateral trade agreements with Vietnam 🇻🇳.
The US 🇺🇸 doesn’t really have strong ties with Cambodia 🇰🇭 or Laos 🇱🇦, not since the end of the Cambodian Civil War 🇰🇭 and the end of the Laotian Civil War 🇱🇦. Both Laos 🇱🇦 and Cambodia 🇰🇭 are more pro-China 🇨🇳 than any of their neighbors, besides maybe Thailand 🇹🇭, Thailand 🇹🇭’s pretty pro-China 🇨🇳 because of their military-controlled government, but more on that in a bit. Myanmar 🇲🇲 has close ties with China 🇨🇳, and is thoroughly pro-China 🇨🇳, but they don’t directly border Cambodia 🇰🇭 or Laos 🇱🇦; the only countries Myanmar 🇲🇲 borders directly are India 🇮🇳, Bangladesh 🇧🇩, China 🇨🇳, Thailand 🇹🇭, and Laos 🇱🇦.
Of course, Vietnam 🇻🇳 has been developing stronger ties with the US 🇺🇸 recently to counter China 🇨🇳, but it’s really more of a partnership of convenience rather than a true alliance. And relations between Thailand 🇹🇭 and the US 🇺🇸 have been getting worse ever since the country was taken over by a military junta, and since the Thai government 🇹🇭 brutally cracked down on those protests 🪧 against the monarchy and the government as a whole for their handling of the COVID-19 virus 🦠 among other things in 2020 and 2021.
Though be clear, the protesters 🪧 weren’t calling for the abolition of the monarchy. They just wanted the monarchy’s power to be limited again and to be reformed, because I guess the monarchy had grown in power and influence within Thai politics 🇹🇭, and was falling victim to military influence; so there’s a lot of corruption within the Thai government 🇹🇭, all the way up top, including the monarchy, and a lot of it has to do with the military and their dominance and control over Thai politics 🇹🇭. The protests 🪧 were pushing for change, hoping to get rid of the military-appointed senate, to have a new constitution drafted, to restrict royal prerogative and abolish lèse majesté laws, and also increase civil, economic, and political rights, including better treatment for LGBT people 🏳️🌈; there is a lot of LGBT discrimination 🏳️🌈 in Thailand 🇹🇭, despite being it perceived and stereotyped as the “land of ladyboys.”
As I said before, Thailand 🇹🇭 is also pretty pro-China 🇨🇳, because of its military dominated government, and its propensity towards authoritarian and anti-Western sentiment; the West complains about the military’s tight grip on power and strong influence over the civilian government, so the military complains about the West. It also probably helps that Thailand 🇹🇭 doesn’t border the South China Sea, and doesn’t have any claims there, which has been the source of most Southeast Asian countries’ frustrations and growing hostility towards China 🇨🇳. So, Thailand 🇹🇭 is apart of a small group of Southeast Asian countries with strong ties and friendly relations with China 🇨🇳, along with Cambodia 🇰🇭, Laos 🇱🇦, and Myanmar 🇲🇲; the jury’s kind out on Malaysia 🇲🇾 right now, but I do think it is a neutral country, with some strong leanings towards China 🇨🇳, but not fully pro-China 🇨🇳.
It’s safe to say Thailand 🇹🇭 really is no longer the US 🇺🇸’s strongest ally in the region; that honor goes to the Philippines 🇵🇭. Our alliance or partnership with the Philippines 🇵🇭 did falter a bit during the presidency of Rodrigo Duterte, but it’s back on track with Ferdinand Marcos Jr. (nicknamed “Bongbong”) at the helm, and now the Philippines 🇵🇭 is once again one of our best and most indispensable allies in the region. Especially since relations between the Philippines 🇵🇭 and the China 🇨🇳 have deteriorated over the past couple of months; they were bad before, in 2022, but they only got worse in 2023 once China 🇨🇳 started asserting its claims over the South China Sea, and certain islands and fishing grounds within the sea more aggressively than before.
I mean, the Philippines 🇵🇭 has been a US ally 🇺🇸 for far longer than Thailand 🇹🇭, but Thailand 🇹🇭 used to be right up there with the Philippines 🇵🇭 as one of our strongest allies in the region. Especially during the Vietnam War 🇻🇳, we had a lot of military bases in Thailand 🇹🇭 at the time, and American pilots 🇺🇸 took off from there for sorties into South Vietnam, North Vietnam 🇻🇳, Laos, and Cambodia, usually bombing runs; a lot of B-52 Stratofortresses took off from American air bases 🇺🇸 in Thailand 🇹🇭. But, there were a lot of dogfights during the war too between American jets 🇺🇸 (usually F-4 Phantom IIs) and North Vietnamese jets 🇻🇳 (usually MiG-17s), and a lot of those F-4s that engaged MiGs during the war took off from air bases located in Thailand 🇹🇭.
But, now that Thailand 🇹🇭 has gone down the path of authoritarianism, and has a military dictatorship just like its northwestern neighbor, Myanmar 🇲🇲, those relations are weakening, and the US 🇺🇸 and Thailand 🇹🇭 are quietly moving away from each other. But still, the US 🇺🇸 still does have military bases in Thailand 🇹🇭, and still does have a bilateral defense treaty with Thailand 🇹🇭.
So, the two countries haven’t completely decoupled, but military cooperation between the two countries has weakened in recent years, and a lot of that is driven by Thailand 🇹🇭’s domestic issues, and America 🇺🇸’s dissatisfaction with them. So now, the only dependable allies or partners in region the US 🇺🇸 has now are Vietnam 🇻🇳, Singapore 🇸🇬, the Philippines 🇵🇭, and maybe, Indonesia 🇮🇩. But it’s still unclear at this time whether Indonesia 🇮🇩 will move closer to the US 🇺🇸, or move closer to China 🇨🇳, it’s still undecided.
Fareed Zakaria of CNN referred to Indonesia 🇮🇩 as the swing voter of geopolitics, and in someways it is, if you have Indonesia 🇮🇩 on your side, then you know you’re doing good. Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦 was also considered “swing voter country” by Fareed, and another country he mentioned that I can’t remember. But, the US 🇺🇸 is definitely hoping to form a partnership with Indonesia 🇮🇩 since it is such an influential country in ASEAN and in Southeast Asia as a whole. It is both the largest archipelagic nation in the world, and the largest Muslim majority country in the world ☪️ by population; it has the largest Muslim population of any Muslim country in the world ☪️, including those in the Middle East. More than half of the Indonesian population 🇮🇩 is concentrated on the island of Java, and it is considered to be the most populous island in the world. It would be a shame if Indonesia 🇮🇩 fell to Chinese influence 🇨🇳.
But, in this alternate timeline, with a Vietnam under the RVN government and the SEATO alliance still in existence, as well the Khmer Republic and Kingdom of Laos still existing as well, the US 🇺🇸’s ties with these countries would’ve been a lot stronger and friendly, and they would be better equipped to handle any threat that comes their way, such as China 🇨🇳. With the caveat being that with the Cold War going differently (if only slightly) with a victorious South Vietnam, Khmer Republic, and Kingdom of Laos, China 🇨🇳 might not have gone down the same path that it did in our timeline, and maybe a completely different country in the present in this timeline.
Perhaps, the US 🇺🇸 and the rest of the world never decides to recognize the People’s Republic of China 🇨🇳 (PRC) as the legitimate China, and maybe they still recognize the Republic of China 🇹🇼 (ROC) in Taiwan as the legitimate China since they were emboldened and validated by the string of anti-communist victories in Southeast Asia; their pride was never hurt by a humiliating defeat like in our timeline. Why should the US 🇺🇸 concede, and open diplomatic ties with communist China 🇨🇳?
After all, the only reason the US 🇺🇸 established diplomatic relations with the PRC 🇨🇳 and decided to recognize it instead of the ROC 🇹🇼 was because Richard Nixon wanted a diplomatic win at a time when the Vietnam War 🇻🇳 was still going on and becoming more and more unpopular. And also to set himself apart from his predecessor, Lyndon Johnson, who was a firmer believer in the now infamous Domino Theory and was the main architect behind the Americanization 🇺🇸 of the war in Vietnam; even though of course, it wasn’t just a war in Vietnam, it expanded far beyond that, and spilled over into a larger regional conflict involving Laos and Cambodia as well. So, in a lot of ways, that was a purely Nixon project, that was all him.
But, in a world where the US 🇺🇸 never gets directly involved in the Vietnam War 🇻🇳 and South Vietnam wins, none of this would happen. Nixon probably wouldn’t have even become president. So, the political status between the two Chinas 🇨🇳🇹🇼 might’ve just stayed the same as it was in decades prior to the 1970s, and perhaps even till the present day. Or perhaps everyone involved would’ve worked something out to where both Chinas 🇨🇳🇹🇼 were recognized and had UN membership 🇺🇳 just like the two Koreas 🇰🇵🇰🇷 do. Who knows? But one thing’s for sure, a South Vietnamese victory would’ve probably been the best thing to happen to Taiwan 🇹🇼.
But in this alternate timeline, the anti-communist side of the Cold War (the American side 🇺🇸) would’ve had the advantage, and would’ve been a stronger diplomatic and negotiating position than the communist side ☭. So, they could more easily get what they want, without having to make compromises with the Soviets ☭ or the Chinese 🇨🇳 or any of the communist states ☭ of the Cold War like they had to do in our timeline. We wouldn’t have been the ones who lost face, it would’ve been the Soviets ☭, the Chinese 🇨🇳, the North Koreans 🇰🇵, the East Germans, and most importantly, the North Vietnamese 🇻🇳 who lost face.
Ho Chi Minh and Võ Nguyên Giáp were on the pro-Soviet side ☭, and Lê Duẩn
and Lê Đức Thọ were on the pro-Chinese side 🇨🇳. The pro-Chinese side 🇨🇳 won out, and they had used the training and tactics they learned from the GDR to purge the pro-Soviet faction ☭, in the ultimate twist of irony. I’m not sure what that meant, or how that played out in practice given that the unified Vietnam 🇻🇳 and China 🇨🇳 ended up turning on each other anyway. Ultimately, the GDR helped the DRV 🇻🇳, and later the SRV 🇻🇳, form the police state that they still have today. Despite all that, officially, the GDR was an opponent of the war, joining the USSR ☭ in the World Peace Council in criticizing the war and calling for a peaceful end to it; though obviously, they placed most of the burden of ending the war on the US 🇺🇸 and South Vietnam and their allies.
I knew that East Germany supported North Vietnam 🇻🇳, but I didn’t know all this other stuff about factionalism within the North Vietnamese government 🇻🇳, until I fact checked this stuff, and read a Reddit comment about it. It just goes to show you that the North Vietnamese 🇻🇳 were not as unified or as functional as we’re usually led to believe. We’re usually led to believe in most history lessons about the war that the North Vietnamese 🇻🇳 were all united, they were on the same same page, and just generally had their shit together, while the South Vietnamese were dysfunctional, fractured, and didn’t know what they were doing. But no, both sides had their problems. And this factionalism within the North Vietnamese government 🇻🇳 could’ve helped South Vietnam win the war in this alternate timeline as well.)
Perhaps, like I said maybe both Chinas 🇨🇳🇹🇼 are recognized, and have UN membership 🇺🇳 in this alternate timeline, which would still allow for a big, rich, and powerful China 🇨🇳 that has a massive economy to exist. Who really knows? TheAlrightyOne never delves into how any of these events would’ve affected China 🇨🇳 in any of his videos, so we the viewer have to speculate about that on our own. But, even if China 🇨🇳 is still rich and powerful, and is still a looming threat to the region in this alternate timeline, at least the US 🇺🇸 would still have a military alliance, and strong and friendly allies in the region to count on to better deal with that threat.
TheAlrightyOne’s video was one of the best South Vietnam alternate history videos, if not, the best that I’ve ever seen. Most other South Vietnam alternate history videos are just “what if the United States 🇺🇸 won the Vietnam War 🇻🇳” scenarios, but this is one of the few that is truly a “what if South Vietnam won” scenario. He set him apart from his contemporaries by taking the United States 🇺🇸 out of the equation. He went much more in-depth into South Vietnamese history than most other people do, and managed to craft a plausible scenario that could’ve actually happened had things played out differently. That’s why I had to write about it on here, and why I am going to link his South Vietnam video as well as his videos on the Khmer Republic and the Kingdom of Laos down below.
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Another possibility that I didn’t consider could happen to China 🇨🇳 in an alternate timeline in-which South Vietnam won the Vietnam War 🇻🇳 is that China 🇨🇳 could end up in civil war (again). Maybe, Deng Xiaoping never becomes the leader of China 🇨🇳 after Mao Zedong, and never implements those economic reforms that helped propel China 🇨🇳 to economic prosperity, and made it the powerful and influential country it is today. Deng helped make China 🇨🇳 into world power again in a way that it just never was under Mao.
China 🇨🇳 was regional powerhouse under Mao. Maoist China 🇨🇳 caused a lot of trouble during the 1950s and 60s, especially during the Korean War 🇰🇵🇰🇷 and the Sino-Indian War 🇨🇳🇮🇳. Mao is the reason that the Korean War 🇰🇵🇰🇷 ended in a stalemate in the first place, and why North Korea 🇰🇵 still exists today. Had he not decided to intervene, South Korea 🇰🇷 and the UN forces 🇺🇳 would’ve won, and the Korean Peninsula would be reunified under the Republic of Korea 🇰🇷 (ROK) government. And of course, we can’t forget about Tibet.
They even have their own name for Tibet, Xizang, but the government doesn’t officially refer to Tibet as Xizang. They still refer to as Tibet in official documents, and the territory is officially the Tibet Autonomous Region rather than Xizang. Though, I could imagine them officially and formally changing the name to Xizang in the future, especially once the Dalai Lama dies, and once they decide to officially and formally strip away Tibet’s autonomous status; not that it really was all that autonomous to begin with. But, despite that, Tibetan identity still exists, and Tibetans still resist, though obviously it’s not on the same level of the 1959 Uprising or the unrest that happened in Tibet in 2008 during the run-up to the 2008 Beijing Summer Olympics ☀️.
The ROC 🇹🇼, although it was an authoritarian state under Chiang Kai-shek, probably wouldn’t have taken this approach. They would’ve likely allowed Tibet to have as much autonomy as they desired, and would’ve taken steps to preserve their culture and religion, since Chiang was a religious man, and had much more respect for religion and tradition than Mao ever did. Chiang was a stickler for traditional Chinese culture, as well as the traditional cultures of other ethnic groups within China, including the Tibetans.
But, anyway, Mao is the reason why the Dalai Lama had to flee into India 🇮🇳, and why he’s still living in exile there to this day, never able to return to his homeland. And the way Mao handled Tibet and the Dalai Lama, ultimately led to the Sino-Indian War 🇨🇳🇮🇳, a war which India 🇮🇳 lost, and was forced to give up territory to China 🇨🇳. Specifically, Aksai Chin, which remains a disputed territory to this day, which India 🇮🇳 has never relinquished their claim over. I mean, why would they? China 🇨🇳 literally stole that territory from them.
So, China 🇨🇳 during the Mao era was a lot more like Iran 🇮🇷 is today in a lot of ways, where it was more of a regional power, and it benefited from chaos happening in the region, some of which it help foment. So, maybe in a world where South Vietnam wins the Vietnam War 🇻🇳, and South Vietnam and North Vietnam 🇻🇳 remain divided, and the US 🇺🇸 never decides to establish diplomatic ties, maybe China 🇨🇳 never goes through the transformation that it did in our timeline. Maybe, instead of being taken over by a reformer, it’s taken over by a Mao loyalist who decides to keep many of the same policies, and keep China 🇨🇳 down the same path.
And given how disastrous many of Mao’s policies were, this could’ve led to China 🇨🇳 becoming even weaker and more destabilized to the point of breaking out into civil war (again). This could’ve made that regions of China 🇨🇳 that were taken by force, or had nationalistic sentiments and wanted to break away could’ve used this as their opportunity. Places like Tibet, Xinjiang (East Turkistan), Inner Mongolia, and maybe even Manchuria could’ve broken away from China 🇨🇳 and become independent states. And of course, this could’ve led to the collapse of the PRC 🇨🇳, and led to a new government taking control.
The Inner Mongolian People’s Party, or IMPP is a pro-independence party, it’s a secessionist party that was created in 1997, and it advocates for Inner Mongolia to break away from China 🇨🇳 and become in its own independent state. Some party members are pan-Mongolian 🇲🇳 and do wish to unite Inner Mongolia with Mongolia 🇲🇳 to create a Greater Mongolia 🇲🇳. But, most party members see Mongolian unification 🇲🇳 as beyond the scope of their party’s goals. The reasons that the IMPP have cited for wanting to secede from China 🇨🇳 are the abuses towards Mongolians by the Chinese government 🇨🇳, particularly during the Cultural Revolution. Not much of a shocker there.)
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The US 🇺🇸 and the West would probably have misplaced optimism about the new China at first in the immediate aftermath of the Cold War, just like they had with the Russian Federation 🇷🇺. But, like with the Russian Federation 🇷🇺, the US 🇺🇸 and the West as a whole would eventually realize that this new China is no friend, and is still a hostile adversary that needs to be contained and countered. This would especially be the case if this new nationalistic China launches wars of aggression to retake territory, or to reestablish Chinese influence.
Given the circumstances, Taiwan 🇹🇼 probably would not choose to reunify with this new China, despite it not being a communist government ☭, and adopting the old Nationalist flag. Mostly because they would be dealing with a relatively weak China that’s just barely getting back on its feet after the collapse of communism ☭, and wouldn’t want to hobble their own economic strength and stability to reunifying with this weak China. Their hesitance to join this new China would increase as this new China becomes hostile and aggressive, and continues threaten them militarily. So, Taiwan 🇹🇼 would likely opt to maintain status quo or go for independence, unless the government in China somehow changed again to something more positive and aggressive.
These are just a couple more scenarios to consider when contemplating what would’ve happened to China had South Vietnam been victorious in the Vietnam War 🇻🇳. It’s hard to predict, and it could’ve gone quite a few different ways. TheAlrightyOne never discusses it in any of his videos on the conflict, and just keeps those videos mostly focused on the subjects of those videos, South Vietnam, the Khmer Republic, and the Kingdom of Laos respectively. So, it’s up to us to speculate how the victory of these anti-communist states in the Second Indochina War would’ve affected the wider world, including China 🇨🇳.
Alternate history scenarios tend to be a bit overly optimistic, especially ones like this, and I think it’s good to think about some possible negative effects something like this would have on the world because not everything would be hunky dory in the world just because things happen more of the way we wanted them to in one historical event or historical conflict. I’m not saying TheAlrightyOne is necessarily guilty of this, being overly optimistic in his alternate history scenarios.
There was a little bit of that in his alternate history video on the ROC 🇹🇼, but I would say that he does a little bit of a better job of balancing the good and bad elements in his alternate history videos on South Vietnam, the Khmer Republic, and the Kingdom of Laos; not being too optimistic in crafting his scenarios, but also not being too pessimistic in his scenarios either.
Speaking of his video on the ROC 🇹🇼, that’s another great video of his that you should check out, I’ll link it down below. Much like his videos on South Vietnam, the Khmer Republic, and the Kingdom of Laos, he takes his ROC scenario 🇹🇼 in much different directions than most other alternate history videos that explore what would’ve happened if the Kuomintang (KMT) won the Chinese Civil War 🇨🇳🇹🇼. He delivers a fresh and unique take on an alternate history scenario that’s been done many times, especially on YouTube.
But, like I said, his video on the ROC 🇹🇼 is a bit too optimistic and fanciful, but that doesn’t really bother me. I still enjoy it, and I see his scenario as the most “ideal” scenario for China and the world, rather than being the most “realistic” scenario. Though, that’s not to say his scenario isn’t plausible, it is, but it isn’t the most plausible and is a bit more on the optimistic side.
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Or maybe, like I wrote in this update, the PRC 🇨🇳 faces a total collapse either through civil war or through peaceful means due to stagnation and inability to reform, and is replaced a much more right-wing, nationalist revanchist government similar to the Russian Federation 🇷🇺 under Vladimir Putin. The possible names of this new right-wing nationalist China could possibly be the Chinese Federal Republic, or CFR, or the Federal Republic of China, or FRC, or the State of China, SOC, or the Nation of China, NOC, or the United Provinces of China, UPC, maybe even just China, no crazy official name.
Oh, and in case you’re wondering what Inner Mongolia would be called if it successfully broke away from China after the fall of the PRC 🇨🇳, it would probably be called South Mongolia. But, the other Mongolia 🇲🇳 would still probably just be called Mongolia 🇲🇳 even with Inner Mongolian independence, and the formation of South Mongolia. Just like how Sudan 🇸🇩 is still just called Sudan 🇸🇩 even though there’s a South Sudan 🇸🇸; South Sudan 🇸🇸 broke away from Sudan 🇸🇩 in an independence referendum supported by the US 🇺🇸 and the rest of the international community in 2011, and South Sudan 🇸🇸 is still considered to be the youngest or newest country in the world with full international recognition and UN membership 🇺🇳.
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That’s how we ultimately got the Germany 🇩🇪 we have today, but obviously not before it was divided West to East, with the democratic and capitalist West Germany 🇩🇪, and the communist East Germany ☭, which was a Soviet client state ☭ but also a powerhouse in the communist world ☭ in its own right; I mean, their secret police and intelligence service, the Stasi was more oppressive and deadly than even the KGB. But, the current unified Germany 🇩🇪 is both democratic and capitalist, and bares no resemblance to Nazi Germany or East Germany. To balance out the Nazi flag, I included the current flag of Germany 🇩🇪 below to contrast the two, to show how different Germany was back then, and how it is now. The German Reich had to be destroyed to allow the Federal Republic of Germany 🇩🇪, or FRG for short, to exist.)
So, the Battle of the Parcel Islands was a battle between China 🇨🇳 and South Vietnam. Obviously, China 🇨🇳 won that battle, and gained control over the islands, for a variety of reasons. South Vietnam was weak, corrupt, and unstable. This battle happened in 1974, one year before the Fall of Saigon, so that was especially the case by then. South Vietnam really was on its last legs, and was fighting its existence and losing. Frankly, they were too focused on fighting the Viet Cong and the North Vietnamese 🇻🇳 on the ground to really put up a proper defense over the Parcel Islands.
They didn’t have the Americans 🇺🇸 to rely on at that point since the US 🇺🇸 had withdrawn the majority of its forces from South Vietnam. They didn’t withdraw all of their forces, there was still left in the country in 1975, but it was shell of what was there before in years prior, it was a skeleton crew essentially. So, South Vietnam was on its own, and it simply wasn’t strong to resist the Chinese attack on the Parcel Islands 🇨🇳, especially at that point during the war. So, China 🇨🇳 was really just being an opportunist, and taking advantage of the situation, and snatching up some island territory that was just easy pickings from their point-of-view.
But, in this alternate timeline, with a much stronger and more stable South Vietnam, a much weak Viet Cong, and a North Vietnam 🇻🇳 less able to affect change on the ground militarily, South Vietnam is able to defeat China 🇨🇳, and maintain control over the islands. Or perhaps, the battle wouldn’t have taken place at all. Either way, South Vietnam maintains sovereignty over the Parcel Islands, and the unified Vietnam under the RVN government still maintains that sovereignty, but China 🇨🇳 still maintains a claim over those islands. It’s essentially a reversal of the situation in our world, in our timeline.
This becomes more consequential in the early-to-mid 21st century when the South China Sea dispute ramps up, and China 🇨🇳 becomes more gung ho about the 9-dash line over the South China Sea, and starts asserting its claims over the sea and the islands within more assertively and aggressively. But, Vietnam still holds strong, and reaffirms its sovereignty over the islands, and its own territorial waters within the South China Sea. In this timeline, they also have SEATO to back them up, and deter China 🇨🇳 from acting too aggressively.
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Update (Monday November 6, 2023):
🇨🇳
Remember what I said about how the West would have misplaced optimism about a potential post-communist China like they did the Russian Federation 🇷🇺 after the fall of the Soviet Union ☭? Well, while I do still stand by that, I do think it should be said that the West already did have misplaced optimism about China in our timeline. After the PRC 🇨🇳 implemented those economic reforms under Deng and the leaders after him, and the country became richer and more integrated into the world economy and international institutions like the World Trade Organization (WTO), and the West was fairly optimistic about China 🇨🇳, and the direction it was going in.
There were hiccups to be sure, like the Tiananmen Square massacre or the situation in Tibet. But for the most part, the West had a pretty favorable view of China 🇨🇳. The Chinese 🇨🇳 still had significant amounts of soft power, soft power which they no longer have today, but had in spades during the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s. In fact, China 🇨🇳’s soft power during those decades was almost on par with Japan 🇯🇵’s. Obviously, they didn’t overtake Japan 🇯🇵 in terms of soft power, Japan 🇯🇵 still had way more soft power and there was no way they could actually beat them. But, China 🇨🇳 got pretty close, as close as they were ever going to get.
A lot of this soft power was gained from the Chinese government 🇨🇳’s active promotion of Chinese culture and history around the world, particularly in the West, in the 1990s and 2000s. They wanted to portray themselves as the arbiters of Chinese culture and Chinese history—despite them being the perpetrators of the Cultural Revolution under Mao—and they wanted the world to see them as the legitimate and rightful rulers of China, and it worked (for the most part). People were accepting them, and they wanted to do business with them. They paid attention to the positive things about China 🇨🇳, and the Chinese people 🇨🇳, and either ignored or forgot about the negative things.
As for Western leaders, a lot of them had this fantasy in their heads that just because China 🇨🇳 had opened up somewhat, and adopted some elements of capitalism and a market economy, that it would eventually transition to democracy and become a much freer and open society. President Bill Clinton even said that the reason why he supported China 🇨🇳 joining the WTO is that he believed that if it did, it would start respecting human rights within its own borders. This was still a period in time in-which the West believed that capitalism and market reforms automatically led to democracy and the rule of law. They held this belief about Russia 🇷🇺, and many of the former Eastern Bloc countries.
Of course, nowadays we can see that belief was false and naïve, and that capitalism doesn’t automatically lead to democracy. A country can be capitalist or capitalist leaning, while also being undemocratic. Frankly, the West should’ve already learned that during the Cold War, since a lot of the anti-communist and pro-capitalist states during that time were authoritarian, including quite a few of the ones that the United States 🇺🇸 supported. But, back then, in the 90s and early-to-mid 2000s, that was still the dominant belief in the West, especially in the United States 🇺🇸, the apparent victor of the Cold War.
And to be perfectly fair to Western leaders, there wasn’t any particular reason to suspect that China 🇨🇳 would’ve gone down this very hostile, revisionist, revanchist, and resentful direction that it has. Chinese leaders 🇨🇳 up until Xi Jinping kept saying that they wanted to be apart of the current global order, the “rules-based order” that the US 🇺🇸 helped create, and they wanted to play an important and productive role in the global economy.
They also said that they did not wish to export their system of governance or their style of economics to the rest of the world, and were content with other countries having their own systems of governance and style of economics, including democratic and capitalist ones. That message was very appealing, and many world leaders and governments bought into it, not just in the West, but in Asia and Africa as well. But, once Xi took power, that all changed.
Not only did China 🇨🇳 become aggressively anti-Western in its actions and rhetoric, but it also expressed a more revisionist stance. All of a sudden, China 🇨🇳 wanted to reshape the global order, and kick the United States 🇺🇸 off of its pedestal, and become the dominant superpower in the world. They also wanted other countries to follow their model, and not the American model 🇺🇸 or any other model really. They also want the rest of the world to recognize their version of reality such as Taiwan 🇹🇼 being apart of China 🇨🇳, being a province of China 🇨🇳, Tibet being apart of China 🇨🇳, and the Dalai Lama being a dangerous subversive criminal. It’s either China 🇨🇳’s way or the highway.
Xi also wanted to roll back the Chinese economy 🇨🇳, and kind of close it back up again, because he felt that they had opened it up too much, and they needed to reassert the Communist Party ☭’s total dominance, and stamp out anyone who could be a threat to Party control and dominance, including those in the “private sector.” So, essentially, China 🇨🇳 is becoming more totalitarian under Xi, as he adopts a more autocratic style and develops a cult-of-personality with himself at the center. This in contrast to the way it was before under the reformers, where it was more of a collective leadership, where you had different voices, different groups, and factions within the party keeping each other in check. It was still authoritarian, there was nothing democratic about this system at all, but it was closer to being an oligarchy rather than an autocracy like it is now under Xi.
So, now the West has fully woken up to the fact that China 🇨🇳 is never going to become a democracy so long as the Communist Party ☭ remains in power, that we shouldn’t have been overly optimistic about China 🇨🇳 just because it adopted market reforms, and that it probably wasn’t even really a friend to begin with, even before Xi came along. All the problems that China 🇨🇳 has, all the bad stuff they do internally and even externally were always there, but we just chose to ignore it because we were all benefiting from China 🇨🇳’s economic growth, and we didn’t want to stop that metaphorical oil well 🛢️ from gushing 🤑. We were receiving all those cheap manufactured consumer goods from them, and many of our top businessmen and women ♂︎♀︎ were investing there like crazy. But, now, we’re in a position where we can’t ignore China 🇨🇳’s problems anymore, we can’t ignore the bad stuff they do, and just turn and look the other way while getting rich off of them 🤑.
But, all this would’ve been even more exasperated in a world in-which the PRC 🇨🇳 had collapsed at the end of the Cold War just like the USSR ☭ did, and was replaced with a new government that was more capitalistic. The US 🇺🇸 would’ve had even more misplaced optimism about this new China, than they even did about the PRC 🇨🇳, because it would be a new government, with completely new leadership. The state apparatus that the PRC 🇨🇳 wouldn’t have been in-place, and the country was essentially starting from square one just like Russia 🇷🇺.
The probably would’ve had this belief that they could help build up China, and help pit get back on its feet, and foster its democracy, by injecting money 💵 in it through the IMF (International Monetary Fund) and other means. And just like Russia 🇷🇺, this could’ve created a situation, where a small group of people manage to steal state assets, and hollow out the economy to the point where they’re all super wealthy, but the rest of the country is extremely poor and chaotic.
And of course, with that level of corruption, lawlessness, and poverty, a revanchist and nationalistic dictatorship could easily rise to power through a wave of populism, and take the country in a very negative direction. All the nationalism and revanchism that China 🇨🇳 has in our timeline, but unfiltered and unbridled by a Marxist-Leninist style bureaucracy; just Chinese nationalism and revanchism in its purest and most frightening form. Essentially, unintentionally creating future enemies by helping your current allies, or people who you think are your allies, but actually aren’t. We thought Boris Yeltsin was our friend, we thought Vladimir Putin was our friend, and we thought Dmitry Medvedev was our friend, and look how that turned out.
To bring this back to Vietnam 🇻🇳, I feel like we shouldn’t make the same mistake with Vietnam 🇻🇳 that we did with China 🇨🇳. Sure, Vietnam 🇻🇳 is partnering up with us right now, and many global companies are shifting their manufacturing over there, including Apple (my AirPods were made in Vietnam 🇻🇳), and many investors are investing there. But, we shouldn’t lose sight of the fact that Vietnam 🇻🇳 is an authoritarian state. There’s nothing democratic about it at all, and there are no elections there whatsoever. The Vietnamese people 🇻🇳 have no more say in choosing their leaders than the Chinese people 🇨🇳 do.
I mean, Vietnam 🇻🇳 and China 🇨🇳 hate each other right now, but these two countries have a lot more in common than either of them would probably like to admit, at least publicly. They essentially have the same style of governance, a Marxist-Leninist one-party state, and the same style of economy, a market economy with a lot of state control; there is no such thing as a private company in Vietnam 🇻🇳 anymore than there is in China 🇨🇳; neither of these two countries have a true private sector in the way that we in America 🇺🇸 would think of one. And the Vietnamese government 🇻🇳 (the SRV) likes to portray itself as the ultimate arbiter of Vietnamese culture and Vietnamese history, despite it being it a highly sanitized and mythologized version of Vietnamese history, just like the Chinese government 🇨🇳 (the PRC) does, but with the Chinese culture and history as I said.
In fact, they have so much in common, that China 🇨🇳 often names that as a reason for why Vietnam 🇻🇳 should be more allied with them, and be more compliant and subservient to them. And up until recently, Vietnam 🇻🇳 and China 🇨🇳 were on fairly good terms with one another, and I do think they did have bilateral trade agreements with each other. Though Vietnam 🇻🇳 did not officially sign onto the Belt & Road Initiative, and has remained undecided about it; I mean, they’ve probably made a decision about it now, after relations between the two countries have deteriorated, but until 2023, they were undecided about it.
It wasn’t until China 🇨🇳 started becoming more aggressive, and started asserting their claims over the South China Sea in ways they hadn’t before, that Vietnam 🇻🇳 really started turning on China 🇨🇳 and moving towards the US 🇺🇸. And while that is good for us right now in the competition with China 🇨🇳, we shouldn’t get too optimistic about this partnership, that we’ll somehow become close friends or allies, or that Vietnam 🇻🇳 will somehow transition to democracy on its own. No, that’s not the case.
We should be a bit more realistic about this relationship this time around, learning our lessons from the last time with China 🇨🇳, and move forward accordingly. This is a partnership out of convenience or a partnership out of desperation, and that’s the way we need to view it and approach it. Both us and the Vietnamese 🇻🇳 have very few options, and very few good options, and so we’re teaming up because that’s the best that both of us could do. It’s not ideal, but that’s all we have right now.
And of course, Vietnam 🇻🇳 could easily go down a similar path as China 🇨🇳, and be taken over by a more autocratic and cult-like figure who is more hostile to the US 🇺🇸 and to US interests 🇺🇸. What do you do then? This is why I sort of have mixed feelings about the US 🇺🇸 giving Vietnam 🇻🇳 F-16s. Decisions like that could easily bite us in the ass later on down the line. At least, they didn’t give them F-35s. We need to be careful, and not get our hopes up too high, or expect too much out of Vietnam 🇻🇳 or our partnership with them.
That’s also why so many people like to fantasize, and speculate about what could’ve been, in alternate history scenarios about the Vietnam War 🇻🇳. Had South Vietnam won the war, and had they been the ones to reunify Vietnam under their government, the RVN, instead of North Vietnam 🇻🇳, the DRV, then all of these issues that I’ve laid about an American and Vietnamese partnership 🇺🇸🇻🇳 wouldn’t have existed. They would’ve already been our allies from the beginning, and they would’ve likely had a political and economic system more akin to ours, and our other allies in the region like the Philippines 🇵🇭, or South Korea 🇰🇷, or Japan 🇯🇵.
Of course, there’s no guarantee that the RVN would’ve become democratic, but the chances of it becoming democratic were greater than they were with North Vietnam 🇻🇳, or are with the current Vietnam 🇻🇳, the Vietnam we’re stuck with. People do the same thing with the ROC 🇹🇼, and fantasizing or speculating about China would’ve been like or could’ve been like, and what the world would’ve been and could’ve been like had the KMT won the civil war, stayed on the mainland, and never had to flee to Taiwan.
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Update (Sunday November 26, 2023):
🇺🇸🇻🇳
I also expanded the section talking about how the Vietnam War 🇻🇳 was not just a civil war between the South Vietnamese government and the Viet Cong, or was a war between South Vietnam and North Vietnam 🇻🇳, but was a large war that encompassed the entire Indochina region. Laos was just as key to the North Vietnamese 🇻🇳 winning as the Viet Cong was. In fact, it was more important because it provided the perfect sanctuary and staging ground to invade South Vietnam repeatedly on multiple occasions. They invaded the country five times, three times in 1968, one time in 1972, and one final time in 1975. It tightened the noose around Saigon, and prevented it from resisting Hanoi’s advances effectively.
In fact, it was because of the Ho Chi Minh Trail from Laos that the North Vietnamese 🇻🇳 were able to strengthen the Viet Cong, and make them an actual formidable fighting force capable to attacking the ARVN (the South Vietnamese military) and the US forces 🇺🇸. Without the North Vietnamese 🇻🇳 being able to infiltrate and invade South Vietnam, the Viet Cong would’ve remained a weak force, unable to resist the South Vietnamese military and affect the sort of change that the leadership in Hanoi wanted.
“Cut the Ho Chi Minh Trail inside Laos. If [Lyndon] Johnson had granted [General William] Westmoreland’s requests to enter Laos and block the Ho Chi Minh Trail, Hanoi could not have won the war.”
—Bùi Tín, 1995, From Enemy to Friend: A North Vietnamese Perspective on the War 🇻🇳
I learned about this and gained a new perspective on this by watching two videos by a history YouTuber named Dr. Paul T. Carter. He made a 52 minute long video talking about the Vietnam War 🇻🇳 and why the US 🇺🇸 lost it, and how it could have won. Then, he made another video about the war in Laos specifically that was over an hour long. In both of these videos, he expressed how important Laos really was to the war effort on both sides, and how whoever controlled Laos was able to win the war.
In our timeline, it was the North Vietnamese 🇻🇳 that won because they were able to maintain the strategic advantage throughout the war, and waged a successful war of attrition thanks to the Ho Chi Minh Trail in Laos. All the while, the North Vietnamese government 🇻🇳 successfully blurred the lines of the war, and made their invasion look like an insurgency. Several American leaders 🇺🇸 knew this at the time that the war was going on, and realized it after the war was lost. That’s why I included that quote from Richard Nixon from a book 📖 he wrote a decade after he resigned from office.
In his video on Vietnam, Dr. Carter discusses the plans and strategies that were drafted by the US 🇺🇸’s top generals at the time, including General Westmoreland, to cut the trail, and prevent North Vietnam 🇻🇳 from invading South Vietnam, and makes the case for why the US 🇺🇸 should gone into Laos, and focused all of its forces there to defeat North Vietnam 🇻🇳 and save South Vietnam. This was so compelling and so persuasive, and it makes me kind of angry and frustrated that our political leadership at the time didn’t allow this strategy to be implemented. The Vietnam War 🇻🇳 truly was a war in-which our political leadership pretty much made all the wrong choices. Basically, this is another way that the war could have been won.
I mentioned how TheAlrightyOne shared the view point that Laos was important and was key to winning the war since he had the war end in Laos in his alternate timeline. But, unlike, Dr. Carter, he doesn’t hold the view that the war could’ve been won and should have been won with US involvement 🇺🇸, or more specifically, direct US involvement 🇺🇸. I mean, his entire alternate history scenario is predicated on the idea that the US 🇺🇸 does get involved, and that South Vietnam would’ve been better off without it. I assume he thinks this because he still sort of operates under the popular belief that the war in Vietnam was primarily an insurgency, rather than what it actually was, which was an invasion.
But, after watching Dr. Carter’s videos, I’m not entirely convinced that South Vietnam could have won this war entirely, or mostly on its own, and that the war was unwinnable once the United States 🇺🇸 and its closest allies like Australia 🇦🇺, New Zealand 🇳🇿, South Korea 🇰🇷, the Philippines 🇵🇭, and Thailand 🇹🇭 got involved. The war still could have been won even after the US 🇺🇸 got directly involved, was likely the only realistic way that it could have been won, had they taken a completely approach to the conflict than they did.
Instead of taking a counterinsurgency approach, they should have taken a more conventional approach, concentrating the bulk of their military forces in Laos, the decisive terrain, cutting off the trail, and creating and holding a defensive line that the North Vietnamese 🇻🇳 couldn’t penetrate. It would have played more in the US 🇺🇸’s strengths, and would’ve allowed South Vietnam to flourish and develop more in the way that we wanted it to develop. As one comment on the video said, let South Vietnam fight the Viet Cong insurgency, and let the US 🇺🇸, Australia 🇦🇺, New Zealand 🇳🇿, South Korea 🇰🇷, and Thailand 🇹🇭 fight North Vietnam 🇻🇳.
The Viet Cong would have been a lot weaker without the North Vietnamese 🇻🇳 coming in to supply them and train them, and make a real fighting force, and thus, would have been a lot easier for Saigon to deal with. And without the trail, and facing a strong American defense 🇺🇸, North Vietnam 🇻🇳 would have been played in a difficult situation where they run out of military options of unifying Vietnam, and would have been forced to capitulate, and sign a peace agreement with the US 🇺🇸 and South Vietnam. And both the US 🇺🇸 and South Vietnam would have been in a much strong negotiating position, and so, they would get what they want and win the war on their terms.
I think if I ever decide to come up with my own Vietnam War 🇻🇳 alternate history scenario, that I’ll mostly base it around Dr. Carter’s idea, and the El Paso Plan drafted by Westmoreland and other plans to cut the Ho Chi Minh Trail since that to me is a little bit more plausible than TheAlrightyOne’s scenario, even though I still like his scenario, and the entire alternate timeline he crafted in those three videos.
That means, the Gulf of Tonkin Incident still happens, the US 🇺🇸 still gets directly involved, but they take a completely different approach, and employ a completely different strategy than the one they did in our timeline, and they focus all of their main efforts in Laos, where the enemy is actually invading South Vietnam from. Maybe, I’ll still have the 1960 coup attempt succeed, and Nguyễn Chánh Thi become the leader of South Vietnam, just as a little nod to TheAlrightyOne. Maybe, I’ll even throw in John F. Kennedy surviving too, just for good measure.
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Link to the YouTuber, Dr. Paul T. Carter’s video on the Vietnam War 🇻🇳:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZ6bNBEeJHk
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Link to Dr. Paul T. Carter’s video about the CIA’s Secret War in Laos:
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