Taiwan 🇹🇼's Confusing Legal Status
Note:
This was originally written on Saturday August 26, 2023. This is third entry in my series on China 🇨🇳 and East Asia. The last one that I posted was about China 🇨🇳's struggling economy. You can click here to read it. It isn't required reading to understand this post, but it is an interesting topic because a big part of China 🇨🇳's power, influence, and status in the world comes from its economy. And if it's economy is struggling, then it loses some of that prestige, it loses a degree of its power and influence throughout the world. Their economy is still struggling, and still hasn't made the full recovery that some people have predicted that it would. Some people have taken this to mean that China 🇨🇳 has "peaked," while others haven't.
I recently saw a video put out by CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies), a think tank that specializes in geopolitics and tries to influence American policy 🇺🇸 on foreign policy. That's generally what a think tank is for, to influence policy and make recommendations to the current administration in office and to Congress. They had a China expert 🇨🇳 on, and she said that she isn't convinced that China 🇨🇳 has "peaked" yet, and China 🇨🇳 can rev back and become an economic powerhouse yet again if they so choose. I'm not entirely sure if I agree with her on that one, but you can go watch the video if you want. But, you get the idea. Whether or not China 🇨🇳 has peaked or not in terms of economic growth is still up for debate, and scholars, pundits, and experts are not in agreement on that topic.
But, this isn't actually about China 🇨🇳, or should I say, West Taiwan 🇹🇼 😉? You'll get that joke if you've been in pro-Taiwanese and anti-Chinese circles 🇹🇼🇨🇳. This is about Taiwan 🇹🇼, the first post that I'm posting on here that is completely dedicated to Taiwan 🇹🇼, a country that I've never been to, but still love. I mean, we can love countries that we've never been to. Like, I'm sure most Americans 🇺🇸 have never been to Japan 🇯🇵, and yet they still love Japan 🇯🇵 and all that it has, and all that it has to offer. For me, it's the same with Taiwan 🇹🇼. I love Taiwan 🇹🇼 and all that it has, and all that has to offer, beyond just its semiconductors and microchips. It's a beautiful country, and I wouldn't mind visiting there at least once in my lifetime.
Speaking of countries though, that's the topic of this post: Taiwan 🇹🇼's confusing legal status. Even Taiwan 🇹🇼 is functionally an independent sovereign country with its own government, constitution, parliament, military, currency, etc., it isn't recognized as such by the vast majority of the international community. Only 12 countries in the world recognize Taiwan 🇹🇼 as an independent country, and most of them are developing or underdeveloped nations in what the geopolitical and foreign policy community call the "Global South."
It used to be 13, until Nauru 🇳🇷 dropped its support for Taiwan 🇹🇼 and recognized China 🇨🇳 instead following Lai Ching-te's victory in the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election 🇹🇼🗳️. Most of the countries that do still recognize Taiwan 🇹🇼 are in the Pacific, like they're Pacific Island nations, in South America, Central America, and the Caribbean. One of them just happens to be Haiti 🇭🇹, which as many no doubt know by now, is in complete turmoil right now. I don't really think Taiwan 🇹🇼 benefits that much from being recognized by Haiti 🇭🇹, a country that effectively has no actual government, and is ruled by criminal gangs.
The only ones that aren't are Eswatini 🇸🇿 (formally known as Swaziland 🇸🇿), a small landlocked African country that borders South Africa 🇿🇦 and Mozambique 🇲🇿. It is the only African country that recognizes Taiwan 🇹🇼, as every other one recognizes China 🇨🇳 instead. And the Vatican 🇻🇦, or rather, the Holy See 🇻🇦, the only European country that recognizes Taiwan 🇹🇼, and the Vatican 🇻🇦 is barely a country. It's a city-state, smaller than even Monaco 🇲🇨, and when most people talk about Vatican City 🇻🇦, they don't really talk about it as if it's a country even though it technically is. It's a UN observer state 🇺🇳.
Yes, to this day, even after these years, the Vatican 🇻🇦 still does not recognize the People's Republic of China 🇨🇳 (PRC) as the legitimate government of China, and instead recognizes the Republic of China 🇹🇼 (ROC) in Taiwan as the legitimate government of China. Even though of course, the ROC government 🇹🇼 doesn't control Mainland China, and instead only controls the island of Taiwan, and some of the smaller surrounding islands such as Kinmen.
The ROC 🇹🇼 did at one point control the mainland, until the Kuomintang (KMT) lost the Chinese Civil War 🇨🇳🇹🇼 to the communists ☭, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) ☭, forcing the KMT to move the ROC government 🇹🇼 to the island of Taiwan indefinitely, where it has remained for the past 75 years. The leader of KMT and ROC 🇹🇼 at the time, Chiang Kai-shek did have ambitions to retaking the mainland through military force, but those ambitions never came to fruition. Instead, the ROC 🇹🇼 remained on the island, while the rest of the world moved past them in kind of weird way. Since 1971, the world has recognized the PRC 🇨🇳 as the legitimate government of China, meaning that the ROC 🇹🇼 lost its seat in the UN 🇺🇳 since the world up until that point still recognized it as the legitimate government of China, despite it being a rump state confined to a few islands in and around the Taiwan Strait since 1949.
But, they were willing to do that since Chiang Kai-shek kept promising the world that one day, he would retake the mainland from Mao Zedong and the CCP ☭, which he never ended up doing. I guess by 1971, everyone started to realize that Chiang was just a little bit delusional and his revanchist dream of reclaiming the mainland for himself would never come true, which is partially why they signed onto recognizing the PRC 🇨🇳 as China instead.
Of course, recognizing the PRC 🇨🇳 as China was all part of the United States 🇺🇸 (US/USA)'s diplomatic efforts to break up China 🇨🇳 and the Soviet Union ☭ (USSR), and prevent them from uniting and working together more cohesively, taking full advantage of the tensions that had begun to brew between the two countries after Nikita Khrushchev took power in the USSR ☭. These tensions would ultimately lead to what is known in history as the “Sino-Soviet Split ☭,” which the US 🇺🇸 contributed to and exasperated for their own ends. To gain an advantage in the Cold War. Basically, they did it to prevent the kind of alliance between China 🇨🇳 and the USSR ☭ that we see now between China 🇨🇳 and Russia 🇷🇺 (RF). They also partially did it for domestic reasons.
The American public 🇺🇸 was still upset about the Vietnam War 🇻🇳, and the Nixon administration wanted to score a foreign policy win to alleviate some of that outrage. Making "peace" with China 🇨🇳 and recognizing it as a legitimate country seemed like the perfect option. China 🇨🇳 was and is a communist nation ☭ just like North Vietnam 🇻🇳 (DRV) was, and China 🇨🇳 was supporting North Vietnam 🇻🇳 during the war, so that should appease the hippies and peaceniks, right?
In retrospect, recognizing the PRC 🇨🇳 as China, and adopting a One China Policy was perhaps one of the big mistakes of American history 🇺🇸. It was a mistake made by an administration that had made several over the course of its time in office. It had devastating consequences for the world and on Taiwan 🇹🇼 that we're still dealing with to this day. The current tensions between China 🇨🇳 and Taiwan 🇹🇼 can be traced all the way back to President Nixon's decision to normalize relations with the PRC 🇨🇳, and the UN 🇺🇳's recognize it as the legitimate government of China instead of the ROC 🇹🇼.
But, perhaps the real original sin as far as Sino-American relations 🇺🇸🇹🇼 are concerned was not helping the ROC 🇹🇼 and the KMT in their time of need. President Truman refused to support the KMT in their fight against the CCP ☭ when the civil war resumed, and as a result of the US 🇺🇸 refusing to get involved and support their ally, they lost, and the communists ☭ took over the mainland. Had Truman provided lethal aid and other assistance to the KMT, perhaps things could've turned out differently.
I go into a lot more detail about this time in my other post about Taiwan 🇹🇼 that I wrote after this one that you're about to read. So, I'll stop with the history lesson for now. The point is that the UN 🇺🇳 stop recognizing Taiwan 🇹🇼 as a country, and gave its seat to China 🇨🇳 since Taiwan 🇹🇼 had previous occupied the China seat. All because of the stupid One China Policy. The idea that there can only one China, and only one government can hold the title as "China," and be recognized as the legal representative of China in international organizations such as the UN 🇺🇳. Now, this idea did come from Chiang Kai-shek himself. So did the idea of the 9-dash line, only his was a 12-dash line, meaning that he claimed more of the South China Sea than the PRC 🇨🇳 currently does. But, that’s a whole other issue. He really pushed this idea of a One China, because he didn't see his relocation to Taiwan as permanent, and he didn't see his control over Taiwan as him being in control of a separate country from China.
He still saw Taiwan as a part of China, and he genuinely believed that could retake the mainland from the communists ☭ by using his own military forces, as well as stoke a rebellion in the southern region of China close to where Taiwan is, like in Fujian province, and have that rebellion spread from there until it reached Beijing to overthrow the CCP ☭, and I don't know, imprison them or execute them. Then, he and the ROC government 🇹🇼 would be able to retake control of the entire country. He genuinely believed that was possible, and that he could do it. He saw his relocation of Taiwan as just him strategically moving capitals, like a strategic retreat like during the Second Sino-Japanese War 🇹🇼🇯🇵. He moved capitals multiple times during the war against Japan 🇯🇵.
He thought the same would apply to the situation he found himself in within the civil war against the CCP ☭. So, he still wanted his government to be recognized as China by the rest of the world, and he wanted to promote the idea that there was only one China, and his ROC government 🇹🇼 was it. The modern KMT still holds on this idea of there only being one China, and Taiwan being apart of it, and the ROC government 🇹🇼 being that one China. Even though they're much more willing to negotiate with the communists ☭ and placate to them than Chiang ever was. Makes you wonder what he would think of what his party became in the decades after his death.
Mao and the CCP ☭ embraced this idea, and creating their own version of a One China Policy. In fact, theirs is called the One China Principle. Basically, the One China Principle is that the PRC 🇨🇳 is the one true China, and Taiwan is apart of it, and the ROC government 🇹🇼 is just a fake illegitimate separatist government that needs to be destroyed. That idea evolved into what is now where Taiwan is just a province of China, and it's under an illegitimate separatist government that either needs to step down and relinquish control to allow the mainland government to take it over or be completely eradicated with military force. So, the PRC 🇨🇳's One China Policy called the One China Principle is all about reunification at any cost—or at least their version of reunification—even if that means war. It doesn't make room for reconciliation or coexistence, meaning that according the One China Principle dreamt up by the CCP ☭, the current status quo cannot stand.
With both governments having their own version of a One China Policy (or One China Principle in the PRC 🇨🇳’s case), the rest of the world also embraced this idea of there being only one China, and adopting their own One China Policies. Most of them involve recognizing the PRC 🇨🇳 as China, and not Taiwan, but still recognizing Taiwan as a "self-governing" entity that is not under the laws or jurisdiction of the PRC 🇨🇳, but is not technically its own nation and thus is not recognized as such. That's how we got stuck with the PRC 🇨🇳 being recognized as China, and the ROC 🇹🇼 not being a UN member state 🇺🇳 and not being a member of any international organization, and only having limited recognition by countries that have very little power and influence throughout the world if any.
I've never understood why there couldn't have been a Two China Policy, recognizing both governments as legitimate and as the rightful sovereigns of their respective territories. I know that would go against Chiang Kai-shek's idea of retaking the mainland, but as I wrote before, that was a pipe dream that was never really going to happen, at least not the way Chiang thought it would. The only way he could've realistically retaken the mainland is if he had help from the United States 🇺🇸. If the US 🇺🇸 had decided to invade China 🇨🇳, and topple the PRC government 🇨🇳, and then just install Chiang and the ROC government 🇹🇼 in Beijing or in Nanjing, wherever Chiang decided to have the capital be once he succeeded in retaking the mainland. But of course, that was never going to happen. The US 🇺🇸 was never going to force regime change in China because the risks of such a thing were far too high. Invading China 🇨🇳 would've only started World War III, just as it would now.
People talk about wanting to lower the temperature, and prevent a war between China 🇨🇳 and Taiwan 🇹🇼, and yet they don't even want to do the hard work to do so, they don't want to make compromises, or make the real tough decisions, or even do the most obvious. Just recognize both governments, and let them both in the UN 🇺🇳. The fact that Taiwan 🇹🇼 can't even represent itself in the UN 🇺🇳 and clap back whenever China 🇨🇳 says something stupid or inflammatory is a crime in and of itself.
So, if the UN 🇺🇳 just allowed Taiwan 🇹🇼 to have its own seat in the UN 🇺🇳, either as the Republic of China or as just Taiwan, and the international community gave Taiwan 🇹🇼 it so greatly deserves, a lot of these problems would be alleviated. The ambiguity that often gets both sides into trouble would no longer be there. The temperature would actually be lowered. Sure, China 🇨🇳 would be upset at this, but who cares what they think? Let them be anger and sulk all the want. We're not here to appease them or give them what they want. We're here to protect the world, and prevent a world war.
I mean, this sort of thing works perfectly fine for North Korea 🇰🇵 (DPRK) and South Korea 🇰🇷 (ROK). The world recognize them both, and they both have seats in the UN 🇺🇳 and are both members of other international organizations. South Korea 🇰🇷 more so than North Korea 🇰🇵, but you know what I mean. Why can't we do the same for China 🇨🇳 and Taiwan 🇹🇼? The One China Policy is an old outdated idea that no longer fits the realities of our world, and it needs to be thrown in the trash 🗑️. The One China Policy is just endangering us, and increasing tensions rather than protecting us and lowering tensions. We need a Two China Policy.
I've talking in this note about Taiwan 🇹🇼, and I haven't even got into the reason why I'm posting this now of all times. I'm posting it now because yesterday, Monday May 20, 2024, Lai Ching-te AKA William Lai was sworn in as the new President of Taiwan 🇹🇼. The much anticipated inauguration happened yesterday, and now the country is under new leadership after 8 years of Tsai Ing-wen, the country's first female president ♀︎. Lai Ching-te of course was the DPP (Democratic Progressive Party)'s candidate in this year's election, and Tsai Ing-wen is also a member of the DPP.
He was also Tsai's vice president during her presidency. So, it a lot of ways, it really is a continuation of Tsai's presidency. It would've been like if Al Gore had won the 2000 presidential election and became the president after Bill Clinton, instead of George W. Bush. He was Clinton's vice president, and had he won the 2000 election, it would've sort felt like a continuation of Clinton's presidency as I'm sure Gore would've carried over a lot of Clinton's policies to his presidency and carried over a lot of the same people. While of course having his own policies, and doing things to make his presidency his own, and set himself apart from Clinton. As I'm sure Lai Ching-te will during his course of his presidency.
Speaking of which, a lot of observers and people more familiar with Taiwan 🇹🇼's political system than I am believe that he'll continue many of the same policies that Tsai had put into place. There will be much more continuity between this new administration and the previous one than if the KMT's candidate, Hou Yu-ih or the TPP (Taiwan People's Party)'s candidate, Ko Wen-je had won. Which thankfully, neither of them did. While of course, as I said, Lai will do things that will set his presidency from his predecessor's, and will make his presidency his own and not an exact copy of Tsai's.
I guess it would be if like Biden gets re-elected for a second term, and then after that second term was up, and the 2028 presidential election happened, another Democrat was elected as president. We here in the US 🇺🇸 haven't had a political party win presidential elections consecutively in many years. We've kept alternating between the Republicans and the Democrats all this time. Like, if we had a Republican president, then we'd have a Democratic president, then a Republican president, and then a Democratic president. It just went back and forward like that.
That's the way it's been for decades. We haven't had a situation where we've had a Democratic president followed up by another Democratic president in a long time. But, given the current landscape, perhaps this cycle will be broken and we will have two Democratic presidents in a row in the next 8 years. Maybe the president after Biden will also be a Democrat, if he wins re-election this year. Especially if the Republican Party keeps going in the direction it's going, and continues to become stupider and more extreme. Then they will continue to lose elections, presidential or otherwise.
But anyway, enough about American politics 🇺🇸, let's get back to Taiwanese politics 🇹🇼 please. Lai actually did lay something similar to a Two China Policy as I described it, saying that Taiwan 🇹🇼 is already an independent country that happens to be under the name, the Republic of China. So the accusation by Beijing of the DPP advocating for "Taiwanese independence" makes no sense and has little basis in reality. The DPP's official position is not so much that Taiwan 🇹🇼 should become an independent country, but that it is already an independent country and should be recognized and treated as such. Not just by China 🇨🇳, but by the rest of the world as well.
He also said something to the effect of, China 🇨🇳 should get over itself, and drop its ambitions of "reunification" and just accept the fact that Taiwan 🇹🇼 is an independent country with the right to exist, and not a province, and that it should learn to coexist with Taiwan 🇹🇼. The only thing he didn't say is that Taiwan 🇹🇼 should have a seat in the UN 🇺🇳 alongside China 🇨🇳. You watch a full breakdown of Lai's inaugural speech by the Taiwanese news program 🇹🇼, Taiwan Talks 🇹🇼. They have a YouTube channel, and they put out a video talking about the inauguration the day it happened. Here it is. Don't worry, it's in English. I wouldn't have watched it, nor would I recommend it if it weren't.
There's a couple of other news topics that I want to quickly discuss before I finally let you read this thing. I don't know when or if I'll get to talk about these in any other place, so I'm doing it here. First off, the International Criminal Court (ICC) ⚖️ issued arrest warrants for Benjamin Netanyahu, Yahya Sinwar and many other Israeli and Hamas officials 🇮🇱. The reason of course is their conduct so far during the war in Gaza.
The ICC ⚖️ wants Sinwar and other top Hamas officials because of the October 7 attack which was a terrorist attack and was objectively a war crime since it blatantly targeted civilians. Civilians made the vast majority of causalities during the October 7 attack. And the ICC ⚖️ wants Netanyahu and other top Israeli officials 🇮🇱 because they've been accused of war crimes, and not abiding by the rules of warfare, bombing civilian targets with weak justifications (bombing hospitals, bombing apartment buildings, bombing schools, bombing mosques, bombing churches, etc.), targeting aid workers and blocking humanitarian aid from getting to the Palestinians 🇵🇸 inside Gaza. And basically engaging in collective punishment by bombing civilian infrastructure inside Gaza pretty much indiscriminately and starving the entire Palestinian civilian population 🇵🇸 in Gaza almost to the point of famine. Some of which are Christian ✝️ BTW. Not all Palestinians 🇵🇸 are Muslim ☪️, which is why I mentioned those churches that were bombed by the Israelis 🇮🇱. All things that are considered war crimes and crimes against humanity under international law.
This is the first time, to my knowledge at least (my knowledge on the Middle East is limited), that an Israeli leader 🇮🇱, or any Israeli official 🇮🇱 for that matter, has had an arrest warrant put out for them by the ICC ⚖️. If Netanyahu and these other Israeli officials 🇮🇱 are arrested and tried at The Hague, and found guilty, it'll be the first time that Israeli officials 🇮🇱 have been tried and charged with war crimes. That's Netanyahu for you. He's the reason why things got to this point, and why Israel 🇮🇱's reputation amongst the international community is in the toilet 🚽 right now. Netanyahu is a real yahoo, that’s for sure 👎. A nasty piece of work that guy.
Too bad the ICC ⚖️ didn't issue an arrest warrant for George W. Bush and other top American officials 🇺🇸 for the war in Iraq 🇮🇶. Lots of war crimes were committed during that war by both sides, including Americans 🇺🇸 (Americans 🇺🇸 were by no means innocent in this war, they did commit a lot of war crimes), and no one was held accountable, whether they'd be Iraqi 🇮🇶 or American 🇺🇸. There were other people involved in the Iraq War 🇮🇶 too, a lot of other countries and foreign fighters, but you know what I'm saying. It was an American war 🇺🇸 fought on Iraqi soil 🇮🇶, against the Iraqis 🇮🇶, both the Iraqi military 🇮🇶 during the invasion when Saddam was still in-charge, and then after the invasion during the occupation when the insurgency began. Most of the insurgents were Iraqis 🇮🇶 who took up arms to fight for their country against the Americans 🇺🇸 who they just saw foreign invaders and occupiers, not as liberators as the Bush administration had hoped for in the beginning.
Speaking of the US 🇺🇸, when the ICC ⚖️ announced that it had issued these arrest warrants out for Netanyahu and these other Israeli officials 🇮🇱, the US 🇺🇸 was upset by this 😡. Both Biden and Secretary of State, Antony Blinken put out statements condemning the ICC ⚖️'s decision to issue arrest warrants for Netanyahu and other Israeli officials 🇮🇱. They do realize that the ICC ⚖️ issued for Hamas officials too, right 🙄?
It wasn't just Israeli officials 🇮🇱 that they went after, it was Hamas officials too. And the US 🇺🇸 considers Hamas to be a terrorist organization. The ICC ⚖️ is definitely not playing favorites or protecting anyone. It's trying to hold them to the same standard, and send the message that no one is immune from the law, and will be punished if they violate international law. This is the reason so many people consider the Biden administration's position on the Israel-Hamas War 🇮🇱 to be so confusing and so wishy-washy.
They're critical of Netanyahu, they haven't liked Israel 🇮🇱's conduct during the war so far, and they want humanitarian aid to get into Gaza, and they don't want the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) 🇮🇱 to go into Rafah, the last refuge for Palestinians 🇵🇸 inside Gaza. It's enough of a red line for them that they were willing to pause the shipment of lethal aid to Israel 🇮🇱, which they did, and made pretty much every pro-Israel 🇮🇱 politician in Washington (at the least the people are pretending to be for the sake of partisan politics) upset 😠. And yet, the moment that the Israelis 🇮🇱 are held even just a little bit accountable for their actions by an international organization like the ICC ⚖️ (an institution that's generally trusted and well liked throughout most of the world), they get upset about it and condemn the ICC ⚖️ 😡, saying that they had no business getting involved. It feels like they want to have things both ways.
They want to support Israel 🇮🇱, and give them everything want to continue fighting this war, and they want to appease the forces in and outside the US 🇺🇸 that highly critical of Israel 🇮🇱's conduct during the war, and want an immediate ceasefire since a lot of the people protesting the war and advocating for a ceasefire are necessary for Biden to win the election this year, without coming across as antisemitic or Islamophobic. Biden issued his statement against the ICC ⚖️ at a Jewish event ✡️ that was commemorating the Holocaust, that should tell you a lot.
As much as Biden is at odds with Netanyahu, he is still very pro-Israel 🇮🇱 (he has a classic pro-Israel position 🇮🇱), and is still willing to work with him and give him what he wants. Even if he's the reason the Palestinian Authority 🇵🇸 is so weak, why the Israeli settlements 🇮🇱 in the West Bank have expanded, why Hamas became powerful enough to attack Israel 🇮🇱 on October the 7th, why the people in Gaza are suffering, why it's so difficult to get humanitarian aid into Gaza, and why the peace process is so undermined and untenable. Netanyahu is not a good guy. He’s not worth defending or protecting. He's part of the reason why things have fallen apart for Israel 🇮🇱 and Palestine 🇵🇸.
My attitude is that if you care about international law, if you want countries to abide by the rules based international order, and you want governments and government officials to be held accountable for the things they do in warfare, then you should be okay with this. The Israeli government and military 🇮🇱 are finally being somewhat held accountable for their bad behavior by an international institution, and you're first reaction is to be upset about it 😡 and condemn these institutions for doing their job and trying to to hold these people accountable? It makes us look bad. It makes the US 🇺🇸 look hypocritical, and it makes it obvious that we hold Israel 🇮🇱 to an entirely different standard than we do other countries.
We let Israel 🇮🇱 get away with things that we would never let other countries get away with, just because it's a Jewish state ✡️, and the Israeli leadership 🇮🇱 can hide behind the accusation of antisemitism whenever an international organization like the ICC ⚖️ tries to hold them accountable for the bad stuff they do. And the US 🇺🇸 just lets them do it because they're our ally, and we need them for the balance of power in the Middle East, and prevent Iran 🇮🇷 from gaining more influence, among other things.
I mean, the US 🇺🇸 was perfectly fine with the ICC ⚖️ putting out arrest warrants for Vladimir Putin and Maria Lvova-Belova. They didn't put any statements condemning that decision then. In fact, they congratulated the ICC ⚖️ for doing that. But, the moment the ICC ⚖️ did the same to Netanyahu and other Israeli officials 🇮🇱, then the US 🇺🇸 gets all up and arms about it, and condemns the decision and says the ICC ⚖️ has no jurisdiction inside of Gaza or whatever stupid bullshit Blinken said.
They were fine with it when it happened to Russia 🇷🇺, but not to Israel 🇮🇱, even though Israel 🇮🇱 is pretty much doing the same shit to Gaza that Russia 🇷🇺 has been doing to Ukraine 🇺🇦 for the past 3 years. These are not baseless accusations, there is actual concrete evidence to prove that the Israelis 🇮🇱 have been committing war crimes inside of Gaza, and have been violating international law and the violating the rules of warfare. Israel 🇮🇱's excuses for a lot of these are that these were accidents, or that these buildings had Hamas militants in them or they had weapons stockpiles in them therefore they were legitimate military targets. But, these are just excuses, and pretty lame excuses if you ask me. Any way you look at it, the Israelis 🇮🇱 are acting in bad faith. Netanyahu is acting in bad faith. They're just upset that it happened to an ally of theirs, rather than an adversary like Russia 🇷🇺 is. If just Hamas officials were issued arrest warrants, and not Israeli ones 🇮🇱, you wouldn't hear a peep about it from Washington.
As someone who is critical of both Israel 🇮🇱 and Hamas, and think both sides at fault for this war and the humanitarian catastrophe inside Gaza, I think my government, the US government 🇺🇸 just needs to step aside, shut their yaps, and let the ICC ⚖️ do its thing. If you really care about international law, if you really care about human rights, and if you really care about the Palestinians' 🇵🇸 well being, and if you really care about these international institutions, then you wouldn't have an issue with this. All you do by opposing a decision or a move like this is make us look hypocritical, indecisive, and like we're playing favorites, and like we want our allies to held to a different standard than our adversaries when everyone should be held to same standard whether they are our allies or our adversaries.
It's reactions like this why the US 🇺🇸 is so isolated when it comes to the Israel-Palestine issue 🇮🇱🇵🇸, and why hardly anyone believes the US 🇺🇸 when it says that it wants things to change between Israel 🇮🇱 and Palestine 🇵🇸. All you're signing by reacting that way is that you don't actually want things to change, and you just want to preserve some semblance of the status quo even though that status quo you want to maintain has been shattered forever and there's no going back.
That all being said though, I'm still voting for Biden this November. A disagreement over Israel 🇮🇱 and Gaza is not enough for me to drop my support for Biden. There's too much at stake in this election for that type of thinking. I'm much more mature and pragmatic than that. I will not allow Trump to win. He mustn't win, otherwise our country will take a turn for the worst. Our country will become a dictatorship if he wins. Plus, need I remind you that Netanyahu endorses Trump, and wants him to be the president? Netanyahu has inserted himself with American politics 🇺🇸 multiple times, and has cozied up to Republicans in the past, including Donald Trump.
And of course, he wants Trump to be president again because he knows that Trump will let him do whatever wants, and won't criticize him, or talk about human rights, or about a two-state solution or anything like that. He'll let him expand the settlements in the West Bank, perhaps even completely annex the West Bank, and perhaps, even let him re-occupy the Gaza Strip, and drive the Palestinians 🇵🇸 out of there to built Israeli settlements 🇮🇱 there. Trump was the one who made the asinine decision to move the US embassy 🇺🇸 to Jerusalem, a move that many people saw as provocative and escalatory and one of the things that motivated Hamas to attack Israel 🇮🇱 on October 7, 2023 in the first place. Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law, talked about demolishing Gaza, and replacing it all with beach front property for the rich and powerful 🤑. So, anything would go for Israel 🇮🇱 under a Trump presidency in the US 🇺🇸. They'd have free reign to do whatever want, no longer how awful it is.
So, if you care about the Palestinians 🇵🇸, and you don't want them to be mistreated by the Israelis 🇮🇱 anymore, then you mustn't vote for Trump, and you must vote for Biden. Every problem that you have with Israel 🇮🇱 right now would so much worse under a second Trump presidency than a continued Biden presidency. Keep in that mind, when you go to the voting booth this November, all of my American readers 🇺🇸. If you hate Netanyahu keep in mind that Trump is the guy who he wants to be president. Biden all the way for me.
Speaking of Iran 🇮🇷 though, that's the last news topic I will discuss before wrapping this note up. The Iranian president 🇮🇷, Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter crash 🚁💥 a couple of days ago on Sunday May 19, 2024. He was visiting Azerbaijan 🇦🇿, a country with close ties to Iran 🇮🇷, on an official state visit when his helicopter 🚁 crashed near a village called Uzi in Varzaqan County in East Azerbaijan province. I was initially confused because I thought the crash happened in the country, Azerbaijan 🇦🇿, but no, it didn't.
It happened in an Iranian province 🇮🇷 called East Azerbaijan Province, which is on the border with the actual country, Azerbaijan 🇦🇿. And Raisi was meeting with the Azerbaijani president 🇦🇿, Ilham Aliyev before the crash happened. Given that the crash happened on Iranian soil 🇮🇷, I think it's safe to assume that Raisi was on his way back from the Azerbaijani border 🇦🇿 when the crash happened. Now, Raisi wasn't the only Iranian official 🇮🇷 who died in this crash, there others who were killed in the crash as well, but he is the most notable one since you know, he was the President of Iran 🇮🇷. So, now everyone's wondering what will happen to the country now that Raisi's dead, and there is no president. They have an acting president who's filling the position until an actual president can be chosen.
There are no real elections inside Iran 🇮🇷, no free and fair ones anyway, and the Iranian people 🇮🇷 really don't get that much of a say in who their leaders are. They didn't really choose Raisi to be their president in the first place. Will this lead to any significant political changes inside Iran 🇮🇷? Probably not. It'll still probably be the same Islamic Republic that it has been since 1979. This likely won't lead to some revolution that will topple the current government inside Tehran, and lead to a more democratic future. That being said, Raisi was a bad guy. He did a lot of bad things during his time as president of this theocratic nation.
And similar to Qasem Soleimani, he won't be missed by anyone who isn't in line with the regime. Like, none of the opposition groups in and outside of Iran 🇮🇷 will be too upset that this horrible man ♂︎ is dead. In fact, when the news broke that his helicopter 🚁 crashed, and he was missing, I saw a few comments saying that this was karma for everything he had done during his presidency, especially in regards to the crackdown on the women's protests ♀︎🪧 that took place in the country in 2022.
So, most people don't really consider Raisi's death to be a huge loss. Especially since nothing will actually change inside Iran 🇮🇷 as a result of this. But either way, this was one of the craziest stories I've heard in a long time. It came out of nowhere, no one was expecting it, and it just was dropped on us like an Acme anvil. Who would've thought that the Iranian president 🇮🇷 would've taken out by a helicopter crash 🚁💥 on Iranian soil 🇮🇷 after visiting Azerbaijan 🇦🇿 of all places?
At least Azerbaijan 🇦🇿 isn't in the news for killing any Armenians 🇦🇲, or for being involved in a bribery scandal involving a US politician 🇺🇸 and his wife this time. That US politician 🇺🇸 BTW was Henry Cuellar, Democratic US representative 🇺🇸 for Texas's 28th congressional district. He and his wife were were both charged by a federal grand jury in Texas for allegedly accepting $600,000 💵 worth of bribes from Azerbaijan 🇦🇿 and from a Mexican bank 🇲🇽🏦 to influence US policy 🇺🇸. The Wikipedia page on Cuellar didn't say what kind of policy, but I assume foreign policy. What other kind of policy would the Azerbaijani government 🇦🇿 and a Mexican bank 🇲🇽🏦 want to influence? With that out of the way, let's get on with the main post.
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One disadvantage that Taiwan 🇹🇼 has that Ukraine 🇺🇦 did not have, is that it is not an international recognized country with full UN membership 🇺🇳. It's a partially recognized country with no UN membership 🇺🇳. It used to be in the UN 🇺🇳. It occupied the Chinese seat in the UN General Assembly and UN Security Council (the permanent seat) 🇺🇳. But, it lost its UN membership 🇺🇳 once the international community decided to recognize the People's Republic of China (PRC) 🇨🇳 as the legitimate China rather than them, the Republic of China (ROC) 🇹🇼. In fact, its name, the Republic of China 🇹🇼 is part of Taiwan 🇹🇼's problem as far as international recognition goes.
The fact that it has China in its name, and its constitution says that it is the one true China is what prevents Taiwan 🇹🇼 from obtaining full international recognition and full UN membership 🇺🇳. If it was just called the Republic of Taiwan, and didn't have its constitution that is is the true China, and didn't claim all the territory that it currently claims (something that was carryover from when it ruled over the mainland), then things might be different. But, Taiwan 🇹🇼 is not called that, it's called the Republic of China, ROC 🇹🇼, and it still maintains the same claim that it is the true China and still maintains the same territorial claims; that's the status quo, it's not ideal, but it works.
So, if there is another crisis, if there is another war in the Taiwan Strait, and China 🇨🇳 tries to launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan 🇹🇼, it will have a tough gaining the same international support that Ukraine 🇺🇦 did when Russia 🇷🇺 launched its full-scale invasion. Certainly, you probably wouldn't be able to make the same argument against the invasion that the West did against the Russian invasion of Ukraine 🇷🇺🇺🇦, that it's against international rule, it's violating another country's sovereignty and territorial integrity because Taiwan 🇹🇼 is not recognized as a sovereign country by most of the world, not even by its allies like the US 🇺🇸, Japan 🇯🇵, and Australia 🇦🇺.
And Taiwan 🇹🇼's territory and territorial waters are not necessarily recognized as its sovereign territory, it's seen by most of the world as "disputed territory." So, it might be harder to make a legal case for why China 🇨🇳's invasion is wrong the same international laws don't necessarily apply to Taiwan 🇹🇼 due to the lack of international recognition and the lack of full membership in the UN 🇺🇳.
You could make a moral case for why China 🇨🇳's invasion would be wrong if it ever happened, like it is morally wrong for China 🇨🇳 to invade Taiwan 🇹🇼 and annex it into its territory; it's morally wrong for China 🇨🇳 to kill Taiwanese civilians 🇹🇼 if they targeted civilians during their invasion, which I'm pretty sure they would, let's be honest here; we don't want to see the Taiwanese people 🇹🇼 suffer and die. But, it'll be a bit harder to make an actual legal case for why China 🇨🇳's military actions towards Taiwan 🇹🇼 are wrong, and why we would condemn them or punish them like we did Russia 🇷🇺 after they invaded Ukraine 🇺🇦.
Ukraine 🇺🇦 had the advantage of being recognized as a sovereign country by the international community, and having full UN membership 🇺🇳. So, when Russia 🇷🇺 invaded, the West was able to argue that Russia 🇷🇺's actions were not just immoral, but were also illegal under international law, and under the UN Charter 🇺🇳. And thus, the UN 🇺🇳 was able to take some action against Russia 🇷🇺, and were able to pass resolutions condemning their invasion, and urging them to withdrawal; they didn't officially sanction Russia 🇷🇺, the sanctions were something the US 🇺🇸, the UK 🇬🇧, Australia 🇦🇺, and the EU 🇪🇺 were doing on their own, without the UN 🇺🇳.
All of that was thanks to Ukraine 🇺🇦 having full international recognition as a sovereign nation, and having full UN membership 🇺🇳, the legal case against Russia 🇷🇺 was able to be made. Plus, it allowed the Ukrainian delegation 🇺🇦 to confront the Russian delegation 🇷🇺 directly within the General Assembly and the Security Council. I mean, during the most recent UN Summit 🇺🇳 in New York, Zelenskyy appeared, and condemned Russia 🇷🇺 and their invasion, right in front of the Russian UN Ambassador 🇷🇺🇺🇳; Putin did not appear because of the ICC warrant ⚖️ out for his arrest. That's not something that Taiwan 🇹🇼 can do, that's not something the Taiwanese leadership 🇹🇼 can do; they can't stand up to the Chinese delegation 🇨🇳 at the UN 🇺🇳, and condemn their actions right to their faces, as much as they would probably want to.
Some countries have indicated that they probably wouldn't stand up to China 🇨🇳 if it attacked Taiwan 🇹🇼, like France 🇫🇷. France 🇫🇷 said that if China 🇨🇳 ever attacked Taiwan 🇹🇼, they would not come to their defense, and this was an issue between just China 🇨🇳 and Taiwan 🇹🇼, and that Europe 🇪🇺 shouldn't get involved at all. They probably wouldn't even agree to sanction China 🇨🇳 if that's their policy towards the Taiwan issue 🇹🇼. But then, it was Macron that said that, and he's been known to say a lot of stupid and short-sighted things when it comes to Russia 🇷🇺 and China 🇨🇳. He still thinks that negotiations with Russia 🇷🇺 are still possible, even though they clearly aren't, and the only way to end the war is to help Ukraine 🇺🇦 defeat Russia 🇷🇺; the war in Ukraine 🇺🇦 can only end and end with lasting peace with a Ukrainian victory 🇺🇦.
But then again, we don't know. We don't know exactly what the international response to a war in the Taiwan Strait would be. The UN 🇺🇳 might decide to pass a bunch of resolutions to condemn China 🇨🇳's actions, and even pass resolutions to sanction China 🇨🇳, or pass a resolution to take military action against China 🇨🇳, however unlike those last two would be given China 🇨🇳's status as a permanent member of the UN Security Council 🇺🇳. They could easily just veto any and all resolutions against them just like Russia 🇷🇺 has been doing ever since they launched their invasion of Ukraine 🇺🇦.
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Plus, the last time that the West went to the defense of a country that wasn't really fully recognized by the international community or didn't have full UN membership 🇺🇳 was the Kosovo War 🇽🇰. Kosovo 🇽🇰 was a breakaway country from Serbia 🇷🇸 (known then as Yugoslavia), and while it was recognized by the NATO countries, it wasn't recognized by most of the rest of the world, and didn't have seat at the UN 🇺🇳.
It still doesn't to this day I believe, and it isn't even qualified for NATO membership or EU membership 🇪🇺 despite being directly administered by the UN 🇺🇳 after the war was over from 1999 to 2008, and despite having NATO peacekeeping forces still occupying the territory. There is still a UN mission 🇺🇳 in Kosovo 🇽🇰 called the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo 🇺🇳, or UNMIK 🇺🇳 for short, along with the NATO peacekeeping force (known as KFOR), but it's day-to-day operations have been minor ever since Kosovo 🇽🇰 declared independence in 2008.
And NATO was on its own during the Kosovo War 🇽🇰. They did not have any sort of support from the UN 🇺🇳 for their actions in defending Kosovo 🇽🇰 and bombing Yugoslavia (AKA Serbia and Montenegro 🇷🇸🇲🇪) like they did during the Bosnian War 🇧🇦. And thus did not have the same level of legitimacy that their intervention in Bosnia 🇧🇦 did. UN support 🇺🇳 did not come until after the war was over.
The same thing with Somaliland, Somaliland is not recognized as a legitimate sovereign country by the international community and doesn't have UN membership 🇺🇳 despite the fact it is functionally an independent country and has been one ever since it broke away from Somalia 🇸🇴 after the civil war started there. In fact, it has been much more stable and democratic than Somalia 🇸🇴 has been all this time since the civil war broke out. It could be the same thing in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan 🇨🇳🇹🇼, where Taiwan 🇹🇼, the US 🇺🇸, the UK 🇬🇧, Australia 🇦🇺, Japan 🇯🇵, and maybe South Korea 🇰🇷 are on their own, and don't have the support of the UN 🇺🇳. Not even when it comes to sanctions, sanctions against China 🇨🇳 for invading Taiwan 🇹🇼 may end up being a unilateral move by the US 🇺🇸 and its allies without the UN 🇺🇳 agreeing to sanction China 🇨🇳.
I hope not, I hope that the UN 🇺🇳 has learned its lesson from Kosovo 🇽🇰 and Somaliland, or even the previous three Taiwan Strait Crises, and actually stands up China 🇨🇳, or at the very least, support Taiwan 🇹🇼 in its struggle, rather than just leaving it to its fate, or letting the US 🇺🇸 do it all its own without giving them support whatsoever; especially since Taiwan 🇹🇼 is a functional self-governing country with its own military, its own constitution, its own currency, and was a lot more of a country than Kosovo 🇽🇰 was during the Kosovo War 🇽🇰.
At the very least, the UN 🇺🇳 should be involved in the peacemaking process (like a ceasefire agreement), and should offer a peacekeeping force, as token of a gesture as that would probably be. Maybe, a war between China 🇨🇳 and Taiwan 🇹🇼 (a full-scale war between the two countries) would lead to the UN 🇺🇳 giving Taiwan 🇹🇼 its own seat separate from China 🇨🇳, perhaps under the condition that it changes its name, change its constitution (not a whole lot, just drop any reference to China or being China), and drops all territorial claims over mainland China or any of the surrounding countries—Taiwan 🇹🇼 also claims territory in other countries like Mongolia 🇲🇳, Afghanistan 🇦🇫, Tajikistan 🇹🇯, Myanmar 🇲🇲, India 🇮🇳, Bhutan 🇧🇹, and Russia 🇷🇺—no matter how much it would make China 🇨🇳 angry; who would even care at that point if China 🇨🇳 was upset about that, they would've already crossed the line by invading Taiwan 🇹🇼 in the first place, this would effectively be part of their punishment.
That's if an invasion of Taiwan 🇹🇼 didn't lead to World War III, and didn't lead to nuclear war ☢️ specifically, which there is a risk it would just given all that players would inevitably be involved like the US 🇺🇸, the UK 🇬🇧, Japan 🇯🇵, South Korea 🇰🇷 (potentially), Australia 🇦🇺, the Philippines 🇵🇭 (potentially). Vietnam 🇻🇳 may even get in on the action, given how relations between Vietnam 🇻🇳 and China 🇨🇳 have deteriorated over the course of the past couple of years, mostly over disputes over the South China Sea.
China 🇨🇳 may even encourage North Korea 🇰🇵 to get involved, and attack South Korea 🇰🇷 as a way of creating a second front in the war to divert Allied men and resources away from the fight in Taiwan 🇹🇼 and the Taiwan Strait. Although such a move would a lot less in China 🇨🇳's best interest than a lot of people might think, since opening a second front in Korea might mean China 🇨🇳 may have to divert some of its forces away from the fight against Taiwan 🇹🇼 to assist North Korea 🇰🇵 especially if North Korea 🇰🇵 proves militarily inadequate to fight against South Korea 🇰🇷. Such a thing would weaken their war effort against Taiwan 🇹🇼, and make it easier for Taiwan 🇹🇼 and its allies to achieve victory against them. So, China 🇨🇳 getting North Korea 🇰🇵 involved, or opening a second front on the Korean Peninsula would hurt them just as much as it would hurt us, maybe even more; not really all that worth it.
This would not just be a small tiny skirmish, it would be a major full-scale war, the likes of which we have not seen in Asia and the Pacific since World War II, the naval warfare alone would be bigger than anything that we have seen since World War II (since the Pacific War). The entire region would probably be pulled into the conflict, whether they would want to or not. The economic effects of the war would be global, since Taiwan 🇹🇼's semiconductor industry, all of their semiconductor factories, would be put at risk since China 🇨🇳 would likely target them to hurt Taiwan 🇹🇼 economically, and to pressure the rest of the world to let them have Taiwan 🇹🇼; and semiconductors are necessary to make chips for computers, cellphones, and other electronics.
This would be the biggest geopolitical event of the century (so far), like it would make the Russo-Ukrainian War 🇷🇺🇺🇦 look minor by comparison; people would not be able to ignore this, at least not for long. That's all the more reason why this should not happen, and why the UN 🇺🇳 and the international community should step up if it ever does. We cannot let Taiwan 🇹🇼 fall. We must protect their freedom, we must protect their democracy at all costs. They deserve our support just as much as Ukraine 🇺🇦 does.
But, until then, we the West must do everything we can in our power to deter China 🇨🇳 from taking such a drastic and violent course of action, and maintain the status quo, however unideal it is. That way, no one has to do any fighting at all. That means keeping the temperature down, avoiding any rhetoric or any action that could be seen by the Chinese 🇨🇳 as a provocation, such as calls for independence. Taiwanese politicians 🇹🇼, and Taiwanese presidents 🇹🇼 must avoid making direct allusions to independence or of course flat out saying that they want independence.
The presidential elections in Taiwan 🇹🇼 are coming up in 2024, and one thing that Taiwan experts 🇹🇼, such as those from the think tank known as the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), have urged US officials 🇺🇸 to do is to avoid any unnecessary inflammatory or provocative actions such as visiting the newly election Taiwanese president 🇹🇼, whoever that maybe, during or immediately after the inauguration. Wait a little bit for things to settle down, maybe just make a congratulatory phone call 📞 to the new president, so that China 🇨🇳 doesn't get angry and provoked into taking action against Taiwan 🇹🇼.
They want to avoid another Taiwan Strait Crisis, like what happened in the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis, where China 🇨🇳 launched missiles at Taiwan 🇹🇼 during the presidential election in 1996. China 🇨🇳 is like a petulant child, you can't make them too angry and upset by saying thing they don't want to hear or doing things they don't want you to do otherwise they'll throw a temper tantrum, that's how China 🇨🇳's government acts, how the Chinese Communist Party 🇨🇳☭ acts.
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Update (Tuesday May 21, 2024):
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One quick correction, China 🇨🇳 didn't technically launch missiles at Taiwan 🇹🇼 during the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis. They were just conducting missile tests in the waters 💦 near Taiwan 🇹🇼, rather than launch missiles with live munitions at Taiwan 🇹🇼 itself. If it had, then there would've been a full-scale war between the two countries, and we would've had World War III in 1996. But, these missile tests were still seen as pretty provocative act by the Chinese 🇨🇳, and they were still seen as big enough threat that the US 🇺🇸 felt the need to step in, and respond. It's just like whenever North Korea 🇰🇵 carries out a nuclear test ☢️ or a missile test. It's not an act of war obviously, but it is still seen as a provocative act that the US 🇺🇸 and other powers feel the need to respond to. Usually with sanctions. But, no sanctions were placed on China 🇨🇳 for them doing this as far as I know.
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