Iran 🇮🇷's Role in the Israel-Hamas War 🇮🇱

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This was originally written on Thursday October 12, 2023, a week after the Hamas attack on Israel 🇮🇱. I wrote this after that first initial piece I wrote the day after the attack happened, and I basically address Iran 🇮🇷's role in the attack, and in the subsequent war, or lack thereof. I remember in the days after the attack happened, and after Israel 🇮🇱 began its bombing campaign in the Gaza Strip, everyone immediately blamed Iran 🇮🇷 for orchestrating the attacks, or having some role in training Hamas to carry out this most daring and deadly attack. Why did so many people immediately point the finger at Iran 👉🇮🇷? Well because Iran 🇮🇷 is a regional power within the Middle East, and it is a hostile neighbor to Israel 🇮🇱, even though Iran 🇮🇷 doesn't actually border Israel 🇮🇱. They're separated by a peninsula and a gulf. 

They're probably the one Middle Eastern Muslim country ☪️ that's the most hostile to Israel 🇮🇱 since many of the others are actually ended their hostilities towards Israel 🇮🇱, and have become warming relations with the Jewish state ✡️, at least before the October 7 attacks happened. I'll put it this way, the governments of these Muslim countries ☪️ have ended their open hostilities and opposition to Israel 🇮🇱 and want to have friendlier relations with it, even if it comes at the expense of Palestinian issue 🇵🇸, while their populations still hate Israel 🇮🇱 and still care about the Palestinian issue 🇵🇸 and want their governments to play a bigger and more productive role in resolving it that don't just involve placating to Israel 🇮🇱, while Israel 🇮🇱 doesn't have to make any concessions or sacrifices of its own. 

They want Israel 🇮🇱. to end its occupation of the West Bank and end its blockade of Gaza, and remove and all Israeli settlements 🇮🇱, and force all of the Israeli settlers 🇮🇱 to leave and go back to Israel 🇮🇱 proper, and allow for a true Palestinian state 🇵🇸 to take shape in both Gaza and the West Bank. That's a pretty tall order for any government, but that's what the people of these Muslim countries ☪️ in the Middle East want their governments to do in regards to Israel 🇮🇱 and Palestine 🇵🇸. They want them to take a stronger, more critical, and maybe even antagonistic stance towards Israel 🇮🇱, and force them to end their occupation and military control over the Palestinian territories 🇵🇸. 

But, not Iran 🇮🇷. In case of Iran 🇮🇷, the government is the one that really hates Israel 🇮🇱, and wants Israel 🇮🇱 to be destroyed, simply because it's a Jewish state ✡️, and they see it as a puppet of the United States 🇺🇸. The Iranian population 🇮🇷 also doesn't like Israel 🇮🇱, and while some of it is genuine disgust and disdain for Israel 🇮🇱's policies towards Gaza and the West Bank, some of it is unnatural, and was drilled into them by years and years of propaganda. The Iranian government 🇮🇷 wants their people to hate Israel 🇮🇱 just as they want them to hate the United States 🇺🇸 and even Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦 because it helps them maintain their control over the country and the people, and it helps distract people from the country's internal problems by focusing their anger and hatred towards a foreign adversary. 

I mean, that sort of thing isn't working as good anymore given the women's protests ♀︎🪧 that happened last year, and the continued, but scaled down resistance that the Iranian people 🇮🇷 have been carrying out since the government violently cracked down on the protests 🪧. The Iranian people 🇮🇷 hate their government, and no amount of anti-American 🚫🇺🇸 or anti-Israeli 🚫🇮🇱 propaganda will change that. The only thing that would actually reverse that is if the US 🇺🇸 and/or Israel 🇮🇱 invaded Iran 🇮🇷, then the Iranian regime 🇮🇷 would have an easier time distracting the population from their tyrannical rule and the country's internal problems by rallying them against a foreign aggressor that's invading their country, since there would be a foreign aggressor invading their country. 

After all, this is what the regime did after Saddam Hussein invaded Iran 🇮🇷 in 1980, sparking the 8 year long Iran-Iraq War 🇮🇷🇮🇶. That war was a baptism by fire 🔥 for the Islamic Republic 🇮🇷, and really cemented the regime's control over the country. Had that war never happened, had Saddam never invaded, the regime's grip on power might've still shaky, and the Iranian people 🇮🇷 might have turned against the regime and resisted its more draconian laws, such as the restrictions on women's rights ♀︎, which Iranian women 🇮🇷♀︎ did have issue with even back then. Women ♀︎ don't like it when you take their right away, who would've thought? That's one of the reasons, among many, why an invasion of Iran 🇮🇷 is a really bad idea, and why we should never invade Iran 🇮🇷, unless we absolutely had to. 

Luckily, it seems the US government 🇺🇸 and the US military 🇺🇸 has somewhat learned their lesson from Iraq 🇮🇶, and has decided not to overtly attack Iran 🇮🇷, either airstrikes or with a full-scale invasion, because they know that a war with Iran 🇮🇷 would be a much more difficult prospect than a war with Iraq 🇮🇶 ever was. Even during the Bush administration and the height of the Global War on Terrorism (GWOT), the US 🇺🇸 still didn't make any moves on Iran 🇮🇷 like they had Afghanistan 🇦🇫 or Iraq 🇮🇶 despite George W. Bush adding it to his "Axis of Evil" because they were fully aware that invading Iran 🇮🇷 would be way too hard, and ultimately wouldn't be worth it for how much bloodshed 🩸 it would cause. Especially, when you consider that Operation Iraqi Freedom 🇮🇶 (OIF) really didn't go as smoothly as the Bush administration or the media portrayed.

We would have even less justification for invading Iran 🇮🇷 than we did Iraq 🇮🇶, like we wouldn't really be able to make a convincing argument to the international community and to our own people, the American public 🇺🇸, for why invading this country would be the right thing to do. This isn't the post-9/11 era anymore, where the US government 🇺🇸 could just rely on fear, anger, and hatred caused by the 9/11 attacks to justify any crazy adventure in the Middle East. 

The American people 🇺🇸 would need something more than that. And nothing short of a direct attack by Iran 🇮🇷 against the United States 🇺🇸 in some way would suffice in making the American people 🇺🇸 go along with a war against Iran 🇮🇷. And while, the actual invasion was the easy part of the Iraq War 🇮🇶, an Iran War 🇮🇷 would be difficult right from the get-go, like the invasion phase would be hard in and of itself. Mostly because of the terrain, Iran 🇮🇷 is a mountainous country and not flat desert like Iraq 🇮🇶, but also because of the strong defenses that the Iranian military 🇮🇷 (both the Artesh and the IRGC) would be able to put up against any invasion force that the US 🇺🇸 puts together. 

Plus, it would be an absolute PR disaster for the US 🇺🇸, allowing the Iranian regime 🇮🇷 to look like the victim fighting for its freedom or existence, and give countries like China 🇨🇳 and Russia 🇷🇺 an in to swoop in and look like the good guys and paint the US 🇺🇸 as the aggressor and the bad guy trying to impose its will on a smaller and weaker country. Which is exactly what they did after the US 🇺🇸 invaded Iraq 🇮🇶. In fact, they're still doing it today as Russia 🇷🇺 points to the Iraq War 🇮🇶 to highlight American hypocrisy 🇺🇸, and to justify their own invasion of Ukraine 🇺🇦. 

Like, "These guys invaded Iraq 🇮🇶 like 20 years ago, and it was okay, and yet, when we invade Ukraine 🇺🇦, all of a sudden it's a bad thing to invade other countries?" Yes, it's a very petty and childish argument, like if you did something bad, then I can also do that bad thing too, since you did it and barely faced any real consequences. It's like the "I know you are, but what am I" argument of geopolitics. The Russians 🇷🇺 have stooped that low because they have no real argument or justification for their invasion of Ukraine 🇺🇦 other than it used to be apart of their empire, and now they want it back, and also because they think that the Americans 🇺🇸 are out to get them. 

So, no regime change by an outside force. The Iranian regime 🇮🇷 must fall from an internal uprising by the Iranian people 🇮🇷 themselves. It has to happen organically, and cannot be sponsored or sparked by an outside force. Like, this cannot be like the 1953 coup d'état, that was backed by the CIA and by MI6. It would completely lack legitimacy, and would fuel conspiracy theories that the Western left and Vladimir Putin believe. And I believe in the strength and bravery of the Iranian people 🇮🇷, I believe that they can do it, especially if they have the support from the outside world ever step of the way. I'm not talking like directly sponsoring it or backing like 1953 coup, but just give verbal support and diplomatic support. The Iranian people 🇮🇷 can do the rest.

But, enough about a hypothetical war with Iran 🇮🇷, and why it's a bad idea, the point is that Iran 🇮🇷 hates Israel 🇮🇱, and has made it one of its main foreign policy goals to wipe Israel 🇮🇱 off of the face of the map. Even if Iran 🇮🇷 really doesn't have the power to do that on its own, even with its various proxy militias scattered throughout the region. Which is ironic because Israel 🇮🇱 and Iran 🇮🇷 used to be close allies. Before the Revolution and before Islamic Republic was established, back when the Shah was still in power and the country was a more secular monarchy, Israel 🇮🇱 and Iran 🇮🇷 got along tremendously well. 

Their intelligence services, Mossad and SAVAK worked very closely with each other, and even carried out operations with each other, and the Israelis 🇮🇱 genuinely viewed the Iranians 🇮🇷 as their one true ally in the Middle East, the only ones who they could trust. Keep in mind, the Iranians 🇮🇷 are not Arabs, they don't speak Arabic. They're Persians, they speak Persian. So, it makes sort of sense why the Israelis 🇮🇱 took a liking to the Iranians 🇮🇷, and while they trusted them a bit more than any of their closer Arab neighbors. They did after all share a lot of the same enemies. 

It's hard to believe now given the animosity that these two countries have for each other now, but that's how it was back in the 60s and 70s. They were really close and friendly with each other, and as close to being allies as you could get. But, once the Islamic Revolution ☪️ happened, and the Shah was toppled from power, and Ayatollah Khomeini came to power, relations between the two countries dropped off the face of the Earth 🌎, especially the theocratic government under the new Supreme Leader made hating Israel 🇮🇱 and destroying it official government policy, and part of their national identity. The current Iran 🇮🇷 bases part of its identity on hating the US 🇺🇸 and hating Israel 🇮🇱. 

Plus, Iran 🇮🇷 has all those proxy militia groups scattered throughout the Middle East in places like Iraq 🇮🇶, Syria 🇸🇾, Lebanon 🇱🇧, and Yemen 🇾🇪, the four most unstable countries in the region, at their beck and call to carry out their interests while giving them some sort of plausible deniability. It's sort of like how Russia 🇷🇺 used the Wagner Group in Africa and in Syria 🇸🇾, until you know, Yevgeny Prigozhin decided to wage an insurrection against the Russian government 🇷🇺 just because his pay wasn't very good, and he didn't want to be controlled by the Ministry of Defense, and then got himself blown up in his private jet 🛩️, along with Dimtry Utkin and Valery Chekalov by Putin in retaliation for his betrayal. Putin is among other things a man who hates betrayal and demands absolute loyalty from his subordinates. If you do become disloyal, and betray him in any way, he will kill you, as he did Prigozhin. 

The difference between Wagner and Iran 🇮🇷's various proxies is that Wagner was a mercenary group, a PMC (private military company), whereas Iran 🇮🇷's proxies are basically militias and political parties, a lot of times slammed into one, such as Hezbollah and the Houthis. The Houthis are not a political party in the same way that Hezbollah is, but they are a governing body. They control a significant portion of Yemeni territory 🇾🇪, and govern it as if they were an administrative body. 

Iran 🇮🇷's proxies form a so-called "Axis of Resistance," which many Mid East experts claim is a force to be reckoned with, and can be used to attack Israel 🇮🇱 at Iran 🇮🇷's convenience. Now, I'm pretty skeptical of the Axis of Resistance, and how effective it actually is, and I talk more about it in the third and final piece I wrote about the Israel-Hamas war 🇮🇱, but you get the idea. Iran 🇮🇷 commands a lot of influence within the Middle East, and it uses these proxy militia groups (many of which have been designated as terrorist organizations by the United States 🇺🇸, Israel 🇮🇱, and other Western and Western-aligned countries) to do it. 

So, you can see why so many suspected Iran 🇮🇷 had something to do with the October 7 attack, which some have taken to calling 10/7, but I don't. It just doesn't have the same ring to it as 9/11 or even 7/7, and I can't really see catching it on. Maybe, it might catch on in Israel 🇮🇱 itself, but not outside of Israel 🇮🇱. I imagine most people will still just call it the October 7 attack or just October 7, instead of 10/7. But, as I go into this article, there are some holes in that theory that Iran 🇮🇷 was involved or was the ultimate mastermind behind the attack. 

There is no concrete evidence to support the idea that Iran 🇮🇷 orchestrated the attack or was heavily involved in the planning, training, and preparation for the attack. None has been provided by any of the big intelligence services around the world. Not by the CIA, not by Mossad, not by MI6, not by the DGSE, and not by the BND. So, if none of them are suggesting that Iran 🇮🇷 had anything to do with it, and they've provided no evidence to suggest that it did, then why should anyone else think that it did? 

It also doesn't really make much sense. Hamas is a Sunni organization, while Iran 🇮🇷 is a Shia theocracy. The only marker you can use to tell if a militia or terrorist group is an Iranian proxy 🇮🇷 is if its a Shia organization. If it isn't Shia, then Iran 🇮🇷 probably doesn't have anything to do with it. Keep in mind, Iran 🇮🇷 is very sectarian when it comes to its foreign policy, and choosing which groups to support and not support. They won't just back a group just because they're Islamist ☪️, they have to be Shia as well. If it isn't Shia, and if it's Sunni, then Iran 🇮🇷 probably won't back it. So, there's not a lot linking Hamas and Iran 🇮🇷 together, other than that they both hate Israel 🇮🇱, and Hamas is in the strongest position of any Palestinian group 🇵🇸 to violently oppose Israel 🇮🇱. If these two didn't have a common enemy, then they'd probably be against each other. 

It also kind of robs Hamas of their own agency in all this. If you say, "Oh, well Iran 🇮🇷 did it" and "Hamas is just an Iranian proxy 🇮🇷 doing the bidding of Tehran," then you take away Hamas's own agency and their own culpability in all this. It also shows a genuine lack of imagination, like you can't comprehend that this militia group, this terrorist group, managed to outsmart one of the strongest and most sophisticated militaries in the region and in the world, and kill thousands of their people, and take hundreds of them hostage, despite them being contained in what some have called an "open air prison" and having significantly less access to resources than their opponent. 

So, you just conclude that Iran 🇮🇷 must've done it. Iran 🇮🇷 must've funded them, trained them, equipped them, and told them what to do. It's kind of short-sighted, and kind of racist in a way. Hamas was a lot stronger, smarter, and more sophisticated than anyone, including the Israelis 🇮🇱, had received or were willing to accept, and they were more than capable of planning and coordinating a massive attack like this all on their own. The October 7 attack demonstrated how well trained they were, despite being confined in an isolated area like Gaza. And it's that kind of underestimation that allowed this tragedy to take place.

So, the more plausible, probable, and factual conclusion would be that Hamas mostly carried out this attack on their own (other Palestinian militia groups 🇵🇸 took part in the terrorist attack as well), and that Iran 🇮🇷 really had nothing to do with it. They didn't orchestrate the attacks, they didn't plan them out, they didn't provide any training or weapons, or equipment beyond what they had already provided before, and they didn't order Hamas to attack Israel 🇮🇱, and they weren't ordered to do so by Russia 🇷🇺 as some have suggested. 

Some people have said that Russia 🇷🇺 told Iran 🇮🇷 to tell Hamas to attack Israel 🇮🇱 to distract from the war in Ukraine 🇺🇦. That kind of goes into conspiracy theory territory if you ask me. Hamas had plenty of reason, plenty of motive to want to attack Israel 🇮🇱 and kill and kidnap Israeli Jews 🇮🇱✡️, and none of them had to have come from Tehran. But, you can read more about what I had to say on the material down below.

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(This the flag of the Islamic Republic of Iran 🇮🇷, the current government in Iran 🇮🇷 that has been in power since 1979. I didn't know this until fairly recently, but those symbols or patterns on the green and red bands on the flag are actually takbirs written in Kufic script. I didn't know those symbols actually meant anything, I didn't even know if they were symbols or not. I sort of thought they were just patterns for the longest time. But, they are symbols, and they actually mean something. The takbir is an Islamic phrase ☪️ that's used by many Muslim countries ☪️ and Muslim organizations ☪️. It's basically that Allāhu akbar phrase that a lot of Muslim countries ☪️ put on their flags or on their state symbols, including Iran 🇮🇷, and that a lot of Islamist terrorists ☪️ say when they're carrying out their misdeeds, including Hamas. It means, "God is the greatest.")

Remember how I said in the last post that I found it annoying that some people were linking the current Israeli-Hamas war 🇮🇱 to the Russo-Ukrainian War 🇷🇺🇺🇦? Well, I just watched a video by a YouTube channel called Info Flow, in which this issue was brought up. Info Flow is basically a war channel. They've mainly done videos about the war in Ukraine 🇺🇦, and have interviewed mostly American military personnel 🇺🇸 about the conflict, like retired generals, Ben Hodges and David Petraeus (Petraeus was also the CIA director during the Obama years); those are the go-to guys for Info Flows and other YouTube channels that want insight on battle tactics and strategies from actual generals who've done this stuff for real, in the field. And this is the first video that I know of that Info Flow has done about the Israeli-Hamas war 🇮🇱, and they interviewed Ben Hodges, asking him his thoughts on what's going in Israel 🇮🇱 and the Gaza Strip.

Now, the reason I'm even talking about this is that Ben Hodges suggested this recent war between Israel 🇮🇱 and Hamas is the result of Iran 🇮🇷 wanting to help Russia 🇷🇺 by sparking a conflict in the Middle East to distract from the war in Ukraine 🇺🇦. He was saying that this whole situation in Gaza, and the attacks on Israel 🇮🇱 by Hamas indirectly helps Russia 🇷🇺 strategically by shifting the West's focus from helping Ukraine 🇺🇦 to helping Israel 🇮🇱.

I do think this theory is somewhat plausible. I mean, a lot of people have turned their focus away from Ukraine 🇺🇦 towards Israel 🇮🇱. Like, all the news media has been talking about Israel 🇮🇱 and what's happening in the Gaza Strip, rather than what's going on on the frontlines of Ukraine 🇺🇦 between Russian and Ukrainian forces 🇷🇺🇺🇦.

The most frustrating case for me was The View, how the women ♀︎ on The View talked very little about Ukraine 🇺🇦 to begin with (I think they only spoke about that war right after Russia 🇷🇺 invaded, and very little afterwards), and now they're talking about Israel 🇮🇱 now that Israel 🇮🇱 is at war with Hamas, and trying to use Israel 🇮🇱 to talk about domestic American politics 🇺🇸; how President Biden and the Democrats are doing a lot more to help Israel 🇮🇱 than the Republicans who are chaotic and acting like children.

Even, the White House has seemingly forgotten about Ukraine 🇺🇦 in the last couple of days. Remember, President Biden was supposed to give a speech talking about why military aid to Ukraine 🇺🇦 is important and why it is in America 🇺🇸's best interest to help Ukraine 🇺🇦 defend itself, and defeat Russia 🇷🇺 on the battlefield. And then, this situation in Israel 🇮🇱 and the Gaza Strip happens, and the President ends up giving a speech on Israel 🇮🇱 and Palestine 🇵🇸 instead, and his administration is forced to focus more on helping Israel 🇮🇱 defeat Hamas once and for all.

And as I've said before, Iran 🇮🇷 is supporting Hamas in this war. Hamas is an Iranian-backed group 🇮🇷, just like Hezbollah, who is sort of involved in this war, but not really. Hezbollah has not sent any of their fighters in Israel 🇮🇱, but there is concern that they might, given that Israel 🇮🇱 is focusing all of its military efforts on the Gaza Strip, and might take away forces from the Lebanese border 🇱🇧, giving Hezbollah a perfect opportunity to launch an attack of their own. On the other side, Iran 🇮🇷 has formed closer ties to Russia 🇷🇺, and has been supporting them militarily in their war against Ukraine 🇺🇦 by supplying them their kamikaze drones, the Shahed 131 drones, and there's talk of them sending them rocket artillery and missiles.

Of course, this is not to take away any of Hamas's agency in any of this. They planned this attack, they wanted to it, and they were probably going to do it anyway regardless of whatever Iran 🇮🇷 and Russia 🇷🇺 were doing together. To me, I think the most plausible explanation is that Hamas wanted to attack Israel 🇮🇱 for all the reasons that many analysts have said that they might've wanted to attack, such as reminding the world about the Palestinian question 🇵🇸, wanting to stop the peace talks between Israel 🇮🇱 and Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦, wanting to provoke Israel 🇮🇱 into attacking the Gaza Strip in their usual heavy handed and disproportionate way, resulting in hundreds or thousands of civilian casualties and the Palestinians 🇵🇸 hating the Israelis 🇮🇱 even more than they did before, and also to just kill as many Israeli Jews 🇮🇱✡️ as possible.

And Iran 🇮🇷 shared at least one of those goals, preventing the normalization of relations between Israel 🇮🇱 and Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦, and perhaps even restarting the little cold war that they had with Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦 that China 🇨🇳 helped end because a cold war/proxy conflict between Iran 🇮🇷 and Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦 is bad for business. So, the Iranians 🇮🇷 decided to help Hamas attack Israel 🇮🇱.

And Russia 🇷🇺 looked this unfolding situation, just decided to let it happen and didn't make any attempts to talk Iran 🇮🇷 and Hamas out of doing such drastic and ghastly thing, since it does play into their hands and gives some sort of strategic advantage by distracting the world from the war in Ukraine 🇺🇦 with another war in the Middle East. Besides, even if Russia 🇷🇺 did try to talk Iran 🇮🇷 and Hamas out of doing it, I doubt they would've even listened anyway, since Iran 🇮🇷, Hamas, and other Iranian proxy groups 🇮🇷 have a tendency to do things without Russia 🇷🇺's expressed permission.

So, I think this is a situation of Iran 🇮🇷 and Russia 🇷🇺 opportunistically taking advantage of the war between Israel 🇮🇱 and Hamas because it indirectly benefits them strategically, by boosting Iranian influence 🇮🇷 in the region, preventing normalization talks between Israel 🇮🇱 and Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦, and of course, distracting the world from the war in Ukraine 🇺🇦. I don't think this was a situation where one was telling the other what to do, like I don't think Russia 🇷🇺 went to Iran 🇮🇷, and told them, "Hey, go tell Hamas to attack Israel 🇮🇱," I don't think that's what happened.

Mostly because the Russians 🇷🇺 really aren't that smart and forward thinking; if they were, they wouldn't be struggling in Ukraine 🇺🇦 as much as they are; perhaps, they wouldn't have invaded Ukraine 🇺🇦 at all if they were that smart, strategic, and forward thinking. The Putin regime is an opportunistic one, they take advantage of whether thing's going on in the world that hurts the West in some way and benefits them in some way, rather than instigating anything directly (or indirectly). You know, they aren't the Soviets ☭ as much as they might want to be.

And Iran 🇮🇷 is much the same too, even though they are much more of an instigator than Russia 🇷🇺 is. But, in this case, they weren't really an instigator and more of an opportunist, taking advantage of something that Hamas was planning to, and did without their direct input. To be clear, there's no evidence at this time to suggest that Iran 🇮🇷 was directly involved in the Hamas attacks last weekend, like there's no evidence at this time to suggest they directly helped orchestrate or coordinate the attacks.

As for why the West has seemingly shifted its focus away from Ukraine 🇺🇦 and more towards Israel 🇮🇱, I do think it's a natural organic process. Obviously, the war in Israel 🇮🇱 and Gaza is the current big topic, the current big geopolitical and foreign policy issue of October, and the nature of the 24 hour news cycle means that all these news outlets want to cover the Israeli-Hamas war 🇮🇱 while it's still hot and is still on everybody's minds.

And also, the war in Israel 🇮🇱 and Gaza is a lot more dynamic, and ever-changing, whereas the war in Ukraine 🇺🇦 is a much slower, less dynamic and more attritional fight where very little really changes; the frontlines have barely shifted, and there hasn't been any major territorial changes since the Kherson offensive; it's just been bit-by-bit, town-by-town, village-by-village. So, it's a lot more interesting to talk about than the war in Ukraine 🇺🇦, at least from the perspective of news anchors, news reporters, and news pundits. And let's face it, there are a lot more Jews ✡️, and Israeli Jews 🇮🇱✡️ in particular, in America 🇺🇸 than there are Ukrainians 🇺🇦.

That makes sense since the war in Israel 🇮🇱 is a new conflict that just barely started a few days ago, while the war in Ukraine 🇺🇦 has been dragging on for 2 years now (8 years if you count the invasion of Crimea and the war in Donbas from 2014 to 2022). And Israel 🇮🇱 has a lot more access to modern Western military equipment than Ukraine 🇺🇦 does, like the US 🇺🇸 has been giving military aid to Israel 🇮🇱 for decades now, starting probably around the time of the Six-Day War and the Yom Kippur War when Israel 🇮🇱 proved itself as a true military powerhouse.

They've supplied them tanks, ammunition, anti-aircraft and anti-missile systems (the so-called "Iron Dome"), and of course, aircraft, including the latest and meanest stealth fighter and attack aircraft in the US 🇺🇸, the F-35 Lightning II; the most exported stealth fighter/attack aircraft in the world, and the most abundant and exported American fighter/attack aircraft 🇺🇸 in history; there are more F-35s in the world than there are F/A-18s, F-16s, F-15s, A-10s, and F-22s; the US 🇺🇸 hasn't even exported any F-22s to any other country, nor do they even have that many.

All the things that Ukraine 🇺🇦 has been asking for, and needs in its counteroffensive against Russia 🇷🇺, the US 🇺🇸 has already been giving Israel 🇮🇱 to decades now, even things that are off the table for Ukraine 🇺🇦 like F-35s; the only fighter jet that's been considered for Ukraine 🇺🇦 are F-16s. So, obviously, the war in Israel 🇮🇱 is progressing a lot faster and changing day-by-day a lot more than the war in Ukraine 🇺🇦.

As for the Biden administration, you got to keep in mind, that they've been focused on helping Ukraine 🇺🇦 all this time. That's been their main foreign policy focus for the past 2 years. They've trying to make sure that military aid keeps getting sent to Ukraine 🇺🇦,  and that the Congress doesn't get cold feet about it, and making sure that Ukraine 🇺🇦 gets the kinds of weapons and equipment it truly needs to succeed in its defensive and offensive operations.

They've also trying to make sure our European allies 🇪🇺 stay united, and don't lose interest in Ukraine 🇺🇦, and lose sight of why helping Ukraine 🇺🇦 is important, and pull their weight in supplying Ukraine 🇺🇦 with their own weapons and equipment, as well as providing financial aid 💶 to Ukraine 🇺🇦 and keeping a tight grip on the sanctions against Russia 🇷🇺. And of course, they've also been trying to manage escalation during this war, and making sure Russia 🇷🇺 doesn't launch an attack on NATO territory, whether that be conventional or nuclear ☢️, or do something drastic and heinous like use nuclear weapons ☢️ on Ukraine 🇺🇦 itself.

The most recent hurdle they've trying to overcome is the deadlock in the House, trying to get a new aid package for Ukraine 🇺🇦 approved, but preventing a government shutdown and the ouster of Speaker Kevin McCarthy has stood in the way of this. And then now, this attack on Israel 🇮🇱 by Hamas happens, and now they have to also worry about what's happening in the Middle East rather than just what's happening in Europe.

They got to issue statements of condemnation for Hamas's actions, issue statements of support for Israel 🇮🇱, and also figure out a way to balance military aid for Israel 🇮🇱 and military aid for Ukraine 🇺🇦. I think they can do it, some people are worried that the US 🇺🇸 can't support two wars, but I think they can; supplying weapons and equipment to another country is a lot easier than actually putting boots on the ground, and being involved in the fight yourself. But, clearly, Biden has a lot more on his plate now than he did just a week ago when the only immediate foreign policy concern he had to worry about was Ukraine 🇺🇦.

Now, I am concerned that people might lose interest in Ukraine 🇺🇦, and may just forget about it just because of what's happening in Israel 🇮🇱 and Gaza. The risk of that happening is there, I mean, the Obama administration was too distracted by the war against ISIS and the Syrian Civil War 🇸🇾 to really pay much attention to the war in Donbas. We cannot make the same mistake twice, especially since the stakes are so much higher now than they were back then.

But I am confident that the Biden administration at least, won't forsake Ukraine 🇺🇦 and just abandon them in favor of Israel 🇮🇱. I do think they'll work this out, and figure out a way to balance both, since both are in America 🇺🇸's best interests. If we fail in one, then we might very well fail in the other, and our credibility will be negatively impacted, and the world will be in a much more dangerous position than it will be if we support Ukraine 🇺🇦 AND Israel 🇮🇱.

—

Link to video by Info Flow: 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Z9knbaf2O0

 

— 

Update (Saturday October 14, 2023):

🇷🇺

I only talked briefly behind Russia 🇷🇺's silence or complicity in the Israel-Hamas war 🇮🇱, and how Russia 🇷🇺 benefits from the war between Israel 🇮🇱 and Hamas, but I feel I should probably elaborate more on this given the recent developments. Israel 🇮🇱 has begun its counterattack in the past few days, starting with airstrikes against Gaza, hitting a lot of civilian targets that Hamas have using as bases of attack or safe havens, and besieging the entire territory, cutting off food 🌾, water 💦, and electricity ⚡️ to the territory, conducting commando raids into Gaza, and preparing for a full-scale ground invasion of Gaza.

Now, concerns are rising about the inevitable humanitarian crisis that will result from Israel 🇮🇱's response to the Hamas attacks, their counteroffensive actions against Hamas; especially among international organizations like the UN 🇺🇳 and human rights organizations like Human Rights Watch, among many others. There are concerns that Palestinian civilians 🇵🇸 will suffer and will be harmed, not just from having their food 🌾 and water 💦 supply and electricity ⚡️ being cut off, but also from being killed by Israeli strikes 🇮🇱 and even by Israeli ground attacks 🇮🇱 against Hamas.

Keep in mind, the Palestinian civilians 🇵🇸 in Gaza already lacked access to food 🌾 and drinking water 💦 before the war and before the siege. The siege is just exasperating the issue, and making it even worse. Israel 🇮🇱 has already dropped over 6,000 bombs on Gaza within the first week of this war, and Palestinian civilian casualties 🇵🇸 have sky rocketed as a result.

Civilians will inevitably be caught in the crossfire of this brutal fighting, and civilian casualties will exceed military casualties on both sides. Indeed, whenever violence has flared up, and wars have started between Israel 🇮🇱 and Palestinian militant groups 🇵🇸, it's always been the civilians will suffer the most. Not just Palestinian civilians 🇵🇸, but also Israeli civilians 🇮🇱 as well.

I mean, it was an overt and direct attack on civilians that sparked this current war in the first place. Hamas purposefully targeted civilians and killed them in the most gruesome and monstrous ways that Israel 🇮🇱 would be provoked into taking as violent of action as possible. Hamas is well aware that Israel 🇮🇱's military responses to things like this are usually pretty heavy handed and relatively disproportionate compared to what was dealt to them. They always end up killing more Palestinians 🇵🇸 than these Palestinian militant groups 🇵🇸 killed Israelis 🇮🇱. And that trend will likely continue here in this current war. In fact, it could be strongly argued that Israel 🇮🇱's extremely violent and disproportionate response was one of the main goals of Hamas's attacks.

They wanted to provoke Israel 🇮🇱 into attacking Gaza because Israel 🇮🇱 is incapable of restraint or measured responses, especially when they're as outraged and emotionally charged as they are right now. And when Israel 🇮🇱 attacks Palestinian territory 🇵🇸 like Gaza or the West Bank, then ends up destroying civilian infrastructure and killing a lot of civilians. That's why Hamas likes to operate in civilian buildings like apartment buildings or hospitals, to put Israel 🇮🇱 in a situation where they have to destroy that building, even if there are civilians in there. Israel 🇮🇱 is put in a situation where they have to commit war crimes essentially.

Of course, this doesn't excuse Israel 🇮🇱's actions or conduct, like besieging Gaza and cutting supplies of food 🌾, water 💦, and electricity ⚡️, and then just giving the citizens of Gaza empty warning to leave the territory when they don't have capability to is wrong, and I think it should be condemned, and I don't want my government, the US 🇺🇸 to be complicit in atrocities like that.

I think we're already seeing signs that the US 🇺🇸 and other pro-Israel 🇮🇱 countries like the UK 🇬🇧, Canada 🇨🇦, France 🇫🇷, and Germany 🇩🇪 to name but a few, may try to sort of pressure Israel 🇮🇱 into showing some restraint, and limiting civilian casualties. It probably won't work, I mean this is Netanyahu's Israel 🇮🇱 we're talking about here. They're not going to show restraint or really put any real effort to limiting civilian casualties other than these token gestures of dropping leaflets and issuing warnings to Gazans to leave, without considering the fact that most Gazans can't leave, even if they want to.

And a lot of Gazans don't really want to leave Gaza because they're worried that if they do leave Gaza, and flee into the Sinai Peninsula in Egypt 🇪🇬, then they won't be able to return because Israel 🇮🇱 will just take over Gaza and absorb into their territory with the help of Jewish settlements ✡️, now the Palestinians 🇵🇸 are no longer there. But, even just moving south of the territory is potentially risky because there's no guarantee that humanitarian aid will get in, or that Israel 🇮🇱 won't bomb any targets in the south; and they have been bombing the south, despite telling Palestinian civilians 🇵🇸 to evacuate there. So, the Palestinians 🇵🇸 in Gaza really are trapped, and there's little escape for them.

So, with Israel 🇮🇱 committing war crimes and violating international law in its response to Hamas, they will look like the bad guy, just as bad, if not even worse than Hamas. It allows pro-Palestinian groups 🇵🇸 and pro-Palestinian individuals 🇵🇸 to excuse or downplay Hamas's actions, and it causes anti-Israel 🚫🇮🇱 sentiment around the world to grow; and thus preventing, or delaying normalization talks with Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦; that is another big strategic goal of Hamas, they don't want Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦 to normalize relations with Israel 🇮🇱; they don't want the Arab states in the Middle East to turn against them by forming closer ties with Israel 🇮🇱, and forget or ignore the Palestinian issue 🇵🇸, and they also don't want the Arab states to form a more united coalition or alliance with Israel 🇮🇱 in opposition to their main benefactor, Iran 🇮🇷, which is the common enemy of both Israel 🇮🇱 and Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦, despite those détente talks with Iran 🇮🇷 brokered by China 🇨🇳.

It also makes the US 🇺🇸 and its allies look complicit in war crimes and atrocities and flagrant violations of international law and human rights, and makes them look like hypocrites for criticizing Russia 🇷🇺 for committing war crimes and violating international law and human rights, but not Israel 🇮🇱; you know, rule for me, but not for thee.

That brings me to how Russia 🇷🇺 benefits from all this. Not only does this whole situation, this war distract from Ukraine 🇺🇦, which helps Russia 🇷🇺, but it also allows Russia 🇷🇺 to look like a good guy, or at the very least, the lesser of two evils, especially in the eyes of the Global South, which matters a lot. The Global North's opinions don't entirely apply here because we already know what their opinion will be. It's the Global South's opinion that is more malleable and matters a lot more in the grander scheme of things, just for the simple reason that the there are way more Global South countries than there are Global North countries.

And as you might expect, a lot of Global South countries, especially those of a Muslim ☪️ or Arab persuasion, side more with Palestine 🇵🇸 on most issues than they do Israel 🇮🇱 because a lot of them view Israel 🇮🇱 as a settler colonialist power (which it definitely is) and view Palestine 🇵🇸 as an anti-imperialist power trying to gain its independence. Though to be perfectly clear, Palestine 🇵🇸 is not technically a state yet.

It's more like a proto-state, where there is a Palestinian Authority 🇵🇸 in the West Bank, but it's more of a law enforcement entity than an actual government; and Gaza was of course was de facto ruled by Hamas; they took control of Gaza after they won an election in 2007, and have ruled the territory with an iron fist ever since. So, a Palestinian state 🇵🇸 doesn't really exist at this time, and the Palestinian Territories 🇵🇸 are not unified under one leadership.

Russia 🇷🇺 definitely wants to have influence on these countries and the Global South as a whole because it knows it will never have any lasting influence on the Global North because their influence in the Global North can always be reversed; whereas it can't as easily be reversed in the Global South.

So, when Israel 🇮🇱 targets and destroys civilian infrastructure, and commits war crimes, with the complicity of the West, it definitely benefits Russia 🇷🇺 politically. Putin gets to pretend be a humanitarian, and the West's credibility and its commitment to human rights and rule of law is severely undermined and called into question. We've already seen the beginnings of this since Putin did issue a statement recently that Israel 🇮🇱's siege and encirclement over Gaza is unacceptable, and will cause a humanitarian crisis.

I know, that's rich coming from a guy like Putin, who started an unprovoked war of aggression against one of his neighbors, just because he wanted to maintain Russian influence 🇷🇺 within the post-Soviet ☭ space and reconstitute Russia 🇷🇺's empire by annexing territory that used to be apart of Russia 🇷🇺 (and isn't already apart of NATO); plus, he's costing Russia 🇷🇺's long-standing friendship or partnership with Israel 🇮🇱 that began in earnest after the fall of the Soviet Union ☭, and continued up until the present day; but hey, if sacrificing Russia 🇷🇺's friendly relationship with Israel 🇮🇱 means undermining Ukraine 🇺🇦 and the West, then so be it, in Putin's eyes, it's worth risking losing that friendship; he's probably a bit of antisemite himself, I would not be all that surprised if he was.

But, like I said, he's only pretending to be a humanitarian and champion of human rights, even though we all know he isn't, just to win brownie points with the Palestinian movement 🇵🇸 and the wider Global South. And the Global South buys into this narrative that the Kremlin and their propagandists are selling because from their perspective, the West are being hypocrites.

You know, they're criticizing Russia 🇷🇺 for committing atrocities and violating international law in Ukraine 🇺🇦, yet they're tolerant and okay with Israel 🇮🇱 committing atrocities and violating international law in Gaza. I don't agree with that point-of-view, I don't think that's a correct perspective, but it is a real perspective within the so-called Global South, especially countries in Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, Central Asia, and Southeast Asia where opinions on the West tend to vary, and lean more towards the negative side.

That is one way that the war between Israel 🇮🇱 and Hamas benefits Russia 🇷🇺 and undermines Ukraine 🇺🇦, besides the obvious way in that it distracts from Ukraine 🇺🇦; much like how the Syrian Civil War 🇸🇾 and the war against ISIS distracted from the war in Donbas. And there really isn't an easy way to counter this without angering and alienating the Israelis 🇮🇱, and angering the wider Jewish diaspora ✡️. But, it has to be countered if we want Ukraine 🇺🇦 to succeed and Russia 🇷🇺 to fail. This is quite the pickle the US 🇺🇸 and its allies find themselves in.

—

Update (Friday October 27, 2023):

🇺🇸🇺🇦🇮🇱

In the last update, I said that the US 🇺🇸 and allies were in a bit of a pickle about how to support Israel 🇮🇱 without forgetting about Ukraine 🇺🇦, and that is indeed true, but I do think it can be overcome. We can support Ukraine 🇺🇦 and support Israel 🇮🇱 at the same time, we don't need to choose over the other, or prioritize one over the other, we're the US 🇺🇸 for crying out loud. We're a superpower, the only true superpower in the world, and we need to start thinking and acting like one again.

Luckily, it seems that the Biden administration is moving in that direction, by addressing the American people 🇺🇸, emphasizing the importance of supporting Ukraine 🇺🇦 and Israel 🇮🇱, and the dire threats that both countries face, and by placing Ukraine and Israel aid packages 🇺🇦🇮🇱 together, as a way of getting the dysfunctional and frustrating Republican Party to pass an aid package to Ukraine 🇺🇦 and an aid package to Israel 🇮🇱 in the House of Representatives.

The Republicans are generally more supportive of military aid to Israel 🇮🇱 than they are of military aid to Ukraine 🇺🇦; although there are Republicans who do support Ukraine 🇺🇦, and want to keep sending military aid to Ukraine 🇺🇦. So by linking them together, the Biden administration hopes that the Republicans will see that supporting Ukraine 🇺🇦 is just as important as supporting Israel 🇮🇱 at this time, and will approve the multibillion dollar aid packages 💵 for both.