How Did the Republic of China End Up on an Island 🇹🇼?
Foreword:
This was originally written on Wednesday September 27, 2023. I'm finally posting the next entry on my series on China and Taiwan 🇨🇳🇹🇼. This one is a bit of a continuation of the conversation that I had started in the previous one, which you can go read here. It talked about the confusing legal status of Taiwan 🇹🇼, how it's not recognized as a legitimate sovereign country by the majority of the international community, and doesn't have a seat in the UN 🇺🇳, because it's official name is the Republic of China, and there can only be one nation state in the China seat, and it's currently occupied by the People's Republic of China 🇨🇳. And yet, despite all that, Taiwan 🇹🇼 is functionally an independent country. It has its own government separate from China 🇨🇳, it has its own laws, it has its own military, has its own currency, it has its own passports, it has everything that an independent sovereign country would have, and yet it isn't recognized as such.
All because it's official name is the Republic of China, and because of the asinine One China Policy, it can't be recognized as its own country separate from China 🇨🇳 even though it clearly is. It's also because of the pressure campaign that China 🇨🇳 has been putting on countries to recognize them instead of Taiwan 🇹🇼, and to recognize Taiwan 🇹🇼 as a province of China 🇨🇳. This has had mixed results because as stated before, most countries in the world don't recognize Taiwan 🇹🇼 at all, and instead recognize only China 🇨🇳. So, China 🇨🇳 already effectively has what it wants from the rest of the world since very few countries recognize Taiwan 🇹🇼 as a country, and has some version of a One China Policy as stupid as it is. So, why are they still trying to pressure countries to recognizing them over Taiwan 🇹🇼? I don't know. Ask them, not that they would even answer you.
But, while most countries in the world recognize China 🇨🇳 and not Taiwan 🇹🇼, they do not recognize it as a renegade province of China 🇨🇳, and they likely never will. So, China 🇨🇳 will get its way on that front because most of the world doesn't necessarily see Taiwan 🇹🇼 as country for legal reasons, they do not see it as an inalienable part of China 🇨🇳 for common sense reasons. Even if China 🇨🇳 were to invade and successfully take Taiwan 🇹🇼 through military force, that would still likely be the case. It would just be a disputed territory. Just like Crimea and the Donbas is in Ukraine 🇺🇦.
Even though Russia 🇷🇺 officially annexed those territories, the majority of the world doesn't recognize them as Russian territory 🇷🇺 and still recognize them as Ukrainian territory 🇺🇦, and they are thus, disputed territories. Especially since Russia 🇷🇺 doesn't even control all of the territories that they claim to control. They currently control the entire Crimea, but they do not control the entire Donbas. They only control a small percentage of it, and the majority of it is still in Ukrainian hands 🇺🇦.
That's what Russia 🇷🇺's objective in the war has become: to take the rest of the Donbas region, and have full control over all the Ukrainian territory 🇺🇦 that they've annexed. They have no hope of taking Kyiv, so they've limited their goal to just trying to take the Donbas. And I don't even think the Russians 🇷🇺 will succeed at that. Like a lot of pro-Ukrainian people 🇺🇦, I'm convinced that Russia 🇷🇺 will lose the war in the end. The only way that they will actually win is if Donald Trump gets re-elected (god forbid 😖) because he's pretty much promised to hand over Ukraine 🇺🇦 to Russia 🇷🇺, since Vladimir Putin is pretty much in his pockets. Trump is beholden to Putin, and will do anything he can to benefit Putin. That's why he must lose this election, but that's an aside.
I don't think under any scenario, the world would just recognize China 🇨🇳's control over Taiwan 🇹🇼 or any of the smaller islands that they control if they managed to succeed, which I don't even think they would. I don't think the world would just reward China 🇨🇳's aggression like that, or at least I hope not. I mean, to this day, after three years, the world still doesn't recognize the Taliban's control over Afghanistan 🇦🇫. Even the flag emoji for Afghanistan 🇦🇫 hasn't been changed to the Taliban flag. It's still the same black, red, and green flag.
But, despite China 🇨🇳 not really convincing any country to recognize Taiwan 🇹🇼 as a province, they have made some headway in the diplomatic realm. They've managed to convince at least a couple of the small number of countries that do recognize Taiwan 🇹🇼 as an independent country. Nauru 🇳🇷 was the latest country to drop its recognition of Taiwan 🇹🇼 in favor of recognizing China 🇨🇳, and before that, Honduras 🇭🇳 dropped its recognition of Taiwan 🇹🇼 in favor of China 🇨🇳, and before that, El Salvador 🇸🇻 did the same. So, China 🇨🇳 has managed to isolate Taiwan 🇹🇼 diplomatically somewhat, but I do not think they will ultimately succeed in their goal of gaining full control over Taiwan 🇹🇼. Or at least, I hope not.
But, this post will go beyond Taiwan 🇹🇼's confusing and frustrating legal status, and talk about the history of Taiwan 🇹🇼, or to be more precise, the history of the Republic of China 🇹🇼. This delves into how this particular government started on the mainland, how it lost its spot on the mainland, and how it ended up on and island. I also talk a little bit about how Chiang Kai-shek's rule, and how he became a dictator that ruled over Taiwan 🇹🇼 until his death in 1975. And then Taiwan 🇹🇼 democratized in the decades after, and the Taiwanese people 🇹🇼 of today are left to grapple with the legacy of Chiang Kai-shek.
He may have been the founder of the nation, but he was still a dictator who claimed the lives of thousands or millions of people, and he imposed some pretty draconian and authoritarian laws. He may not have been as bad or killed as many people as Mao Zedong, but he still a pretty bad guy. And that's what the people of Taiwan 🇹🇼 kind of have to grapple with. They have to come to terms with the fact that Chiang helped found their nation, the modern state of Taiwan 🇹🇼, and lead it to become a pretty rich and prosperous nation, and yet, he was a brutal autocrat who killed and jailed dissents, restricted people's freedoms, and held onto power until he died. It's a lot like how we Americans 🇺🇸 have to come to terms with, and grapple with the founding father's impossible to ignore flaws, like some of them (or all of them) being slave owners, and perpetrating genocide against indigenous people.
I get into that, and I get into how Taiwan 🇹🇼's democratization ultimately helped it in the long run, in terms of gaining international support in the event of a conflict with China 🇨🇳. Especially, when you compare to another anti-communist country in Asia that the US 🇺🇸 and its allies supported during the Cold War, South Vietnam. South Vietnam never became a democracy throughout its entire short existence, and thus failed to gain any support or sympathy from the international community outside of the US 🇺🇸 and its small group of allies that voluntarily joined the Vietnam War 🇻🇳.
Even within the US 🇺🇸 and those other countries that were fighting on South Vietnam's side in the war, the people of those countries didn't support South Vietnam at all. Just their governments did. Instead, they saw it as nothing more than an American puppet state 🇺🇸 and a tool of American imperialism 🇺🇸 that needed to be destroyed. And that was a big reason why South Vietnam ultimately lost the war, and why it was absorbed by North Vietnam 🇻🇳.
I even talk about some of the political parties and political coalitions inside Taiwan 🇹🇼, and how their stances on China 🇨🇳 and Taiwan 🇹🇼's political status differ. This will be especially interesting in light of the recent Taiwanese presidential election 🇹🇼, which happened earlier this year, and was won by the DPP's candidate, Lai Ching-te AKA William Lai. The DPP, or Democratic Progressive Party, is part of the Pan Green Coalition, and they are most associated with the concept of Taiwanese independence 🇹🇼.
Although, the DPP don't consider themselves to be a pro-independence party necessarily, as they argue that Taiwan 🇹🇼 already is independent and thus doesn't need to "become independent," whatever that means. They're really just advocates for the status quo than anything else, but the KMT and other Pan Blue parties lie about the DPP and try to present them as pro-independence. The DPP also supports democracy and the rule of law, and support more progressive policies as their name would suggest such as LGBTQ+ rights 🏳️🌈, which the KMT and many other Pan Blue parties do not as they lean more conservative.
There's also the centrist party, the TPP, or Taiwan People's Party, which did have a candidate in this year's election, Ko Wen-je who lost of course. I think a big reason why Ko Wen-je lost was because he was a third party candidate, and similar to the US 🇺🇸, third party candidates don't do well in elections. Instead, they tend to function as election spoilers, taking votes from one candidate or another. But, I think it goes beyond that.
I think Taiwanese voters 🇹🇼 voted against Ko Wen-je because he wasn't exactly clear on his China policy 🇨🇳, and he wasn't clear on what he thought Taiwan 🇹🇼's political status is or what it should be beyond just preserving the status quo. They saw him as flip-flopper and as a bit of a fence sitter, not really having any strong opinions or convictions one way or another. A big weakness of "enlightened centrists." So, they voted for William Lai instead because he was clear about what he wanted, and what he would deliver as president, and they knew that he would preserve the status quo, and not cozy to China 🇨🇳 like Hou Yu-ih would. The Taiwanese people 🇹🇼 didn't know or trust Ko Wen-je enough to vote him in because they didn't know for sure if he wouldn't just take a similar approach to China 🇨🇳 that Hou Yu-ih would.
I also wrote an update where I talked about this insane contingency plan that Taiwan 🇹🇼 in the case that China 🇨🇳 did invade, and they were unable to prevent the Chinese 🇨🇳 from storming the beaches, and making landfall on the island itself. It would be a last resort out of pure desperation to hurt China 🇨🇳 in a big way, and stunt their military advance, and prevent them from taking Taipei short of dropping a nuke ☢️ on one of the cities. Taiwan 🇹🇼 doesn't have nukes ☢️ of their own, and the US 🇺🇸 would be very unlikely to use nukes ☢️ in the event of a war with China 🇨🇳 over Taiwan 🇹🇼.
So, this would be Taiwan 🇹🇼's best move, even if it is crazy and would be somewhat cruel. But hey, when you're dealing with a cruel regime, sometimes you have to deal some cruelty back at them. This is not something that Taiwan 🇹🇼 would take lightly, and I'm sure the decision to implement this plan would weigh heavily on the shoulders of the Taiwanese civilian and military leadership 🇹🇼. But, they'd be fighting for their freedom, and for their survival. It would be all or nothing for them. If China 🇨🇳 succeeds in taking the island, then it's all over for them. The Taiwanese 🇹🇼 would have nothing left after that. The only thing they'd be able to do from then on is an insurgency that likely wouldn't really lead to anything unless that insurgency received outside assistance, which there's no guarantee that it would. So, in order to prevent that outcome, the Taiwanese 🇹🇼 would do everything they can, including this. You'll have to read the update to find out what it is.
Before I finally let you read the text, I would like to address some of the geopolitical news topics that have been going on recently. Starting with the war in Gaza. There hasn't actually been a lot of news coming out of the war in Gaza in recent weeks. It's funny because when the war first broke out, it pushed the war in Ukraine 🇺🇦 out of the headlines, as every news site started focusing entirely on Gaza and not at all on Ukraine 🇺🇦.
The amount of news we were getting about Ukraine 🇺🇦 from western news outlets dwindled once Hamas attacked Israel 🇮🇱, and Israel 🇮🇱 retaliated by invading Gaza, leveling the place with ceaseless bombardment, and engaging in collective punishment of the Palestinians 🇵🇸 by restricting the amount of humanitarian aid that comes into Gaza, attacking aid workers, and even just killing Palestinian civilians 🇵🇸 by blowing them up with drones. The humanitarian crisis is still pretty bad, the Palestinians 🇵🇸 are still starving, and there still is no ceasefire.
But now, the war in Gaza has kind of disappeared from the headlines. Now we hardly hear about the war in Gaza from the mainstream media. This is in complete contrast a month ago, when the war still dominated the news cycle, especially when those protests 🪧 broke out on college campuses all over the country, including in my own state, New Mexico. The thing that the mainstream media is focusing now on are domestic issues. They're focusing on the recent debate and how badly President Joe Biden performed in it, they're focusing on how the Democrats are stupidly panicking and clutching their pearls and dancing around the idea of replacing Biden on the ticket. An idea that's based purely in fantasy and will never happen.
They're also focused on the Supreme Court's disastrous decisions to overturn Chevron USA, Inc. v. Natural Resources Defense Council, Inc. AKA just Chevron, giving corporations carte blanche to just pollute the environment as they please without facing any repercussions, and to grant presidents total immunity. A decision that is clearly meant to benefit Trump, and no body else. I mean, they didn't come to that decision to grant Biden total immunity. There's only one man ♂︎ that they want to be a dictator in this country, and that's Trump. That's why they're gearing this country up to be a dictatorship should Trump get back into the White House. Another reason why Biden needs to win this November to prevent this horrible outcome.
So, the media's focused on that because America 🇺🇸 is currently in its "all is lost" moment after a disappointing Biden debate performance, and Supreme Court decisions that seem bent on turning this country into a dystopian nightmare. The most frustrating thing for about all of this is the people calling for Biden to be replaced as the Democratic presidential nominee. It's not going to happen! Biden's our guy, he's our only chance at defeating Trump this November, and replacing him this late into the process would be a huge mistake that would guarantee that we lose this election to Donald Trump.
I don't at all agree with people who suggest that if Biden stays in the election, he'll lose, like former Bush advisor, Mark McKinnon. That he is something he actually said on MSNBC, that if Biden runs, he'll lose. I mean, he is the co-founder of No Labels, an organization that is just as much of a threat to democracy as Trump and the Supreme Court are, so he isn't that trustworthy. His opinion isn't worth squat. So, all you people upset at Biden's debate performance, and calling for him to drop out, stop it 😡! Suck it up, and rally behind him because there is no alternative. We are getting no one else. Trump and Biden are our options, and if you're someone who values democracy, rule of law, reproductive health, LGBTQ+ rights 🏳️🌈, climate change policy, etc., then the choice should be blatantly obvious.
So, the news media right now isn't really focused on what's going on overseas, in these conflicts abroad. That means we aren't getting news about the civil wars in Sudan 🇸🇩 and Myanmar 🇲🇲, although the news media really wasn't covering those conflicts anyway. The mainstream media has almost completely ignored the wars in Sudan 🇸🇩 and Myanmar 🇲🇲, even though they're just as bad as the wars in Gaza and Ukraine 🇺🇦.
Like, the war in Sudan 🇸🇩 has caused a humanitarian crisis that is just as bad as the one in Gaza, in fact it's arguably worse since hardly any aid is getting to Sudan 🇸🇩. Like, as bad as the aid situation in Gaza is, isn't anywhere close to how bad it is in Sudan 🇸🇩. Virtually none is getting in, and people are starving to death, and also dying of thirst due to the lack of clean drinking water 💦. And yet, it hasn't gotten anywhere near the coverage that it should, and because of that most Americans 🇺🇸 have no idea what's happening in Sudan 🇸🇩.
No one's going out there and protesting 🪧, demanding that the US government 🇺🇸 sent humanitarian aid to Sudan 🇸🇩, or demanding that the UN 🇺🇳 do more about it. And the war itself is no where close to being resolved. There is no end in sight. There is at least better news coming out of Myanmar 🇲🇲 even if the western news media isn't covering it that much, and that's that the junta is losing the war, and the rebels are winning, at least so far. The rebels have taken town after town, and the junta continues to lose ground every day, and they're failing to attract new recruits since no one in Myanmar 🇲🇲 actually supports the junta at this point.
Since I did mention Afghanistan 🇦🇫 and the Taliban earlier, I should mention that they've been in the news recently. The UN 🇺🇳 received a lot of backlash a couple weeks ago over their decision to grant the Taliban's request to exclude Afghan women 🇦🇫♀︎ from an upcoming UN conference 🇺🇳 that they are set to take part in. Human rights groups and former Afghan politicians 🇦🇫 from the previous government saw this move by the UN 🇺🇳 as a betrayal because of the horrible treatment that women ♀︎ have faced under the new Taliban regime.
Women ♀︎ have no rights in that country whatsoever. They're not even treated as second class citizens, they're treated even lower than that. And they've faced harsh punishment by the Taliban for not following their strict orders, including public floggings and stonings, as in throwing rocks at women ♀︎ until they're severely injured or killed. And a lot of human rights groups, Afghan activists 🇦🇫, and former Afghan politicians 🇦🇫 feel that by agreeing to exclude women ♀︎ from this upcoming conference, the UN 🇺🇳 is effectively legitimizing the Taliban's abuse towards women ♀︎, and even excusing it and ignoring it.
The UN 🇺🇳 by granting the Taliban's request to exclude women ♀︎, they are essentially looking the other way, and they're rewarding the Taliban for their tyrannical and misogynistic behavior. They're also hurting their own credibility as champions of women's rights ♀︎ and women ♀︎'s meaningful participation in society and in government. And this is from the same organization that goes on and on about the human rights abuses committed by Israel 🇮🇱 against the Palestinians 🇵🇸 inside Gaza, and yet they're willing to appease a government that's guilty of pretty much every human rights abuse you can think of. 😒
The UN 🇺🇳 is kind of a joke right now, they're a bunch of hypocrites, and no body really takes them seriously anymore. I wish that weren't the case because I think we need an organization like the UN 🇺🇳. We need an organization where countries from around the world can meet and talk to each other, where people in need of humanitarian assistance can get that assistance, and where countries can held accountable for their horrible actions. Whether it's starting an illegal undeclared war, or committing a genocide or ethnic cleansing, or just committing human rights abuses against their own populations.
But, the UN 🇺🇳 has lost its way, and is not doing its job properly, and is not applying the same rules and standards to everybody. And also the UN Security Council 🇺🇳 has been corrupted by both Russia 🇷🇺 and China 🇨🇳, who are abusing their veto powers to support other authoritarian regimes, undermine democracy, and allow wars to continue without the instigator of these wars being punished. They're essentially allowing governments or militia groups or terrorists to get away with starting wars of aggression. They're allowing these governments to get away with human rights abuses, war crimes, and even genocide and ethnic cleansing.
In my opinion, giving how much the veto power has been abused by nearly all permanent members of the UN Security Council 🇺🇳, I don't think they should be any permanent member anymore. The permanent membership is an antiquated idea, and it doesn't work anymore. It only benefits bad faith actors, who use their veto power to prevent meaningful action from being taken when it comes to conflict or human rights. So, the UN 🇺🇳 giving into the Taliban's demands to exclude women ♀︎ from an upcoming conference which they invited them to, is just another blow to their own credibility and legitimacy. You don't get to complain about Israel 🇮🇱 committing war crimes and genocide against Palestinians 🇵🇸, and then ignore the Taliban committing human rights abuses against women ♀︎ in their own country, and essentially establishing a gender apartheid that would make Iran 🇮🇷's look lenient by comparison. Just so you can get them to negotiating table 😠?! Shame on you, UN 🇺🇳, shame on you.
Probably the biggest geopolitical news that happened last month in June was the meeting between Putin and Kim Jong-un. This was the first time that Putin had visited Pyongyang in many years, not since 2018 if I'm not mistaken. Every other time Putin and Kim have met, Kim has gone to Russia 🇷🇺 using his train 🚂, as he did last year when he traveled through the Trans Siberian Railroad to meet with Putin in Vladivostok and Moscow. But now, it's Putin going to North Korea 🇰🇵. What made this visit so notable was that Putin and Kim signed a mutual defense pact with each other, which meant that Russia 🇷🇺 would now come to the defense of North Korea 🇰🇵 should North Korea 🇰🇵 find itself involved in a military conflict, most likely with South Korea 🇰🇷.
This development immediately made experts of Russia 🇷🇺 and North Korea 🇰🇵 extremely nervous because they didn't really know, and still don't know what it actually means for the region and for the war in Ukraine 🇺🇦. They're worried that Russia 🇷🇺 will start supplying North Korea 🇰🇵 advanced technology for their nuclear program ☢️ and their space program, and that they'll come to the aid of North Korea 🇰🇵 should the start a new war on the Korean Peninsula.
They're also worried that North Korea 🇰🇵 will supply Russia 🇷🇺 with weapons to fight in the war in Ukraine 🇺🇦, which they're already doing. They're supplying them artillery shells since Russia 🇷🇺 burned through most of their own artillery shell supplies, and can't build their own in a timely enough manner. They're also supplying them with missiles which the Russians 🇷🇺 are using to bomb civilian infrastructure, and kill Ukrainian civilians 🇺🇦. Ukrainians 🇺🇦 right now are being killed with North Korean missiles 🇰🇵. The experts are also worried that they'll send their own troops to Ukraine 🇺🇦, which they've already agreed to do.
The North Korean troops 🇰🇵 that are being sent there, are only being sent there to work on logistics according to the North Korean government 🇰🇵, not that they're particularly trustworthy. They'll still probably pressured by their Russian commanders 🇷🇺 to jump into the meat grinder, and be cannon fodder for the Ukrainians 🇺🇦. The Ukrainians 🇺🇦 will not only have to deal with North Korean weapons 🇰🇵, but also North Korean troops 🇰🇵. Not that the North Korean troops 🇰🇵 will be that much of a threat to the Ukrainians 🇺🇦 in actual combat.
Other people are not as worried about this new Russian and North Korean alliance 🇷🇺🇰🇵, since both countries are pretty weak and have kind of demonstrated themselves to be nothing more than paper tigers. Those people have pointed out that it is an utter humiliation for Putin to have to ask the North Koreans 🇰🇵 for help since for the longest time, it was the other way around. The North Koreans 🇰🇵 always asked the Soviets ☭, and later the Russians 🇷🇺 for help, as the Soviet Union ☭ and then Russia 🇷🇺 was always the more powerful nation. But now the roles are reversed, and it's the Russians 🇷🇺 asking the North Koreans 🇰🇵 for help, and they're now more on equal footing as Russia 🇷🇺's weaknesses and military inadequacies have been laid bare. They aren't nearly as powerful as they'd like us to believe that they are.
But regardless of whether the experts think the recent Putin and Kim meeting really means anything for the future of Europe and Asia, everyone is kind of wondering how China 🇨🇳 will react to all this. China 🇨🇳 has a very complicated relationship with North Korea 🇰🇵 as I've alluded to before, and they don't always agree with everything North Korea 🇰🇵 does, even if they do publicly defend everything North Korea 🇰🇵 does, and always back them up and protect them in the UN Security Council 🇺🇳.
As some experts have pointed out—particularly those on CSIS—China 🇨🇳 doesn't actually want North Korea 🇰🇵 to be too close to Russia 🇷🇺. They hate it when North Korea 🇰🇵 gets closer to Russia 🇷🇺 as they see it as a threat to their influence over North Korea 🇰🇵, and even as a threat to their own national security. Especially as it pertains to the proliferation of nuclear weapons ☢️ in the region. They're worried that such an alliance would push South Korea 🇰🇷 and Japan 🇯🇵 to develop their own nuclear weapons ☢️ to deter North Korea 🇰🇵 and Russia 🇷🇺, and the US 🇺🇸 to increase its military presence in the region. China 🇨🇳 would much prefer it if North Korea 🇰🇵 kept Russia 🇷🇺 at an arms length.
But now, North Korea 🇰🇵 and Russia 🇷🇺 are closer than they've ever been before since the end of the Cold War, and have even formed a mutual defense treaty with each other. So, what will China 🇨🇳 do now? Very little as it turns out, unless they want to either piss off the US 🇺🇸, the EU 🇪🇺, South Korea 🇰🇷, and Japan 🇯🇵 (their biggest and most important trading partners), or piss off Russia 🇷🇺 and North Korea 🇰🇵, and other rogue states like Iran 🇮🇷 and Syria 🇸🇾. It's kind of a lose/lose situation for them, and some experts think that China 🇨🇳 will choose to do nothing since neither option will benefit them in any way. But, this is a conundrum of their own making. They pissed in their own bed, and now they have to sleep in it.
But, after visiting North Korea 🇰🇵, Putin made a stop in Vietnam 🇻🇳, which made a lot of experts baffled as to what his motives or purpose for going to Vietnam 🇻🇳 were. With North Korea 🇰🇵, it was obvious why he went there, but it was less obvious with Vietnam 🇻🇳 why he went there. This move made some experts to speculate that Putin is simply trying to hedge his bets with China 🇨🇳, as he doesn't fully trust the Chinese 🇨🇳 despite his close relationship with Xi Jinping, and he doesn't want to become a vassal of China 🇨🇳, which is exactly what Russia 🇷🇺 is becoming.
And they think that the Vietnamese 🇻🇳 had similar motive for accepting the meeting with Putin, since they have very shaky relations with China 🇨🇳, they aren't exactly on good terms with the Chinese 🇨🇳, and they still have some desire to maintain some equidistance between all three of these great powers, Russia 🇷🇺, China 🇨🇳, and the US 🇺🇸. Not wanting to side with one over the other. We'll find out what all this means in the months and years to come. I should also mention that both of Putin's most recent state visits were to countries that are not signatories of the ICC ⚖️, the International Criminal Court ⚖️.
Putin has an arrest warrant from the ICC ⚖️ for war crimes: basically kidnapping children from Ukraine 🇺🇦 and bringing them to Russia 🇷🇺 along with his Presidential Commissioner for Children's Rights, Maria Lvova-Belova. She has an arrest warrant out for her too because she's the one who's carrying out these child abductions for Putin, and Putin is the one ordering her to do this. So, obviously they both have to have arrest warrants because they're the perpetrators of this crime. Putin is the mastermind, and Lvova-Belova is the accomplice. Even the former defense minister, Sergei Shoigu has an arrest warrant from the ICC ⚖️. They conveniently issued one out for him the moment he was fired as Minister of Defense. I think even the Chief of the General Staff and First Deputy Minister of Defense, Valery Gerasimov was issued an arrest warrant too, but I'm not sure on that. But for sure, Shoigu has an arrest warrant from the ICC ⚖️.
For obvious reasons, war crimes, targeting civilian infrastructure and killing and raping civilians. Some of the worst atrocities committed by the Russians 🇷🇺 during this war so far happened on Shoigu's watch, including the Bucha massacre. He probably ordered a lot of them too, such as the targeting of civilian infrastructure, which is illegal under international law and forbidden by the agreed upon rules of war. Like, it's a blatant violation of the Geneva Convention. So yeah, Shoigu should be held accountable for that, and so should ever other Russian military leader 🇷🇺.
Now that these individuals do have arrest warrants on their heads, they cannot travel to any country that's a state party of the ICC ⚖️, otherwise they will be automatically arrested and brought before the ICC ⚖️. So, none of them can travel to Europe, they can't travel to South America, they can't travel to Canada 🇨🇦, they can't travel to Japan 🇯🇵, they can't travel to South Korea 🇰🇷, they can't travel to Australia 🇦🇺, they can't travel to New Zealand 🇳🇿, and they can't travel to a good number of African countries, including South Africa 🇿🇦, which is pretty ironic since South Africa 🇿🇦 is a member of BRICS 🇨🇳🇷🇺🇮🇳🇧🇷🇿🇦, the second rate economic bloc or organization that China 🇨🇳 and Russia 🇷🇺 created, their little wannabe EU 🇪🇺.
But, there are plenty of countries that are not signatories or state parties of the ICC ⚖️, and that includes China 🇨🇳, India 🇮🇳, Indonesia 🇮🇩, Nepal 🇳🇵, Turkey 🇹🇷, Libya 🇱🇾, South Sudan 🇸🇸, Iraq 🇮🇶, Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦, Mauritania 🇲🇷, Ethiopia 🇪🇹, Somalia 🇸🇴, Belarus 🇧🇾, Kazakhstan 🇰🇿, Myanmar 🇲🇲, and many more. North Korea 🇰🇵 and Vietnam 🇻🇳 are obviously not signatories of the ICC ⚖️, so it's pretty obvious why Putin chose those two countries as the countries that he would visit for official state visits. Because he knows that he won't be arrested and sent to The Hague the moment he sets foot there in either of those countries.
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When it comes to Taiwan 🇹🇼, and the issue over its name, and its territorial claims, it's all a carryover from when the government of Taiwan 🇹🇼, the Republic of China, or ROC for short 🇹🇼, ruled over the mainland. Most of you who are interested and invested in this issue likely know the history of why the island of Taiwan is ruled by a government called the Republic of China 🇹🇼, but in case you don't, I'll explain it to you the best I can; keep in mind, I am not expert on this topic, I know a lot of stuff about it, but I am by no means an expert, so if I get anything wrong, I'm sorry. Basically, it's a consequence of the Chinese Civil War 🇨🇳🇹🇼.
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For a period of 10 years, from 1927 to 1937, the ruling party of China 🇹🇼, the Kuomintang, or KMT for short, fought a brutal civil war against communist rebels ☭ led by one Mao Zedong. Despite their best efforts, the KMT were unable to eliminate the communists ☭, and they just fled into the countryside where they eventually found more recruits, and grew their support amongst the rural population. This event was referred to as the Long March, and it became a foundational myth for the People's Republic of China, or PRC for short 🇨🇳, but I'm getting ahead of myself.
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The civil war was paused when Japan 🇯🇵 invaded the country, and the KMT and the communists ☭ were forced to put aside their differences for a brief time and work together to fight against the invading Japanese 🇯🇵; this was became known as the Second Sino-Japanese War 🇹🇼🇯🇵. However, despite their temporarily alliance, the KMT and the communists ☭ still didn't really trust each other at all, and were spying on each other constantly, and were working behind each other's back, trying to undermine each other in hopes of coming out of the war on top.
The KMT even accused the communists ☭ of just sitting on the sidelines, letting the KMT fight the Japanese 🇯🇵 all on their own, while they did little-to-no fighting at all. Like, the communists ☭ really didn't contribute to the fight against the Japanese 🇯🇵, and were really just waiting for the KMT to become weakened and be exhausted by all the fighting that they'll be able to strike and overthrow them once the war against Japan 🇯🇵 was over.
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Of course, the war was a victory for the Chinese 🇹🇼, albeit with a lot of help and support from the Allies of World War II, mainly the United States 🇺🇸 and the United Kingdom 🇬🇧. But, as soon as the war against Japan 🇯🇵 was over, the civil war restarted in 1945 and lasted until 1947 (or rather 1950 or 1951 given the battle over Hainan and the annexation of Tibet). As you'd probably expect, the KMT lost, and they and their government, the ROC 🇹🇼, was forced to retreat and flee into Taiwan in order to prevent their government from dissolving completely, and to prevent themselves from being detained and possibly killed by the communists ☭.
So, the communists ☭ took control over most of the mainland, and established their own government, the People's Republic of China, or PRC 🇨🇳 for short. And that's been the situation ever since: the PRC 🇨🇳 is on the mainland, and the ROC 🇹🇼 is on Taiwan and the smaller surrounding islands like the Penghu Islands, Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, and Pratas Island; they had control over Hainan before the civil war and during the civil war, but they lost control over it to the PRC 🇨🇳 in 1950 during the Battle of Hainan Island.
Sort of like the Korean War 🇰🇵🇰🇷, the Chinese Civil War 🇨🇳🇹🇼 is not technically over. No peace agreement or ceasefire or armistice was ever signed at all. So, the war still technically going on, even though there really isn't any fighting. There were some skirmishes and moments of flare up between China 🇨🇳 and Taiwan 🇹🇼 referred to as the Taiwan Strait Crises. The first two Taiwan Strait Crises happened in the 1950s, while the third Taiwan Strait Crisis happened in the 1990s after Taiwan 🇹🇼 transitioned to democracy; more on that later. The US 🇺🇸 was involved in all three Taiwan Strait Crises, defending Taiwan 🇹🇼 from the attacks by China 🇨🇳.
And indeed China 🇨🇳 considers any further military action towards Taiwan 🇹🇼, like a full-scale invasion, to be a continuation of the civil war. Most of China 🇨🇳's military armament and development for the past couple of decades has mostly been driven by this one goal to take Taiwan 🇹🇼, and win total victory in the civil war, creating a fully unified China; something that the PRC 🇨🇳 has never been able to do since its foundation in 1949, and there still questions about whether it could actually do it now or not in the future.
The Chinese Communist Party 🇨🇳☭, or CCP 🇨🇳☭ for short, wants to be able to achieve this goal of taking Taiwan 🇹🇼, as well as turning China 🇨🇳 into a global superpower by the year 2049, the 100th anniversary of the PRC 🇨🇳's founding. Now, I'm pretty doubtful that they'll actually achieve that goal, and others, it just seems way too optimistic and too arrogant, and with the difficulties they're facing now and will face in the future, it's becoming more unlikely that they'll achieve any of their grandiose goals of taking Taiwan 🇹🇼 and becoming a global superpower that outmatches the US 🇺🇸 by 2049.
Now, for a period of about 24 years, Taiwan 🇹🇼 was recognized as the legitimate China, and held the China seat in the UN 🇺🇳, both in the General Assembly and the Security Council, it was one of the five permanent members of the Security Council. And indeed, the rest of the world considered Taiwan 🇹🇼 to be the legitimate China. The PRC 🇨🇳 was an unrecognized or partially recognized state for the first few decades of its existence; the only countries that recognized it during this time was the Soviet Union ☭, countries in the Communist Bloc ☭, and other communist countries ☭ in Asia such as North Korea 🇰🇵 and North Vietnam 🇻🇳.
Taiwan 🇹🇼 during this time was not a democracy, it was an authoritarian state ruled by Chiang Kai-shek, the same guy who ruled over China 🇹🇼 from 1927 (or 1928) to 1948. He led the country through the Chinese Civil War 🇹🇼🇨🇳 and the Second Sino-Japanese War 🇹🇼🇯🇵. Of course, he was a brutal dictator, no doubt about that. He perpetrated many atrocities and human rights abuses against his own people, such as the White Terror, where he declared martial law over Taiwan 🇹🇼 and killed any and all political dissenters to his regime.
This is the reason why he's such a controversial figure in modern Taiwan 🇹🇼, and why people there still debate over his legacy, whether he should be honored or condemned; he does have statues and a memorial hall built in his honor, which have also been the subject of debate and controversy. But, he was one of the reasons why Taiwan 🇹🇼 considered itself the true China, and why it held the Chinese seat at the UN 🇺🇳 because part of Taiwan 🇹🇼's condition to other countries recognizing it is that the recognize it as the "one China."
It's sort of like what the PRC 🇨🇳 does today, in pressuring and strong-arming countries into recognizing them as the the legitimate China over the ROC 🇹🇼; that's ironically become of the PRC 🇨🇳's main tactics in isolating the ROC 🇹🇼 diplomatically, and making sure as little countries recognize them as possible; their goal is to have no country in the world recognize the ROC 🇹🇼 at all, and to have it be a completely unrecognized state, as a way of demoralizing the Taiwanese 🇹🇼, and making actions towards the territory a lot easier; and yet, this was something Chiang himself was using to try to increase the amount of countries that recognize his government, his country as the legitimate China; it's like the communists ☭ are using his own tactic against his nation.
But anyway, Chiang had this fantasy in his head that some day, somehow, he and the KMT would able to "retake the Mainland" from the communists ☭ in one decisive counteroffensive, and they would be able to move the ROC 🇹🇼 back to the mainland where it belongs in his mind. This idea is what drove a lot of Chiang's repressive policies such as forcing everyone in the country to speak and write in Mandarin, even the non-Han ethnic groups like the Austronesian peoples that live there and have lived there long before any Han Chinese settled there; and why he was so adamant about the rest of the world recognizing his government as the true legitimate China.
He believed that the ROC 🇹🇼's status on Taiwan was only going to be temporary, and they just had to regroup, and reconstitute their military forces and then they'd be able to launch an amphibious assault and retake the mainland; his hope being that the people on the mainland would see him and his military forces as liberators and they would join them in revolt against the PRC 🇨🇳.
Of course, now we can see that this was just a pipe dream, and Chiang was pretty delusional for thinking that he could actually do that. Even if opponents of the PRC 🇨🇳 would want that to happen, they recognize how delusional it actually is, and how unlikely it is to ever happen. Indeed, most opponents and oppositional figures to the PRC 🇨🇳 and supporters of the ROC 🇹🇼 are not advocating for the ROC 🇹🇼 to retake the mainland. They either just want the status quo to be maintained, or Taiwan 🇹🇼 to have independence. But, back to Chiang.
He believed that this was still possible, and managed to convince a lot of people in the West that it was still possible, which is partially why his government was allowed to have the Chinese seat at the UN 🇺🇳 and maintain it for so long; the other reason was opposition to communism ☭ since this was the Cold War. But, by the year 1971, everything changed...for the worst for Chiang and Taiwan 🇹🇼. The Sino-Soviet Split 🇨🇳☭ had happened, and China 🇨🇳 had decided to move closer to the United States 🇺🇸 rather than the Soviet Union ☭.
The US 🇺🇸 had also decided to establish relations with China 🇨🇳, mostly to stick it to the Soviets ☭. And so, in the early 1970s, the US 🇺🇸 and China 🇨🇳 established friendly relations with each other, the US president 🇺🇸 at the time, Richard Nixon visited China 🇨🇳 and met Mao, and the two countries exchanged ping-pong players together at the 1971 World Table Tennis Championships in what became known as Ping-pong diplomacy.
That same year, the international community and the UN 🇺🇳 decided to recognize the PRC 🇨🇳 instead of the ROC 🇹🇼 as the legitimate China, and thus gave the Chinese seat to them, and the ROC 🇹🇼 lost its seat. Taiwan 🇹🇼 was no longer a UN member 🇺🇳. With the diplomatic tide turning against him, and the military situation looking more and more hopeless, Chiang finally started to realize that he was never going to retake the mainland, and he died in 1975, never having achieved his dream.
However, despite this, the US 🇺🇸 still agreed to maintain "unofficial" relations with Taiwan 🇹🇼, and made some security guarantees to Taiwan 🇹🇼, to militarily support them and supply them with American military arms and equipment 🇺🇸 to defend themselves against any future Chinese attacks 🇨🇳 (that's how they got F-16s among other things) as well as directly coming to their defense if necessary. But, the US 🇺🇸 has maintained a level of "strategic ambiguity" when it comes to Taiwan 🇹🇼 and whether they'd actually come to their defense or not as to not upset China 🇨🇳 or provoke China 🇨🇳, and to not be tied down by one single policy.
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That was until recently, in 2022, when President Joe Biden said in a press conference that the US 🇺🇸 would indeed come to Taiwan 🇹🇼's defense if China 🇨🇳 attempts to invade it. That's about as unambiguous as it gets. Whether the US 🇺🇸 would make good on Biden's promise if a Chinese invasion of Taiwan 🇨🇳🇹🇼 happens or not, we don't know. I hope so, because America 🇺🇸's credibility at home and abroad (mostly abroad) would be riding on it.
But, Taiwan 🇹🇼 would also still have pull some of their own weight too, and actually demonstrate an ability to defend itself (not just fully rely on the US 🇺🇸 and other countries to do all of their fighting for them) and a willingness to fight and continue fighting as long as it takes; something that Ukraine 🇺🇦 demonstrated in spades, resulting in a more unified Western response, and more robust military support short of direct involvement of NATO forces.
If Taiwan 🇹🇼 could do that, then the US 🇺🇸 and other countries like Japan 🇯🇵, South Korea 🇰🇷, Australia 🇦🇺, the UK 🇬🇧, and the Philippines 🇵🇭 will be more likely to come to their defense and support them in any way they can for as long as necessary; I doubt the Philippines 🇵🇭 would actually contribute their own military forces to the fight, but they would likely send military aid (weapons and ammunition) and humanitarian aid to Taiwan 🇹🇼, and would of course allow the US 🇺🇸 to have full access to the bases located in their country.
Taiwan 🇹🇼 actually attempted to get nuclear weapons ☢️ as a way of deterring China 🇨🇳 from attacking them during the 1960s or 1970s (I'm not exactly sure), but the US 🇺🇸 talked them out of it because they didn't want to risk nuclear war ☢️ should tensions between the two countries spill over into full-scale war; and in their mind, Taiwan 🇹🇼 getting the bomb (or trying to get the bomb) would be enough of a provocation that China 🇨🇳 may decide to retaliate and take action against them.
They didn't even agree to put Taiwan 🇹🇼 under their nuclear umbrella ☢️ like they did Japan 🇯🇵, South Korea 🇰🇷, Australia 🇦🇺, the Philippines 🇵🇭, and the countries in NATO, likely for that same reason; they didn't want to upset China 🇨🇳 or provoke them, and they didn't want to increase the risk of nuclear war ☢️ in yet another part of the world. I'm kind of surprised that Taiwan 🇹🇼 didn't just pull an Israel 🇮🇱, and just develop nuclear weapons ☢️ anyway, but in secret 🤫.
Of course, nowadays, the use of nuclear weapons ☢️ in warfare is very taboo, and very unlikely—most countries don't have a first strike policy, and instead have a defensive second or third strike policy—and most countries use nuclear weapons ☢️ as a deterrent against war rather than as a tool of war.
So, perhaps, some in the US 🇺🇸 regret not allowing Taiwan 🇹🇼 to develop its own nuclear weapons ☢️, or agreeing to put them under their nuclear umbrella ☢️, and some in Taiwan 🇹🇼 regret not developing nuclear weapons ☢️ or gaining protection under the US 🇺🇸's nuclear umbrella ☢️. Sort of like how Ukraine 🇺🇦 regrets giving up its nukes ☢️, and some Ukraine supporters 🇺🇦 in the West (particularly in America 🇺🇸) regret pressuring Ukraine 🇺🇦 into giving up its nukes ☢️ after Russia 🇷🇺 invaded.
But, going back to Taiwan 🇹🇼, and those aforementioned territorial claims, those are all carryovers from when the ROC 🇹🇼 controlled the mainland, which was from 1912 to 1949. They claim territory in Myanmar 🇲🇲, they claim territory in Bhutan 🇧🇹, they claim territory in India 🇮🇳, they claim territory in Pakistan 🇵🇰, they claim territory in Tajikistan 🇹🇯, they claim territory in Afghanistan 🇦🇫, they claim all of Mongolia 🇲🇳, and they claim territory in Russia 🇷🇺; they claim Tuva.
But, it's good to keep in mind that a lot of the countries that the ROC 🇹🇼 officially claims territory in were not independent countries yet when those territorial claims were made, and the ones that were independent countries would eventually lose their independence, which was the case with Tuva; Tuva was an independent country (albeit unrecognized except by the Soviet Union ☭), but was annexed by the Soviet Union ☭ in 1944, and it remained apart of the Russian Federation 🇷🇺 (the modern state we refer to today as Russia 🇷🇺) even after the Soviet Union ☭ collapsed.
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The only one of those that was independent at the time, and remained independent was Mongolia 🇲🇳, although it was a client state of the Soviet Union ☭ up until the collapse in 1991. The ROC 🇹🇼 actually wanted to annex Mongolia 🇲🇳, and reincorporate back into China, but the Soviet Union ☭ told them not to, and to honor, respect, and recognize its independence, in exchange for not supporting the communist rebels, which the ROC 🇹🇼 begrudgingly agreed to. The reason why the Soviets ☭ wanted Mongolia 🇲🇳 to remain independent was probably so that it would function as a buffer between the Soviet Union ☭ and China just in case relations between the two countries broke down, which they eventually did, but under a different government.
This is also likely the same reason why the Soviets ☭ also decided not to annex Mongolia 🇲🇳, and turn it into a Soviet republic ☭, despite the Mongolian government 🇲🇳 at the time (the communist government ☭) calling on them to do so; one of the few times in history where a country was demanding to be annexed by another country. The other reason being that the Soviets ☭ saw no practical reason to annex Mongolia 🇲🇳 since they had everything they could ever want from the current arrangement from it being a client state or a satellite state. So, annexing it and turning it into an Autonomous Soviet Republic ☭ like Tuva, or a fully fledged constituent Soviet republic ☭ would've been redundant.
Anyway, even when the ROC 🇹🇼 controlled the mainland, they did not control any of the other territory that they claimed. They only controlled a fraction of what they officially claimed, mainly just the main part of mainland China; they lost control over Manchuria and Inner Mongolia to Japan 🇯🇵 in the lead-up to the Second Sino-Japanese War 🇹🇼🇯🇵, and during the war, who had set up puppet governments there. They didn't control Taiwan at the time because Japan 🇯🇵 had annexed it, and turned into a colony of theirs after they defeated the Qing Dynasty in the First Sino-Japanese War 🇯🇵; they signed a peace treaty with the Qing Dynasty, in which they got territorial concessions, and one of those was Taiwan and the smaller surrounding islands like Kinmen.
They didn't even control Tibet or Xinjiang, as they had both declared independence from China after the fall of the Qing Dynasty. Xinjiang was called East Turkestan during that time, and had the blue and white Kokbayraq flag that we've seen a lot of Uyghur activists carry around today; there also currently exists an East Turkistan government-in-exile which uses the same flag. While the ROC 🇹🇼 did regain control over Xinjiang/East Turkestan, they did not regain control over Tibet. It would be the PRC 🇨🇳 that would invade and annex Tibet in 1951.
And after the ROC 🇹🇼 was kicked out of the mainland by the victorious communists ☭, and fled to Taiwan, they controlled even less of the territory they officially claimed, and have no means of acting on their claims, even if they wanted since they're confined to an island; which I'm sure Chiang, and some of the other Taiwanese leaders 🇹🇼 after him wanted to, but the current Taiwanese leadership 🇹🇼 has no desire to, and is content with what they have, what they actually control.
But, the fact that ROC 🇹🇼 still maintains these territorial claims, and still calls itself the ROC 🇹🇼, has likely partially prevented Taiwan 🇹🇼 from having the international legitimacy it desperately wants and needs, and from having full UN membership 🇺🇳. It will likely continue to be held back so long as it continues to claim to be the "one true China" or "one legitimate China."
Of course, speaking for myself for a moment, it never made sense to me why Taiwan 🇹🇼 couldn't have a seat at the UN 🇺🇳 while China 🇨🇳 also had one despite both officially claiming to be the "one China." I mean, North Korea 🇰🇵 and South Korea 🇰🇷 both have full UN membership 🇺🇳 despite both claiming to be the "real Korea" or "one true Korea" or "one Korea" or whatever. I mean, North Korea 🇰🇵 claims all of South Korea 🇰🇷 as its own territory, and South Korea 🇰🇷 vis versa. Why couldn't the same have been done for China 🇨🇳 and Taiwan 🇹🇼? It's a very similar situation as with the two Koreas 🇰🇵🇰🇷, it's not the same, but very similar.
Perhaps part of the reason it was able to be done with North Korea 🇰🇵 and South Korea 🇰🇷 is they both accept each other's existence; even if they don't want the other to exist, they accept that's the situation, that's the status quo, and it's better than the alternative, which is war. China 🇨🇳 doesn't accept Taiwan 🇹🇼's existence as an independent country. They see Taiwan 🇹🇼 as part of their own territory, as the 23rd province, and they want the rest of the world to accept that, and see their version of reality. With a mentality like that, it's very difficulty, and even close to impossible to have these two countries co-exist together and be apart of the same institution like the UN 🇺🇳.
But, anyway, this is despite the fact that Taiwan 🇹🇼 is a democratic country with free and fair elections, and is a fully developed 1st world country just like Japan 🇯🇵 and South Korea 🇰🇷. Taiwan 🇹🇼 successfully transitioned to democracy after the death of Chiang, and after his son, Chiang Ching-kuo (who was actually not his first successor, his first successor was a man ♂︎ named Yen Chia-kan or C.K. Yen) opened the country up to elections, and allowed the country to move in a more democratic direction.
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And Taiwan 🇹🇼's economy started to grow in the 1970s at a rapid pace, was considered one of the Four Asian Tigers along with South Korea 🇰🇷, Singapore 🇸🇬, and Hong Kong 🇭🇰; the name, Four Asian Tigers refers to Asian countries with strong, growing economies. While Taiwan 🇹🇼's economy certainly isn't as strong as it was in the 1970s, 80s, or even 90s, it's still considered to be one of the strongest economies in the region. In fact, the majority of the world's semiconductors are manufactured in Taiwan 🇹🇼, which gives Taiwan 🇹🇼 a level of global economic importance that it wouldn't have otherwise.
This is what separates Taiwan 🇹🇼 from a lot of other unrecognized or partially recognized states in the world. And its strong democracy, strong democratic values, and its economy may lead to things going in the right direction in terms international recognition in the future; things may look bleak now as far as Taiwan 🇹🇼's international recognition goes, but that doesn't mean it always be that way; there is a slight bit of hope for the future that things will improve. If Taiwan 🇹🇼 never transitioned to democracy, and if it had remained an authoritarian state, it would've been at an even greater disadvantage than it is right now. Certainly, it would've been a lot harder to garner sympathy for Taiwan 🇹🇼 and what it faces if it were still ruled by a one-party dictatorship.
It would've been like South Vietnam all over again. It was harder for people to sympathize with South Vietnam, and support military action to defend South Vietnam during the Vietnam War 🇻🇳 because it was an authoritarian state. It was a one-man autocratic dictatorship, and then it became a military dictatorship, and never was democratic at all. So, it was like, "Why should we even care about this? We're defending an authoritarian state from another authoritarian state."
That's why New Zealand 🇳🇿 hesitated about participating in the Vietnam War 🇻🇳 because South Vietnam was an authoritarian state despite being anti-communist 🚫☭, and they didn't want to send their own troops fight for an authoritarian anti-democratic state, and they saw it as a lose/lose situation. The free democratic and capitalistic world would lose if South Vietnam won, and they'd lose if North Vietnam 🇻🇳 won, which they did. I mean, New Zealand 🇳🇿 did ultimately join the war, but that was the main reservation they had about the war, about whether it truly was for a worthy cause or not. So, it really is a good thing that Taiwan 🇹🇼 became democratic, because it'll help its case later on in the future, especially if the worst case scenario happens.
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But, what about the Taiwanese people 🇹🇼 themselves? What is their opinion on their country's political status, and what do they want it to be. Well, as you would probably expect, the vast majority of Taiwanese 🇹🇼 want the status quo to be maintained. The Taiwanese 🇹🇼 that want full independence from China 🇨🇳 and the Taiwanese 🇹🇼 that want to reunite with China 🇨🇳 are both in the minority, and are not representative of the majority of the population.
My guess for why this is the case is that most Taiwanese 🇹🇼 believe that the status quo is the only way to keep the peace and maintain their current standard of living, and the alternatives, independence or reunification will just lead to war as they see neither of those being achieved without any bloodshed 🩸; which you can't exactly blame them for thinking that.
However, despite that, the number of Taiwanese 🇹🇼 that consider themselves exclusively Taiwanese is growing, while the numbers of Taiwanese 🇹🇼 who consider themselves exclusively Chinese or consider themselves both Taiwanese and Chinese are both decreasing. Most of the Taiwanese 🇹🇼 that see themselves as only Taiwanese are young people like in their teens, 20s, and 30s, while most of the Taiwanese 🇹🇼 that see themselves as just Chinese or both Chinese and Taiwanese are older people like in their 40s, 50s, 60s, 70s, and 80s.
There was a time when this was the opposite when the vast majority of Taiwanese citizens 🇹🇼 considered themselves to be exclusively Chinese or both Chinese and Taiwanese, despite most of them living most of their lives or their entire lives on Taiwan, and not on mainland China. But, since the 90s, that began to change.
The longer Taiwan 🇹🇼 remained separated from China, and the more the Taiwanese people 🇹🇼 saw what the Chinese government 🇨🇳 was doing to places like Tibet, Hong Kong 🇭🇰, and Xinjiang, the more young Taiwanese 🇹🇼 started to identify as Taiwanese, and refuse to identify as Chinese or both Chinese and Taiwanese. Support for the Green Coalition, and more specifically, the Democratic Progressive Party, or DPP for short (the party that President Tsai Ing-wen is a member of), started to grow, while support for the Blue Coalition, and more specifically, the KMT started to shrink.
The Green Coalition by the way refers to a group of political parties in Taiwan 🇹🇼 that tend to support Taiwanese independence 🇹🇼, as well as center-left or progressive policies, while the Blue Coalition refers to a group political parties in Taiwan 🇹🇼 that tend to support Chinese reunification, as well as center-right or conservative policies. These two coalitions are also referred to as Pan-Green or Pan-Blue. Neither coalition officially supports the PRC 🇨🇳 BTW in case you're wondering.
But there was a communist party ☭ in Taiwan 🇹🇼 that does support the PRC 🇨🇳 and does advocate for Taiwan 🇹🇼 to be reintegrated into China under the PRC's rule 🇨🇳 called the Taiwan Democratic Communist Party 🇹🇼☭, although it was dissolved in 2020, and was a very fringe party, and wasn't really apart of mainstream Taiwanese politics 🇹🇼. Another party has taken its place called the Labor Party (no relation to the Labor Party in the UK 🇬🇧), although it is still very much a fringe party with very little support or political power in the country; it is also considered a Pan-Blue party because of its pro-reunification position.
However, despite the Blue Coalition officially not supporting the PRC 🇨🇳 on paper (except for the Labor Party), they do advocate for more "friendly" relations with the PRC 🇨🇳, and are ones usually pushing for "negotiations" and "diplomacy" when tensions between China 🇨🇳 and Taiwan 🇹🇼 flare up; this includes ironically, the KMT, the same political party that fought against the CCP 🇨🇳☭ during the civil war. I mean, most recently in 2023, a KMT politician visited China 🇨🇳 and met with Chinese officials 🇨🇳 in hopes of "resolving differences" and "easing tensions," after tensions were starting to grow after President Tsai visited the US 🇺🇸.
As you could imagine, this was not a popular move in Taiwan 🇹🇼, and many don't trust the KMT or the Blue Coalition as a whole for that reason, seeing themselves as traitors or sellouts; it is hard to believe that this used to be the party of Chiang Kai-shek, and I imagine Chiang would've not been very happy what his party has become in recent years. Keep in mind, the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis happened under a KMT president, Lee Teng-hui, and yet the KMT is still cozying up to China 🇨🇳 and the CCP 🇨🇳☭ to this day.
I imagine that the CCP 🇨🇳☭ sees the KMT, Blue Coalition, as well as more fringe parties like the Labor Party as useful idiots that will help them achieve their goal of taking Taiwan 🇹🇼. So, that's why a lot of Taiwanese 🇹🇼 support the DPP and other Pan-Green parties as well as more centrist parties like the Taiwan People's Party 🇹🇼 (which advocates for maintaining the status quo) over the KMT or any of the Pan-Blue parties.
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Update (Wednesday October 4, 2023):
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There is something that I didn't really discuss about Taiwan 🇹🇼's deterrence and possible defensive strategies. Remember, how I mentioned that Taiwan 🇹🇼 once tried pursuing nuclear weapons ☢️ until the United States 🇺🇸 persuaded them not to? Well, it turns out that Taiwan 🇹🇼 developed another plan to deter China 🇨🇳, and possibly even counter China 🇨🇳 in the event of a war: the Three Gorges Dam. The Three Gorges Dam is a massive dam in central China 🇨🇳, within the Yangtze River, the longest river in Eurasia and the third longest river in the world. Its main purpose is to provide hydroelectricity ⚡️ to the surrounding province, Hubei province, and it is considered to be the largest hydroelectric power station ⚡️ in the world. It also provides clean freshwater 💦 for a huge portion of the Chinese population 🇨🇳 to use for drinking water 💦, agriculture 🌾, and industry 🏭. So, it does have a lot of importance in China 🇨🇳, especially in that region.
Now, the way it comes into play in Taiwan 🇹🇼's deterrence plan is the Taiwanese 🇹🇼 have devised a plan in which they would destroy the dam, and cause a massive flood in the surrounding areas that would deal a massive blow to China 🇨🇳's infrastructure, and cause massive disruption in China 🇨🇳's day-to-day function, and in-turn their war effort. The idea is that the mere prospect of this dam being destroyed would give the Chinese leadership 🇨🇳 pause and second thoughts about whether invading Taiwan 🇹🇼 would even be worth it if it meant the destruction of this vitally important dam, the billions of dollars 💵 worth of property damage, and the potential deaths of millions.
Now, this plan is actually pretty recent relatively speaking, as it was devised in the 1990s, at a time when Taiwan 🇹🇼 was democratizing, and tensions with China 🇨🇳 were teetering on the edge. I mean, that was the decade of the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis when China 🇨🇳 conducted a series of missile tests and mobilized forces in Fujian province as a way of intimidating Taiwan 🇹🇼 after the president at the time did some things that the Chinese government 🇨🇳 didn't like. And I think that Taiwan 🇹🇼 partially drafted this plan because they weren't allowed to develop nuclear weapons ☢️ and weren't put under the US 🇺🇸's nuclear umbrella ☢️, a security guarantee in which the US 🇺🇸 would use their own nukes ☢️ against an aggressor who launched nukes ☢️ at one of their allies under this metaphorical umbrella. So, they got creative, and came with a deterrent in their minds that would be almost as devastating as a nuke ☢️.
But, despite this plan being around since the 90s, it's only now that it's gaining more media traction online and in traditional TV news media, since tensions between China 🇨🇳 and Taiwan 🇹🇼 are higher than they've ever been in decades, and the two countries are becoming increasingly more hostile to each other. And it's gained a lot of criticism as you might expect because it is such an evil plan for lack of a better word. I mean, it's the explicit targeting of civilian infrastructure, and would mainly kill and injure civilians. That would basically be a war crime, Taiwan 🇹🇼 would be committing a war crime if they went forward with this plan, and succeeded in destroying the dam.
I mean, Russia 🇷🇺 received a lot of criticism and condemnation when they destroyed the Kakhovka Dam in southern Ukraine 🇺🇦, and rightfully so. And keep in mind, only 58 people were killed by the destruction of that dam, which is a lot, but could've been a lot worse. If Taiwan 🇹🇼 destroyed the Three Gorges Dam, we're talking millions of deaths, because the dam covers a 1200 km area, across the 6300 km stretch of the Yangtze River, in a basin area of 1.8 million square km, and its reservoir is capable of holding 39.3 billion cubic meters of water 💦 at its maximum. The basin area that river and dam is located in has over 175 cities and 550 million people; one of those cities happens to be Shanghai, one of the most important Chinese cities 🇨🇳, and one of the top financial hubs of the world. The dam is also upstream from about 400 million people, nearly 30% of China 🇨🇳's population.
So, the devastation incurred by Taiwan 🇹🇼 destroying that dam would be nothing short of apocalyptic, and potentially tens of millions of people could potentially lose their lives. It would also probably cause massive food and water shortages 💦🌾 since China 🇨🇳's entire food and water supply 🌾💦 is dependent on this basin, the Yangtze River basin, and the Three Gorges Dam in-turn. That would potentially mean economic struggle and even more deaths, possibly even after the guns go silent. This alone would make this war the deadliest one since the Second World War.
If Taiwan 🇹🇼 did something like that, they'd potentially lose a lot of support internationally, and would probably play into China 🇨🇳's hand, giving them an easy propaganda victory, and allowing them to point to them and say, "You see, Taiwan 🇹🇼 is an evil separatist province that needs to be 'pacified' and be 'demilitarized.' Our military operation is justified." And if the operation to destroy the dam fails, and it's still standing, then the Taiwanese 🇹🇼 (and the Americans 🇺🇸) would just look foolish. This would not happen if Taiwan 🇹🇼 just focused on destroying explicitly military targets.
But, the Taiwanese 🇹🇼 have stressed that this is only meant to be a deterrent, to deter China 🇨🇳 from invading, and put the safety of their people and their infrastructure first before their territorial ambitions. And they said they would only really use it if they were truly desperate, and felt there was no other option. That probably doesn't calm anyone's nerves about this plan, but that is what the Taiwanese 🇹🇼 have said. For a country without nukes ☢️ and the ability to ever acquire nukes ☢️ (at least, anytime soon), this is as close to a nuclear option ☢️ as they're ever going to get.
Hopefully, it never comes to this, and Taiwan 🇹🇼 never has to implement this plan, but it is a fairly decent way of striking fear into the thoughts of Chinese leaders 🇨🇳. If this plans scares even people in the West, then you better believe it scares Beijing, if they even know about it. This plan probably brings about a sobering and sickening feeling in Taipei as well, as I doubt very few Taiwanese leaders 🇹🇼 want to implement this plan unless it's absolutely necessary.
They mainly just want to use the plan as a deterrent against China 🇨🇳, and just leave it at that, which, good for them. We have the luxury of having a nuclear deterrent ☢️, and we don't have to worry about an invasion of our country by another country because of that nuclear deterrent ☢️. And we have denied the Taiwanese 🇹🇼 the ability the develop their own nuclear deterrent ☢️, and we have denied them access to our nuclear deterrent ☢️. So, they have come up with different plans and strategies to defend themselves, and even deter China 🇨🇳 from invading at all, no matter how messed up that plan may seem.
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